Migration Flows 2018 Stable

The immigrant population in Italy has been stationary for years. With the crisis, job entrances have diminished, as have reunions and births. And it's early to see the effects of the economic recovery. In 2018 the situation will not change.

Immigration stops

2018, as far as it is possible to foresee, will not see an increase in migratory flows towards Italy.

In reality, contrary to what is commonly thought, the volume of the immigrant population in Italy has been stationary for years. Just over 5 million people, including 1.2 million Romanian citizens and other immigrants from within the EU.

The long economic crisis is the main explanation. In the past, governments of all colors have promulgated seven amnesties over 25 years, plus other minor or hidden measures for unauthorized immigrants (thus in more recent cases, not EU citizens with free movement rights). The Italian amnesties were concessions to employers, entrepreneurs and family members, authorized to formalize the employment of immigrants who had already arrived (mostly with tourist visas, if necessary) and had been hired informally. In other words, the market for several years has upset the prudent forecasts of the entry quotas established by the state and eventually led it to recognize (wisely) the accomplished fact. After entry for work, family reunification took place, the children arrived and others were born in Italy. Today immigration settled in Italy is predominantly European, female, coming from countries of Christian cultural tradition.

In recent years, due to the crisis, however, reunion has almost come to an end, and even the births of immigrant parents have declined. The demographic contribution of the immigrants is there, but it is currently stagnating and will not solve the problem of the empty cradles of our country. In 2016, 69,000 children were born from immigrant parents, 14.7 percent of the total. The number has been falling for years: in 2012 there were almost 80,000 births.

So the market has stopped driving the growth of the immigrant population. Only if the ongoing recovery will produce a substantial increase in the demand for low-skilled jobs, labor immigration will restart. Probably, the first area to be positively affected will be the domestic one: a growth in employment of Italian middle-class women will produce a new demand for help for family tasks. As a general rule, there is a correlation between increased domestic employment and the entry of new immigrants: immigration is a rather accurate seismograph of the health status of an economy. But in 2018 it will still be early to see the effects of attracting new arrivals of workers, taking into account that unemployment rates remain high among established immigrants.

Access to citizenship and asylum applications

In the same period, the conditions for access to the citizenship of several immigrants who arrived during the years of the true growth of the immigrant population have come to maturity, when the entries reached figures of 400 thousand per year. 178 thousand immigrants have become Italians in 2015, about 200 thousand in 2016. Overall, about one million Italians have arrived from abroad or are children of immigrants. Naturalizations decrease the number of immigrants from a statistical point of view, and sometimes they are useful for those interested in moving to other EU countries. In future we will have to get used to distinguishing, as far as possible, between "immigrants" and "people of immigrant origin": the second group can increase even if the first stagnation.

As for asylum seekers who have occupied the media scene in recent years, the actual numbers have never been dramatic. At the end of 2016, 250 thousand of asylum seekers and recognized refugees (Unhcr data, 2017). Up until two years ago, only a fraction of the landed requested asylum in Italy. In 2014, out of 170 thousand disembarked less than 70 thousand had requested international protection from our government. Then the EU imposed hotspots on us, our neighbors tightened border controls and asylum applications rose, reaching 123.482 in 2016. The share compared to landings rose from 37 percent in 2014 to 56 percent in 2015 and to 68 percent in 2016.

The agreements with Niger and, above all, with the Libyan government and tribes, along with the campaign of discredit against non-governmental organizations involved in sea rescues drastically reduced arrivals. In 2017, 119 thousand people have landed, compared to 180 thousand in 2016. From July onwards, the drop was very rapid. A good news for most of the public opinion, a bad news for those seeking asylum and for those who consider the protection of human rights as a priority. Even if the picture were to evolve over the course of the year, migrants had to find new routes, international institutions were able to break the agreements with the Libyans or finish the money to forage local authorities and forces, some increase in landings will not change the overall figures immigration.