What Does the New Year Bring Us?
First of all, I want to wish everyone a Happy New Year! I wish you that the new year will be better than the previous one, that you will meet it with your loved ones, family, fun and fireworks.
When the New Year comes, we all involuntarily wonder what it will bring us. Since we are all united by Steemit, many have already written their thoughts on what the New Year brings us here. I must note that there is a lot of pessimism in these posts.
One such post was written by @papi.mati. This author, who by the way is recognized as one of the best in the results
The Steemit Awards 2021, always cares about the fate of this platform. Therefore, his posts do not just criticize that everything is bad here, they contain specific suggestions for improvement. @papi.mati draws its conclusions not on the basis of subjective impressions, but on the basis of detailed statistical information.
What scared @papi.mati the most in his analysis of statistics is that, according to him, 2.5 million STEEM will enter the market next month. This 2.5 million STEEM will be received due to the fact that a large number of powerful accounts have launched the Power Down process. By simple logic, we can assume that these 2.5 million STEEM will not be used to purchase fireworks, sausages or hidden under a pillow. All these STEEM will be sold, which will cause a significant drop in the price of cryptocurrency.
So what does the new year bring us? It would seem nothing good.
When I read this post, I was in no hurry to comment on it, as I had a number of questions that I wanted to answer. The most important of them: "What is 2.5 million STEEM?" That's a lot or a little. At first glance, a lot, but we do not know how many STEEM is withdrawn each month. We do not know? So let's find out.
Using https://steemworld.org/, I researched how many STEEM is Powers Down each month throughout 2021:
The first thing that catches your eye is that it turns out we have already experienced one withdrawal of 2.5 million STEEM in November and did not even notice it.
Let's add price change to this table:
Well, here we could not find a correlation between Power Down and the price of STEEM. Maybe charts will help us?
And here is the monthly chart of STEEM price changes:
What caused the price drop in April-May? Exactly not Power Down? Then what will the STEEM price leave the most?
Here's a simple answer. This is a monthly bitcoin price chart:
As we can see from the charts, the spring rise in the price of STEEM was caused solely by the rise in the price of bitcoin. This grandfather pulled all the altcoins behind him. Similarly, the fall in the price in April-May was caused by the fall in the price of bitcoin.
Then bitcoin repeated the attempt to increase the price, but Steem very weakly supported it. This has disappointed many holders. I believe this is what caused the massive Power Down.
In fairness, it should be noted that the second rise in the price of bitcoin was not supported by the vast majority of altcoins. Therefore, there is no reason to panic.
What conclusion can we draw from this? In my opinion, the price of STEEM is more influenced by stock speculators than users of the Steemit platform. Even if we all intentionally finish Steemit, and bitcoin is growing rapidly at this time, the price of STEEM will also rise (it was a joke about finishing Steemit, I hope no one has such a goal).
Thus, it all depends on bitcoin. If its price rises, in 2022 we will all be able to sing songs of praise for Steemit, if the price of bitcoin falls, we can see STEEM for $ 0.18. Then the platform will be full of sadness and posts about stagnation and lack of future.
But there are still reasons for optimism. This is a new initiative @ the-gorilla. This great initiative is supported by the SC01 team. It will show that Steemit is evolving again. The second reason for optimism is the e-mail newsletter from Steemit.Inc, in which they inform us that something big and positive awaits us in the next 2022. By the way, I have already received two such letters. Apparently I used to put too much pessimism into my posts.
By the way, if the price of bitcoin goes down, and this is likely to happen, and Power Down will be added to it, it is possible that we will see STEEM for $ 0.10. But with new initiatives and clearing of desperate accounts, we expect even stronger growth after such a sharp decline. Why? There will be no more willing people to do massive Power Down, new initiatives will interest new users and investors, and the price of bitcoin will take a new height and thus greatly accelerate the growth of the price of STEEM.
So what does the future hold for us? The best thing about this question is that we don't know the answer. But I hope it has given you some optimism.
Happy New Year to you, your family and your friends! I wish you health, inspiration and new achievements!
When it comes to Tipu and Upvu, it is not a massive powerdown
They also pay out returns to their shareholders
tipu has its own SP of 71,456,010 steem
Delegated SP from 1062 shareholders is (+7,576,759,172 STEEM)
Upvu has its own SP of 1,051,539,973 STEEM
Delegated SP from 695 shareholders is (+28,130,229.305 STEEM)
I do not see that it should affect the stock market as seriously as some claim
That's right, I've seen they pay their shareholders. Well, then we are even more convinced that there will be no catastrophe. And in general, I am positive. Thank you for a very good clarification!
