Lower supply, inflation and enhanced initial distribution from the Honeypot

in #hive6 months ago

When it comes to the value of something, scarcity is an obvious point to consider and on Steem, the inflation has always brought questions and has been seen as a devaluation of the holdings. The current rate of inflation is around 8.5%, which means ~26M Steem will be created and distributed through the inflation pool.

However, once Steem is cloned and converted to Hive Tokens (HP sounds better for a gamer btw), this rate could effectively change in what is much like a reset of Steem to 2016 levels, as the potential non-honeydropped stake could be about the same amount that has been generated through the inflation pool thus far.

Going on rough estimates:

Steemit Inc stake is 65-70M
Poloniex is 2M (this was unclaimed customer STEEM remember)
huobi-withdrawals 7M (staked customer STEEM)
binance-hot 30M (staked customer STEEM)

with 344M Steem in circulation, it could very well be that there will only be 230-240M HIVE at the inception of the chain and it will be this amount that will be calculated to generate new HIVE for the inflation pool, the "honeypot". This is a massive difference of 30% less in supply and takes it back to Steem mining levels, with the key difference that there are thousands more accounts participating at all levels.

One of the issues with the startup distribution of Steem was that there were effectively whales, and not much else. However, as time wore on through circle voting, leakage, people buying, bear markets and such. This meant that as distribution happened, the reach of the distribution increased to become more inclusive. However, that also means that it gets diluted along the way, something that a lot of people don't factor in when they say "posts used to earn more" as they only consider the price, not the amount of posts getting voted on and by whom.

On Hive, the voting will be quite different to the start of Steem as there are already many thousands of small, thousands of medium and hundreds of large accounts that make up the Hive Colony. This will mean that fro the get-go, the distribution mechanisms will be on a better footing than in 2016 and it is unlikely that there will ever be the equivalent of the 35,000 dollar makeup tutorials again.

This will mean lower peaks, but much wider spread than those early days, with the accounts that have remained and become active having a bit more influence than earlier, as the Steemit Inc stake won't be there to support the applications. This means that Hive gets the start that Steem should have had, where a greater amount of participants have influence over what gets supported.

While none of this might affect price directly, I do think that a platform that empowers a large group of users to support a wide range of contributors in some way is more attractive than the focus on whales only, which was definitely where Steem was in the early days with so few accounts with large stake, the N2 curve and a lot of daylight between. This could mean that participation becomes more welcoming for startup accounts and with the low prices of the token, they can buy in relatively cheaply.

One issue is going to of course be liquidity of HIVE on the exchanges, especially if Binance and Huobi choose not to participate in the "honeydrop" as it will mean all the current STEEM will never be converted to HIVE. And with no liquids, people can't even move their Steem off those exchanges to one that does support the drop.

There is about 100M STEEM sitting on exchanges or liquid currently (including the powered up exchanges) and if only 50% of that gets converted to HIVE, it immediately creates some kind of scarcity at a time that there might be people looking to get in early on a new blockchain. It is going to be volatile - especially since there have already been a lot of people announcing that they are going to dump STEEM - and they aren't small accounts.

Regardless of the exchange and price action though, I am hoping that the action on Hive will be of the kind that has learned from past errors. One massive benefit that Steem didn't have, is that there will be applications near immediately available on Hive that already will have content mass as well as user bases that can start creating from day one. There will also be experienced developers and support people who do not have to learn that much more than what they already have learned on Steem - and as it is a near clone, the ramp up for users is very simple.

This makes the "brand new" hive colony very long in the tooth with a great amount of experience tucked into the belt. This also means that a lot of the development and changes that could have happened on Steem but didn't, now can - for example, lowering the inflation rate significantly.

Potentially, Hive is where Steem should have started, but didn't and while it is going to take more time to stabilize, that time can be heavily reduced as while there will be a first block, it won't be the start of the community or the collective experience it holds.

It is pretty exciting to be here, at this point, now.

Taraz
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Will there be a HiveFest?

I am guessing at some point, will you be interested in sharing a hexa-cell? :D

Would be nice to be able to make it to the first, but I am guessing it isn't high on the agenda and likely impossible to plan with so many travel restrictions at this point.

Hi @tarazkp , Are you American? Do you mean that the appearance of Hive has a big advantage?

I am Australian, but live in Europe.

Hive does have some very large advantages in my opinion as it doesn't have all of the past issues Steem has carried and, it has an active community from the very start. With the right marketing, it could be a huge advantage.

Wow Australia is very beautiful and Australian people are friendly. Nice to meet you. In the future, I look forward to your help and advice.

Nice outline of what we can expect. I agree we can anticipate the unexpected but this should be a very mature group going forward.
✍️

I am hoping that at least some have grown up a bit and see the potential on being a little more serious - and Hiving some fun along the way of course :)

"HP sounds better for a gamer btw" also to the car enthusiasts 😁

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Lol yeah :D

The bee theme is official then? XD

II think wasps have hives too. And people with allergies.

