Nepal elections: An India-China battle at the ballot box

Nepal votes, in the first round of a two-phase election, on Sunday. The outcome will not just decide the internal balance of power in the country, but will also shape the external balance and determine whether India continues to be the decisive and dominant actor in the country, or whether Nepal’s shift northward towards China deepens. Indeed, Nepal joins a list of other South Asian countries where India and China are competing through their favoured domestic allies at the ballot box.

The primary battle in the election is between the Nepali Congress (NC) led by PM Sher Bahadur Deuba and a new left alliance - of the Communist Party of Nepal (UML) led by K P Oli and Maoists led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda”. Madhesi parties of the Tarai are fighting polls independently in their region of influence, but are expected to support NC after the polls.

The internal dynamics

First, the internal significance.

This is the first election after Nepal promulgated a federal democratic republican constitution back in September 2015. Polling is happening for both national parliament and provincial legislatures across seven newly created states. It will institutionalise the constitution, and mark an end to a prolonged political transition which saw the monarchy abolished and Maoists become a part of the mainstream politics of the country.

The constitution was deeply contested - and led to protests by Madhesis of the southern plains, bordering India, who argued that the constitution had eroded their representation and gerrymandered the federal units to divide and weaken them. The country’s political elite responded and passed one amendment, but key demands remained unaddressed. Despite their reservations over parts of the constitution, the Madhesis are participating in the election.