The Islamic State tries to reorganize to survive

The jihadist group Islamic State (ISIS) is in full reorganization to try to survive the defeats in Syria and Iraq, where four years ago proclaimed a caliphate after having seized extensive territories.

The group has been expelled from almost all of these areas and must find "a new way of acting, especially to recruit after their huge casualties," says a head of Iraqi security services who requested anonymity, said AFP.

The priority for ISIS, which dreamed of becoming a "State", is an administrative reorganization.

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The 35 "wilaya" (provinces, in Arabic) that formed the "caliphate" are over. After the loss of its two "capitals", Raqa in Syria and Mosul in Iraq, ISIS only mentions six "wilaya" in its propaganda organs.

And to designate them it uses again the known territorial definitions: Iraq, Syria, east of Asia, Tajikistan, the Egyptian Sinai and Somalia.

The "wilaya" of Mosul, Raqa or Kirkuk have completely disappeared from the discourse of the group of Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, being reduced to "cantons" ("mantaqa").

In 2014, even before the public appearance of the "caliph" and the proclamation of the "Islamic State", ISIS presumed to have finished with the "imperialist" border tracing applied by the British and French on the former territories of the Ottoman Empire at the end of the first World War.

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In fact, in 2014, the jihadist propaganda spread images of bulldozers trying to erase the border between Syria and Iraq.

That is also over. Now Iraqi forces have redeployed on the border where once the jihadists circulated freely.

On the Syrian side, the Damascus and Kurdish-Arab troops backed by the international anti-ISIS coalition also regained border areas.

The number of ISIS troops is unknown but it is undoubted that "he is weakened and has reorganized the command," explains the head of the Iraqi security services. "This shows the loss of confidence of the leadership of ISIS with respect to its wilaya commanders in Iraq, to ​​whom it reduced the prerogatives," he adds.

With some frequency, the Iraqi authorities announce the capture or death of those responsible for ISIS or people from around Baghdad, such as their son, who was killed in Syria in July when he was hit by Russian guided missiles. Bagdadi himself was presumed dead several times and the United States offers 25 million dollars for his capture.

This month, in his last sound recording, the fourth since he was proclaimed "commander of the believers", Al Baghdadi multiplies the words of "consolation and condolences", emphasizes Hicham al Hashemi, expert in radical Islamist groups.

In this sermon by the Eid al Adha, the Muslim feast of sacrifice, the calls to resist and to continue the "jihad" hide an air of defeat, he says.

For the first time, Bagdadi himself urges his supporters in the West to carry out attacks in their countries. "They're worth a thousand here," he says.

"After having lost control in Iraq and Syria, the leadership of ISIS is now focused on a global vision" as Al Qaeda did, says the Iraqi source. He wants to sow terror in the world.

In the recording of 55 minutes, Bagdadi takes up a discourse of Al Qaeda. It lashes out against the United States, mentions Shia Iran, appeals to Sunnis in Iraq and denounces the Iraqi paramilitary units of the Hashd al Shaabi, in which the Shiites predominate, Hachemi enumerates.

"The three previous Baghdadi speeches were framed in a 'crisis communication' and the last speech falls into the same category," says Tore Hamming, an expert in jihadism at the European University Institute.

Islamic State group blamed for suicide attack in Kabul

The terrorist group Islamic State (EI) claimed responsibility Thursday for an attack on an educational center in a Shiite majority neighborhood of Kabul, which caused at least 34 dead and 56 wounded on Wednesday.

The Amaq agency, linked to the EI, identified the author of the attack as the "brother martyr" Abdulrauf al Jorasani, in a communiqué broadcast through Telegram whose authenticity could not be proven.

The terrorist detonated a belt of explosives in a "center of renegade apostates", words with which the jihadist group usually refers to the minority Shia community in Afghanistan.

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According to the note of the propaganda organ of the IS, the attack caused more than 200 casualties among the dead and wounded.

The Afghan government lowered the number of deaths in the suicide attack from 48 to 34 on Thursday, after detecting that some victims had been counted twice.

The attack occurred early yesterday afternoon when a terrorist detonated the explosives that he carried inside the school, where hundreds of students were studying at that time.

The detonation took place on the last floor of the building, where high school students were prepared for their entrance exams to the university.

The IS has carried out frequent attacks against the Hazara ethnic minority - which Shi'a Islam professes - of Afghanistan, but it is not usual for it to attack private schools.

The latest attack on the Shia community took place earlier this month in Paktia province in eastern Afghanistan, where 30 people were killed and 81 wounded in an attack on a mosque.

Counting the members of the Islamic State is an impossible task

His self-proclaimed "Caliph" called them to "continue with the Jihad", perpetrate deadly attacks, threaten their countries of origin ... But how many fighters from the jihadist Islamic State (ISIS) group are really left in Iraq and Syria?

There are very different estimates, officials and experts say, explaining that it is difficult to establish an exact figure in the face of the inability of independent experts to access these countries, said AFP.

"In December 2017, the spokesman for the US-led coalition estimated the number of ISIS fighters left in Syria and Iraq to be 1,000," said security consultant Soufan Group.

The US Department of Defense recently estimated that between 15,500 and 17,000 ISIS jihadists remain in Iraq and some 14,000 in Syria, while UN observers think there would be between 20,000 and 30,000 fighters in both countries.

This uncertainty about the exact number of ISIS fighters has existed since the band's birth in 2014. The spokesman for the US-led international coalition fighting in Syria and Iraq against ISIS, Colonel Sean Ryan, also considered "unimportant. "to the leadership of the jihadist group, represented by Abu Bakr Al Bagdadi.