Looks like binance is honouring the drop; although it's not yet clear if they plan to list the token.

yeah I saw. Would make sense for them to list considering they will have immediate volume on it.

and potential problems with people not able to withdraw steem and not get hive because of that.

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Seems that Binance and Huobi are supporting the drop. I think they are essentially forced to avoid ramifications of the locked stake.

it was that ANN that caused this:

image.png

According to roelandp's post that stake is going to the SPS.

Which seems interesting since the SPS supports only *BD, but maybe it is first converted. I don't know, I'm going by only one line in a post here.

The entire mine? Seems like that will cause future issues.

I'm afraid so. The potential for abuse is very large. On the other hand, development is the most important concern right now.

well, let's see how it plays out.

Personally I love buying new tokens from mer projects on the Steem-Engine... reason being?
They are so cheap & most steemers are not into the engine looking for new tokens to buy.
Currently I am an ocra in 2 project and by the end of the year I want to be an ocra in 12+ projects.
1 project per month
Slow but steady and sure
!giphy sweet

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giphy is supported by witness untersatz!

Have fun collecting them :)

I am trying to bag 'em all
!giphy stacking




giphy is supported by witness untersatz!

With little in the way of exchanges, I am wondering what the USD value of 1 Hive will be on launch? It may well but nowhere near the 12c some may be expecting.

It could go all over the show, couldn't it, depending on how attractive HIVE appears to external investors (or even internal investors who want to build their stake). I'm anticipating that it will drop very low, regardless of starting price, as everyone recalibrates, but that's okay for those of us are here because we're building something for the future. There may be issues for developers and witnesses who require resources to run their applications and nodes, that's what we may need to attend to, how we keep everyone going through the transition.

Many look at the USD value of their content and may think it's not worth bothering about anymore.

I know I do well (I don't ask for it), but if people post something good and are used to $5 and it now says 40c due to the low value of the Hive token, will they continue to re-post?

I do wonder what we are going to see. Still, it is exciting and I am not moaning about the changes and fork. I'm all for it.

A low token price may bring investors in who can maybe see the potential if and when it rises.

I'm really longing for something that is stable and where the community has controls over scammers and spammers. We can't bring charities here until then, it's too risky for them and the Charity Commission will be all over it like a rash. There's a huge potential audience out there, if the foundation is right. The problem with people not posting is it looks like there's a lack of energy/participation and we need dynamic content to attract new people, but I think it will all even out, there's enough interested dedicated people ... and people like me who have been waiting in the wings a long time before bringing new people. I'm planning to write a big funding application while I'm stuck at home to support charities to learn about blockchain.

I had quite a few zeroes and 5 cents when I started, as I didn't get the support of the handful of SP holders with N2 early on. It can be a grind, but that grind is also part of paying the dues, if not buying in directly.

I had quite a few zeroes and 5 cents when I started

As did I!, not everyone is so tenacious, and posting is not exactly prominent at the current STEEM price.

The ones that do, may be the bigger winners.

The ones that do, may be the bigger winners.

Definitely.

Btw, one thing I find interesting is how many people see themselves as investors, but do not possess the tenacity to invest themselves long term, nor adjust to conditions.

I think the transition period should be considered part of investing into the future. If looking from an entrepreneurial perspective, generally it takes investment in before getting anything out, and thet might be years.

Frankly, I don't care. I think it's already high time for the communit(y/ies) grow organically. It's truly pathetic if the best an altcoin can ever hope to be is a quasi-derivative of Bitcoin.

If the exchanges choose to participate in the airdrop, they may very well keep the exchange gateway open

Friday is going to be interesting, I will be watching with big eyes!

@jrcornel reports in his post: https://steemit.com/steem/@jrcornel/steem-hive-huobi-global-also-announces-they-will-support-hive-airdrop

"It appears some Sun-owned accounts are moving their stake to these exchanges in order to collect the airdrop..."

Are these accounts not funded from ninja-mined stakes? If yes, how could Hive prevent these account from getting the airdrop?

ok...

So...

Nearly all of the ninja-mined Steemit Inc stake is powered up in a handful of known accounts. They are not on the exchanges. THat is about 65,000,000 Steem. Justin Sun might have unknown accounts, but they are much, much smaller than the ones that will not be getting an airdrop. The powerdown time for Steem is 13 weeks. he can't get it to an exchange in time. So, while he might be able to get some Hive tokens from the exchanges, it won't be much.

That photo is absolutely stunning and it also supports the text very well!

It is from Lover's Bridge in Paris - which makes it more special for me personally :)

Hhvycycyugu kvkivi

Please uo bite 100 percent send

please piss off.

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