I don't think it's 100% correct. It doesn't matter when the power down was made, it matters when the person sold the STEEM (it can be kept in the wallet before).
Look what happened with the price of STEEM in 27.11 to 04.12 - it dropped from 0.8 USD to 0.45 USD and, in my opinion, THAT is the direct effect of November's power-downs, not only BTC price weakening.
Now, when a similar situation will repeat, the price will almost for sure drop to 0.15 USD which is the point of stagnation. With HIVE worth more than 1 USD, nobody from bloggers will be joining ten times weaker STEEM (looking at Newcomers activity we can already see that very few joins us compared to the previous months). Well, maybe besides the bid voters, because bid bots are not allowed on the second platform. But... much more bid voters will make this place trash.
The other thing that I am afraid of is the aftershock wave. I mean, bloggers who have more SP will most likely stay on the platform because powering down now and selling their SP for the mentioned 15 cents means the big loss for them, but the small users and people from less developed countries (which again, on Steemit is the majority) may panic and start powering down to get anything. So it's important to constantly repeat that fewer users mean a bigger chance for upvotes from SC and a bigger chance for booming support. Booming is super easy to get, although SC upvotes... well...
Finally, I'm afraid that people will be powering up less in the least safe moments since I joined the platform. Club5050 gives some protection - we know that at least 50% of the income will be powered up by those who expect the upvotes from SC01, but club75/100 may become less popular. Club5050 will work also only as long as the user will be rewarded for their quality content. As the price of STEEM lost 50% of its value in the last month and will most likely lose much more, the upvotes should be worth more or be more often or... people, especially small users, will give up and leave. Who would write two posts per day if is earning 100 USD per week and is allowed to withdraw only 25 USD out of that? Maybe some would - I'd rather spend those hours with my family than earn such small money.
Yes, I got it too. It has to be really big though. Then we have a chance to turn that situation into something good and make Steemit more attractive for the bloggers. Every change announced by Steemitblog is called by them "big" but very few really are, so let's wait to see what will happen. I know that hopes are big - some people who are mods in the communities (not mine) were mentioning to me on Discord that they wait for that announcement to make the final decision about staying or leaving Steemit. Mods... valuable users with bigger SP and reputation...
Let's see what the future brings. My bruxism will be more advanced with all that stress, but I'll be here to watch the changes to the end :)
I am registered on both platforms, Steemit and Hive. But I got stuck on Steemit. However, I seldom visit Hive, and sometimes even create short posts there, because there is a Ukrainian community there, and it is very easy for me to write in Ukrainian.
Do you think Hive has no bid bots? This is a very common opinion, which I can not confirm. 95% of the votes for my posts on Hive are bots. It's just that there is no such system as here. Specifically, in my case, all members of the community send 0.5 Hive to bot per month, and it votes for one of their posts per day for a whole month. But in addition to it, a dozen other bots are voting.
Yes, there are more live authors in Hive, but I haven't seen anything very much better there. However, my reputation at Hive is only 55 and I rarely go there. @creativemary can better compare , she is an experienced user of Hive (reputation 72).
Of course, more authors will be where they will be paid more. I hope that the price of STEEM will not collapse, although it will most likely continue to decline for some time.
We'll see what happens next. And now I'm going to drink champagne with my family. Happy New Year!
That's a surprise! I do have an account on Hive but I'm not active there - it's just to keep an eye opened what is happening there. Obviously, my knowledge about that platform is limited and I never saw the bid bots there. Now I understand why - they work differently. Thanks for the info.
Low price - good opportunity to buy.
Happy New Year! All the best for the platform, us users, you, and your family!
To confirm my words, here is a screenshot:
Here the ua-promoter is a bot, community members give him 0.5 Hive per month. The rest are his helper bots.
In general, bots should not be so bad. Automation should help. But here in Steemit activity of bots needs to be limited somehow.
You post is nominated for „Wold of xpilar“ Community Support Program, @booming account upvote. Only the posts that are not cross posted, original and posted from community page are eligible. If your post gets approval, then you get upvote within few days. Good luck!
Thank you for the New Year's gift, Santa @stef1
thank for the support friend!
It is extremely difficult for beginners on this platform to start. Even if in real life you are a very cool professional. But a little patience and you will succeed.