40% of Segwit has been implemented so far after 1+ year which still caps the blocksize just over 1MB. The problem with 2nd layer like lightening network is going to be getting everyone to adopt it including exchanges and wallets.

Just look how slow Segwit is being adopted. LN is even harder and still requires user to make onchain transaction fee but how with a 1MB block without paying huge fees?

Once usage picks up fees have no where to go but up exponentially like at end of 2018. This time I think fees could hit up to $200 before the final flippening.

Ethereum also current suffers from these same issues. Possibly even great since it's running 1000's of dapps and tokens + a transactional currency.

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are running big risk being disrupted by more advanced scalable blockchains like for example EOS, NEO both live with a decent size working ec0-system.

The is going to be a long game of chicken in mouse next 2 years. Who is going to scale and hit critical mass first?

Today it would seem like Bitcoin according to market prices but I am very skepical Lightening is going to solve Bitcoin scaling problems at least anytime in the next 3 years. LN is like creating a whole new network - chicken and egg problem.