Battle for the Free World

Thucydides Trap

When discussing the Thucydides trap it is not always who is considered the existing power that fears decline. The rising power can assess their relative position and conclude the overtake of the existing power can only be done through violent destruction.

In this adversarial environment it is China willing to be belligerent. For the United States to engage in sabotage, China being solely an economic threat is not enough.

They would have to establish a prominent reserve currency. They would have to spearhead blocs whose members commit to go directly against the United States. There are few options, as capitalism creates a gap within and between countries.

With this in mind, China would have to build up countries that’ll remain loyal, and middle powers relations with the U.S would have to deteriorate. Initiatives from China like the BRI, and their foray into South America are attempts.

Nation building is a multi-generational process that can easily become proxied for there are always factions. South America has reversed course. American influence has expanded too far for a Monroe Doctrine 2.0.

If you ask China they would say they are being contained or cornered, even in Asia their influence is split. This is where danger occurs. China realized with their technological advantage, and structure they could easily overtake the world if the United States was incapacitated.

Escalation of War & Adversarial consolidation

China's ally in this fight is Russia. Russia despite their three decade dormancy kept their military advantage, and ability to operate around the world and counter America in Africa, and the Middle East.

Russia and China are at an impasse. Utilizing each other's strengths and combining could create a pole that can draw in greater commitments from Iran, North Korea, and expand to other despotic regimes. But that would entail proper footing, and ending the war in Ukraine.

Russian advancement could result in NATO troops on ground or the Ukrainian military receiving weapons that could target deep into Russia. All these situations greatly increase the odds of the hypothetical mutually assured destruction.

Furthermore, Russian advancement coincides with Chinese activity in the East Sea, and the West Philippines sea would draw a greater number of non-aligned nations to take a defensive posture. An invasion of Taiwan may cause a response similar to the Nordic nations with the invasion of Ukraine.

Russia was being driven into China, but now we will see more of China being driven into Russia. The CCP has stunted China’s growth to reposition against America with hostilities, and continue their growth without regression risks.

The Chinese consumer sees all this as an indication for risk off, but the CCP now insists on risk on. We are witnessing a disconnect between a government's leading central planning against a lagging effect of past social engineering. The world is watching, and civilian habits are telling.

Is the global strategy of Russia, and China a merger of minds or will it become an acquisition? Expect those two to be passing out poison pills in diplomacy, technology, friendship. Basically everything. They will be finding means to try and change sentiment towards the United States.

They want to get to the world, but to get the world, they would have to go through the United States.