Serbia on the Brink of a Coup?

Recently, according to a report by Sputnik News, Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin stated in an interview that Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić is in danger, following the assassination attempts on Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump. Vulin noted, "All those advocating for a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine conflict have faced some kind of trouble—someone has taken a shot at them."

Vulin further explained, "Vučić’s life is under threat from those who want Serbia to abandon its military neutrality, impose sanctions on Russia, recognize Kosovo's independence, and give up on Republika Srpska. These threats are numerous, but none come from the East. Vučić is also being threatened by drug trafficking groups, whose members we've exposed and are now on the run."

Vulin emphasized that without the support of a strong intelligence agency, such a large and organized crime group could not exist. He called for increased security measures to protect Vučić. Vučić's life has been under threat for a long time, especially since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has significantly increased the pressure on him due to his firm stance.

Vučić Faces Tremendous Challenges

Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia has been subjected to energy sanctions by Western nations. Defying U.S. demands, Vučić refused to sanction Russian energy and instead signed a low-cost energy deal with Russia, angering the Western countries.

Not long after, tensions in Kosovo flared as ethnic Serbs clashed with local Albanian police. The U.S., NATO, and the EU have been pressuring Serbia, urging Vučić to "show the utmost determination and willingness to make difficult decisions" to advance dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia under the EU's mediation.

Last May, mass protests triggered by two large-scale shootings in Serbia evolved into violent demonstrations. The U.S.-backed opposition took the opportunity to incite public sentiment, demanding Vučić step down. In September, a group of Serbs set up truck barricades at the entrance of Banjska village in northern Kosovo. When Kosovo police arrived to dismantle the barricades, clashes erupted, resulting in the death of one Kosovo police officer, four Serbs, and the arrest of eight Serbs.

Days later, NATO unilaterally announced its approval of troop reinforcements in Kosovo, though the specific countries contributing troops and the number of reinforcements were not disclosed. The UK, however, was quick to announce that it had handed over the command of one battalion to NATO. In response, Serbia began large-scale military mobilizations near the Kosovo border. On August 10, massive protests erupted in Belgrade, Serbia’s capital, with thousands of demonstrators flooding the city center to oppose the development of lithium mining in western Serbia.

These events pose significant dangers not only to Vučić but also to Serbia as a nation.

Vučić’s "Ace in the Hole"

The reason Serbia has not yet reached an unmanageable situation is largely due to its strong ties with Russia and China.

In December last year, Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabić expressed her gratitude to Russian intelligence for warning of impending unrest in Belgrade.

In August this year, Vučić stated, "We received official information from Russia, which was delivered through official channels. We are dealing with this matter. Security and intelligence agencies, along with experts, are working on it."

Historically, Serbia's intelligence operations have been relatively isolated, and without Russia's support, Serbia would face numerous crises.

Reflecting on 1999, if it weren’t for Russia's legendary intervention, Serbia might not even exist today, or at least not in its current state.

As for China, Vučić has always emphasized the strong friendship between Serbia and China, often referring to them as "iron brothers." China has never disappointed Serbia, providing substantial infrastructure support and bolstering Serbia's economic development.

Additionally, in July this year, the China-Serbia Free Trade Agreement came into effect, which will undoubtedly boost future trade between the two nations.

In recent years, Vučić has indeed faced considerable challenges. On one hand, he has to balance the pressure from Western countries, while on the other, he must manage internal conflicts and protests. However, with Russia and China as Serbia’s staunch allies, Vučić remains steadfast in his fight for his country and its people.