2024 U.S Presidential Election Prediction

There is a trend occurring in America to address the contradictions of what America claims to be, and the behavior of her constituents. It seems to me the election will be the result of the sum makeup of single issue voters.

If there is a showdown between Biden and Trump come November and the economy is intact, and the current wars are contained, without any major gaffe I give the victory to Biden. Since I am giving the probability to Biden I have to come up with a meaning.

I think this would be a better solution to both the domestic and foreign policy that America could derive. A Trump loss means a cohort of Americans propelling Republican policy will be displeased. In my opinion this cohort of Americans are best to stay away from foreign policy because of the possibility of escalation.

They will attempt to please Putin, at the same time take a stance against Xi. It doesn't work that way anymore. They will squeeze Europe creating fault lines in NATO. Israel would also be less constrained with any initiative they take. Essentially a lot of room for error, and more coordinated attacks from adversaries.

This cohort is also pushing discourse about racism, religion, and free speech. Which I believe will swing the election. The Democrat base is a lot more stable than Republicans. Independent voters who are relatively more conservative have been voting Democrat. The single issue problem has been going on for some time, but this election has really exuberated it. I will use these three examples that I think will hurt the Republican party.

The Racial context in America has been about some white people feeling they are being discriminated against by everyone else including other white people. This is a sign of equality, if racism isn't preventable then everyone should be susceptible, also that white privilege is not real. Maybe this is the best America can offer. A lot of this is blamed on white progressives. I think it is unfair to blame people for putting country over race when social relations matter a lot to her prosperity and functions.

I also think this is a result of American prosperity that has deluded many folks into forceful contentions of things that are not so transparent. I think it is a weakness foreign adversaries can exploit.

Religion is also a big topic. America is a Christian nation because its people accept the bible as the word of god. That does not mean these Christians are not hypocrites, and use the good lord name to justify their ill behaviors. The United States has separation of church and state for a reason. Corruption happens, and without separation it is a blasphemous state. Separation allows the lord to save you in these situations where the state is corrupt through the reminder of the greater authority. Organizing through Christianity rather than free will and personal relationships with the creator is a recipe to kill in the name of.

Free speech is being used for the wrong reasons. You should be able to lay your grievances without any gaslighting or abuse. I rarely see anyone telling white people to shut up because they shouldn't feel like racism against them exists in this day in age. I still do see a lot of people saying vulgar things about people of different races, cultures, and religions.

I think this election is a strange one because of the contradictions. Far right advocates are doing something they’ve never done before. They are reaching out to Black people that are not fans of the democrats trying to garner votes usually through their shared dislike of immigration policies. A single issue.

These things are very uneasy and brittle because of the smell of blood. The Republican coalition is very fractured, and a minority on the right has been dominating party functions. Just because your conservative doesn't mean you have to vote Republican. Voting conservative sometimes means voting in a manner that doesn't put your person at risk. Or avoiding contradictions exhibited by a party.

Thus if my prediction holds out. Biden enters his second term, there will be internal unrest, maybe even martial law. Since it is the second term you can expect something most likely pertaining to adversaries boiling up to the surface. I think that would be later during the term.

If my prediction doesn't hold out. Trump will be in office and the first year will probably be disruptive. Definitely martial law. If not for adversaries, than for civil disruption. The far left is a lot more dangerous than the far right.

This election will be seen as a pivotal moment in which many people cleaned up their acts. Elections are important. Your representatives are important. Holding any title in America as a public servant is not to wage war against fellow Americans. You're managing its life blood, and standing before allies and adversaries.

This election is going to be good. One side will be very angry because of their faults. The other side will realize a win still doesn't make it simple.