Currently the distribution depends on the number of active players by a bit.
Don't have a number as I am not on my PC. I think the distribution was over 300 million over the last 7 days.

The burn rate is only lower than the distribution because players bet on the future of the game and the coming ingame usecases of breadcrumbs. Otherwise the price should be: prize pool / circulating supply.

If the distribution is continous higher than the burn rate the price will fall. We are at the start so the inflation is still extremely high.