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RE: Permaculture Principle #2: Catch and Store Energy
The world oil production chart is rather misleading, to say at least. It's factually incorrect. Here's a recent data set:
https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/key-world-energy-statistics.html
Thanks for the note. I will update the post. Although the link you provided has no graphics. Any other lead to a more accurate representation of how screwed or energy supplies are?
@bobydimitrov the post is updated and includes your link. Much appreciated. Aside from the one factual mistake, curious to hear what you think of the post. Cheers for now. Shad
Heya Shad, I've watched all your videos and much appreciate your work in Guatemala. Respect! I found out about Atitlan Organics via a discussion during an Oregon University introduction to permaculture course!
I wholeheartedly agree with the general statement of the post, as well as the 12 principles. Regarding our energy "supplies"... much can be said, not all of it grim!
You probably know better than me the "flow" of the energy we get from the sun and some systems on Earth, like hydrology, is plenty and more than enough if harnessed properly and used as much as possible. Currently we suck massively at that - less then 2% of world's energy needs come from solar/wind/geothermal! We're currently living on a "stock" of energy that is limited and is being depleted.
IMHO, a transition is possible and I'm still hoping we'll have the time and providence to slide along the "Green Tech" curve. I take it you're acquainted with the 4 scenarios of Holmgren?
I'm just not the alarmist type. I try to do my best to help people transition to a more sustainable lifestyle and those of us in a position to do so - a transition to a regenerative actions.
If you download the PDF at the address I posted above, you'll see that the world crude oil production has not peaked yet. There are plenty of informative graphs in there, but they do not push the alarmist agenda, so they're not quite as popular.
There's not a stable trend of declining production. The main problem is not the production, as the original chart implies, but increasing consumption while the production is not increasing at the same rate.
In other words, we've got more than plenty crude oil in the ground. I think in time it'll just become too expensive for general consumption (i.e. - transportation; currently over 60% of all crude oil is used as fuel). At that time transport will probably be mostly electric. But for industrial production and use, there's decades and decades of resource. Probably even centuries, if we're looking at just the current goods manufacturing.
And we need that, because all those modern "sustainable" solutions like PV panels and turbines, even a ram pump need industrial system in place to produce the components. Barring a "Earth Steward" scenario, I think it's likely we'll be in transition for a good portion of the century.
So while I encourage people to live a life that's less destructive to the planet, I'm not the one to shout "the sky is falling!"
Then again, if we're talking a total collapse, as in the "Earth Steward" scenario, crude oil production rate won't be of much importance. So if you're hoping for such an outcome, posting a graph like that does not really help.
Sorry for the lengthy reply, it came out a bit like a post of its own! Cheers!