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RE: If the government is printing trillions why is there no hyperinflation?

in #hyperinflation8 years ago (edited)

No hyperinflation - yet. The main driver is a lack of wage pressure because we've shifted from a labor driven economy to a capital driven economy. Without wage pressure, a vital link is lost. At the same time, capital assets have appreciated considerably or at have at least been held in check since 2008. Housing, college, healthcare, property taxes, quality groceries - all are becoming prohibitively expensive, while savers lose the ability to earn income or exert wage pressure. This loss of purchasing power is less obvious but very real, and the inflationary process has been slowed considerably. That doesn't mean the end game (hyperinflation) won't come. We'll likely see it accelerate if the current proposals for fiscal stimulus are pursued in scale. That will bring wage pressures back into the equation - especially for skilled trades.

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Central banks in the US and EU actually have had the opposite problem = creating a normal level of inflation of 2-3%. This level of inflation is a product of a healthy, growing economy.

As for why there is no hyperinflation since QE started in 2008, lack of wage pressure due to immigration and automation is one reason. But the main reason is that inflation comes not from M0, but from M2 money banks create and lend via fractional reserve. Banks have been sitting on this and very stingy with loans... except among themselves and corporate partners.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/022615/why-didnt-quantitative-easing-lead-hyperinflation.asp

Also, a big reason is that the USD is the world's reserve currency. Guess what Venezuela's main currency is today? Right, the USD. Guess what people want in a war zone? Right, the USD. Guess what many central banks are holding in reserve? Right, the USD. By being the world's reserve currency one can "export inflation" to a large degree.

So the Armageddon, hyperinflation, permabear, gold bug, survivalist crowd has been dead wrong for almost a decade while world stock markets have staged a record rally since 2008 lows . Maybe their day will come, but it's not around the corner unless terror attacks go nuclear.

Hubris is not a strategy. One can "export inflation", until the rest of the world adjusts, and it always does. Every system reverts to equilibrium.

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