Cindicator - Hybrid Intelligence for Financial Markets - September 12

Cindicator - Hybrid Intelligence for Financial Markets - September 12
https://cindicator.com/

The main problem in current financial analytics is centralization, according to Mike Brusov, CEO of Cindicator, who uses the wisdom of the crowd to answer questions about the markets. This is because analysts group their forecasts and opinions in the public domain, and these opinions influence the opinions of other analysts.

Cindicator overcomes this trend of centralization by combining opinion from a wide range of different weather forecasters from different countries with different professional experience, with different personal experiences. The results, which, like the forecasting market, are always more accurate than even the most expert opinions, are sold to hedge funds and traders seeking an advantage.

Brusov conducted a simple experiment to show how the displacement affects the prediction. Using Facebook, he showed an image of a packet of nuts and asked a group of friends to guess the number. The first time he conducted the test, he asked his friends to reply only in the comments so that they could see other answers. The responses shown influenced other answers, and as a result, Brusov's average forecast, received from his friend-crowd, was not very accurate.

When he repeated the experiment, but asked his friends to use a direct message, the average prediction turned out to be much more accurate. He said that out of 100 people, some said that 50 nuts, others said that 600, but on average from the crowd was 321. The picture was 329.

"We are not a forecasting market," says Brusov. "Therefore, our forecasters do not risk their money, we motivate them to win a real cash prize at the end of each month. The prize money is about 2000 dollars a month, and we will share this prize among the first 2% of the forecasters."

Brusov said that the secondary, long-term motivation is that weather forecasters like to use the application to test their trading or investment skills. "Our users like to demonstrate their ability to make a more accurate prediction than, for example, a professional analyst from Wall Street. And people like to publicly demonstrate their point of view about nothing - finance, politics, etc. "

Access to the platform and its real-time indicators come on a monthly subscription, and from here the prize money is scalped. Since the launch in July this year, the service has been captured by hedge funds and traders. Cindicator also opened its own trading account a couple of months ago, using only its crowd indicators.

"We opened an account for 100 000 dollars, and in the first month of trading we received an income of about 50 000 dollars. We explained and showed all our offers in the blog on an average level, so that everyone could see this public experiment, "said Brusov.

He explained that the system includes four types of indicators: stocks, futures, financial reports and some political news that can directly or indirectly affect financial markets and discard share prices.

Two financial analysts daily generate about 10 or 15 yes / no questions; In addition, the service automatically added the generated questions to the bot (5-7 questions per day). The questions concern the maximum and minimum price for any financial asset per week. The audience chooses the probability for each event. The answers are compared, and the average probability is the indicator of the crowd.

Brusov said that such systems as "Evaluation" have a similar idea, except that they are predicted only by professional analysts. In the long run, a more diverse crowd will always be more accurate, he said. Currently, the system has 5000 weather forecasters, and Brusov plans to use 30,000 by the end of this year.

There are two subscription plans: a basic subscription is about $ 200 per month, which provides daily access to daily messages and access to weekly alerts about any requested asset. A corporate plan is created that allows firms to create their own questions and customize their ideas, as well as access to all data and signals via the API for use in trading algorithms, for example.

"We started working in the financial markets, because every day traders try to predict the movement of prices," Brusov said. "But financial markets are just the beginning. Our solution we can integrate into different areas, such as politics, sport or a corporate decision. "

https://cindicator.com/
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