"For now, in the first place we are looking to beat what is left of ISIS, whether Baghdadi remains here or not, it does not matter," Ryan said in a telephone conversation with reporters after the latest message attributed to the leader of the group released on Wednesday. in which he called to continue "jihad". "It has become useless and vain, and we are no longer really concerned about the comments of the leadership of ISIS," the spokesman added. "Your leadership does not matter," he said.

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ISIS was born from movements that were in the dark for years in Iraq, then volunteers from across the region and later from around the world joined. Also at that time, the international secret services had only rough estimates of their strength.

"Currently, the main difficulty is that we do not know how many fighters have died in coalition, Russian, Iraqi or Turkish operations," said Jean-Charles Brisard, president of the Center for the Analysis of Terrorism, based in Paris.

"The bodies of the jihadists killed in those airstrikes are often under rubble and no one is going to look for them, and as long as we do not know they are dead, they are considered alive," he added. Tore Hamming, specialist in jihadism at the European University Institute questions the figure estimated by the UN experts. "I do not believe in that number," he said.

"But I also think that it is impossible to determine it accurately, we should start by defining who are members or combatants of ISIS ... In 2015 some gave a figure of 200,000 men, because they included all the people who worked in the administration of the group. These new figures include those who carry weapons or all those who work for the cause? No one knows. "

Another difficulty in establishing an accurate estimate is the porosity at the border between Syria and Turkey. The Turkish army strengthened its controls but local smugglers can help them pass, if they pay the price.

"Numerous jihadists clandestinely crossed into Turkey and are still there while waiting to go to another area of operations," said Hamming. "It is very difficult to estimate how many crossed, but it is known that ISIS has been transferring to Turkey for some time the important individuals for the organization, to be able to redeploy them later".

For the Soufan Group experts, although ISIS has lost ground, "it remains one of the most powerful terrorist groups in history, and it does not lack weapons or fighters."

More than 150 dead in wave of attacks of the Islamic State in Syria

The Islamic State Jihadist group (ISIS) killed more than 150 people with suicide attacks in southern Syria on Wednesday, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (OSDH) reported on the balance sheet of one of the bloodiest attacks in the last months.

At least "62 civilians are among the dead," said OSDH director Rami Abdel Rahman. In a statement on the Telegram application, the Islamic State said that "caliphate soldiers" attacked security positions and targets of the government in the city of Sueida, said AFP.

The attacks took place in the southern province of Sueida, controlled by the regime of Bashar Al Assad. The ISIS groups are present in a desert area in the northeast of this region. "This is the most critical balance in this province since the beginning of the conflict" in 2011, Rahman said.

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According to Syrian official media, the regime forces initiated a counter-offensive to drive out the jihadists. The Syrian army carried out aerial bombardments against the extremist group, which suffered 21 casualties among its combatants, the OSDH reported. "Four suicide bombers blew up their explosives belts in the city of Sueida," the capital of the region with the same name, explained the OSDH director. Other suicide attacks took place in other towns in the northeast of the province of Sueida, before being attacked by jihadist groups, the OSDH directorate added.

The extremist group managed to take control of three locations. "In addition to the suicide bombings, the jihadists attacked several villages and murdered some of their inhabitants in their homes," Rahman said. The official Sana news agency and the state television network confirmed the presence of dead and wounded by these attacks in the province of Sueida, although they did not give an exact balance.

"Army units initiated a counter-offensive to stop the Daesh terrorists," reported state television that uses the Arabic acronym of ISIS.

The images broadcast of the attacks by the Syrian official media show a corpse next to a demolished wall in the city of Sueida, which lies on the ground next to puddles of blood.

According to the director of the OSDH, the attacks of ISIS on Wednesday are the bloodiest of recent months in Syria, where the jihadist organization does not stop chaining defeats and controls less than 3% of the territory. These attacks come at a time when the regime already controls 90% of the southern provinces of Deraa and Quneitra, following its devastating military offensive in June.

According to the Sana news agency, the attacks of the ISIS aimed to "reduce the military pressure" of the Syrian army against the last jihadists "who will be killed in the province of Deraa."

The fighting against ISIS in Deir Ezzor, will still last "at least two or three months," said General Francois Parisot, commander of the French forces in the international coalition led by the United States. More than 350,000 people have died since the beginning of the war in Syria in 2011, a conflict that intensified with the involvement of foreign countries and jihadist groups.

My Analysis and Personal Summary of the Publication

For many years the Islamic State has lived in a constant war, where thousands of people have died, it is difficult to explain how difficult it is to fight with a group of people who believe they have the power to control the lives of others, where communities It is not the fault of what is happening, they are the first to receive this punishment.

In 2014, even before the public appearance of the "Caliph" and the proclamation of the "Islamic State", ISIS supposed that it had ended the "imperialist" border tracing applied by the British and the French in the former territories of the Ottoman Empire in the end of the First World War.

Let's take in that this country has as ideology the power of war which governs a whole country, which every day lives a hell, which is considered by millions of people hell on earth.

When the government of the United States began the hunt of the terrorist group ISIS, a power battle was generated within this group, where the most important dances were subject to an ideology of death and power. With some frequency, the Iraqi authorities announce the capture or death of those responsible for ISIS or people from all over Baghdad, such as their son, who was killed in Syria in July when he was hit by Russian guided missiles. Bagdadi himself was allegedly killed several times and the United States offers 25 million dollars for his capture.

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