Why HODLing is for fools

This is going to upset a lot of you. It is going to upset you because I just told you that the religion of HODLing is a scheme, a falsity, a way to make money off of you. Before I skin you alive emotionally and destroy your precious GOD, I want to define for you exactly what is meant by HODLing. The simplest definition is: Never sell BTC, ever.

Let me just prove it to you mathematically. There is no other logical way. As BTC owners and believers in the technology, math is our bible and is the truth. I want to use an example. I am going to use real numbers here. "I know this guy".

I know this guy that owns a modest amount of BTC. He started buying in September and accumulated about .315 BTC (315 mBTC). His total investment ws $2000. His last buy was for $500 when BTC was $10,800. At $10,800, his BTC is worth $3400. He put this 315 mBTC in cold storage. Then he started to accumulate even more because the price just kept going up. His buying pattern was as follows.

$300 at $13500 (22 mBTC)
$500 at $16,100 (31 mBTC)
$500 at $17,000 (29 mBTC)
$500 at $17,100 (29 mBTC)

This is a total of .11192964BTC (112 mBTC) which he kept on his exchange.

When the top hit at $19,600-$20,000 it was obvious that it was time to take some profit. This is up for debate of course because nobody knows the top for sure. However this is when HODLing and taking profit collide. This is when the HODLers pray to their GOD and the smart people take some profit. I think unless you are totally blind, which some of us are because of the HODLing cult, you could see that there was no chance that the meteoric rise of BTC was going to continue.

When the price of BTC hit 20k the total worth of his stack (427 mBTC) was worth $8,540 on an investment of $3800. 315 mBTC is on a wallet that would take too much time and fees to get to an exchange. 112 mBTC is on his exchange. 26% of his stack is liquid. He could turn it into dollars at any time without any issues. This is key. If you are on an exchange that is not going to allow you to convert, this will not work. Now for the upshot.

Picture perfect scenario: Ideally you want to sell at the top. 112 mBTC at 20K is $2,240. Wait a few days and the bubble pops and the price of BTC falls to a low of $10,600. Buying at the very bottom maximizes your profit. $2,240 is then turned into BTC at $10,600. This is known as buying the dip. Now magically the 112 mBTC on the exchange is 211 mBTC. This is a gain of 99 mBTC. Magic. At the current time (December 24th 1:35pm PST) at the price of $13,500, the BTC in cold storage is worth $4,252 which he could do nothing about. The 211 mBTC is now worth $2,848 instead of a measly $1,512 for a nice profit of $1,336. To put icing on the cake, when the price of BTC goes back up to 20k, which we all know it will, his total stack is worth $10,520 instead of $8,540.

Now I know what you are thinking. Hindsight is 20/20. Nobody knew for sure that the top was 20k and that it would crash down to 11k. I concede that. However, as I have heard about one hundred times in the last few days, there has been five corrections for BTC this year. Are you going to call the top every time? No. Are you going to buy the low every time? No. Are you risking a little by keeping your BTC on an exchange? Yes. If you called the top and it went back up are you going to lose a little? Yes. If you are adverse to a little risk then maybe you should be praying at church on Sunday instead of in BTC. HODLing is a cult, a religion, it is a scheme to brainwash you to get your money.

Some of you that are reading this are thinking, DUH! Others are thinking AHA! Guess which group I am in. Oh by the way. I used the numbers $20,000 and $10,600 because these were the absolute high and low. I urge you to play with the numbers on either side because perfection in a case like this is very very very rare. Lastly, we are BTC owners because we are “woke” to the FED and the corrupt fiat system. Don’t let the HODL evangelists do the same thing to you. Peace.