Short History of the Future

Few futurists can create plausible predictions about the future. One of these notable futurists is Jacques Attali, an Algerian-born French citizen. In this article, I would like to introduce Attali's book “A Brief History of the Future.” Attali was born in 1943 in Algiers, Algeria. He graduated from the Ecole Polytechnique in Paris in 1963 as a mining engineer. A lecturer, author, and honorary advisor to the state, Attali served as a special advisor to France's president from 1981 to 1991. He has written more than 40 books in essays, biographies, novels, children's books, and theatrical plays. His books have been translated into more than 20 languages.

In the Short History of the Future, published in 2006, Attali presents his predictions on how the world's future can be shaped in the 21st century. In his book, the author makes a brief summary of the history of humanity before sorting out his predictions for the future, talking about the main factors affecting historical dynamics such as nomadism/settlement, capitalism, technological developments. Attali refers to the main pillars of power that determine world history as religious, military, and capitalist. The world has gone through the liturgical order stages. Power is in the hands of religious authorities, the imperial order, where power is primarily military, and the commercial order dominated by the bourgeoisie. The ideal of a religious order is theological, the main goal of military order is territorial, and the philosophy of commercial order is individualism, and the goal is wealth.

Jacques Attali - Source

The author underlines that the conflicts between the traveler and the established culture have been very decisive in history. In many parts of the book, he examines the differences in understanding between nomads and residents. He notes that the people who are decisive in the world, who guide developments, are people of science, culture, and business who travel a lot today. In his book, the author explains that the center of power has been gradually shifting from east to west since the 12th century. Geographical regions, which the author calls “Focus,” create and spread the most important innovations of their time around the world. This “focus” that dominated the market shifted in the twelfth century from the Middle East to the Mediterranean, then to the North Sea, The Atlantic Ocean, and finally to the Pacific Ocean. The author lists these focuses as Brugge, Venice, Antwerp, Genoa, Amsterdam, London, Boston, New York, and California.

Between 1200-1350, the city of Brugge was the main focus of maritime trade, with its population reaching 35,000. In 1348, the city lost this feature after an outbreak of plague that killed a third of Europeans. Between 1350-1500, Venice became the commercial focus of the world. In the shadow of the powerful Ottoman Empire, the city, as the only European power that can resist the Ottoman Empire, determined the prices of major goods, played with the exchange rate of their money, determined the laws of aesthetics, architecture, painting, and music. The period of this focus ended when the Ottoman Empire increased its effectiveness in the Mediterranean.

Between 1620 and 1788, Amsterdam becomes the new focus. It becomes an industrial center that paints the wool fabrics of all of Europe. With the income it generates, it becomes the production center of boats called filinta and saving crew. It begins to carry a significant portion of Europe's cargo with the fleets it creates and becomes a major naval power. In 1685 Amsterdam had a per capita income of 4 times that of Paris. It gives direction to European politics with its population of 300 thousand. In 1788, when the Dutch banks went bankrupt, Amsterdam transferred the flag to London. Between 1788 and 1890, London became the new commercial focus of the world, behind steam power. It becomes a center where all innovators, creators, industrialists, and financiers gather with its developing new industry. 19. in the second half of the century, England becomes the judge of the world. Thus, for the first time, a commercial focus has become dominant in the world politically and militarily.

Between 1890 and 1929, Boston became a focus thanks to cars powered by internal combustion engines. From 1880 to 1914, as the United States became the world's new rising power, a fifth of Europe's population emigrated to the United States. The crisis of 1929, triggered by rising oil prices, led to the closure of Boston. From 1929-1980, electricity and associated industries made New York the new focus. Between 1945 and 1965, New York became the largest metropolis on earth. From 1980 to the present, California is the new focus of the world. From Hollywood to Silicon Valley, this Italian-sized state leads the entertainment, computer, and software industries.

Since 2006, when the book was written, the US state of California's decisive position in the world continues. The world's economic center of gravity, meanwhile, continues to shift westward. Although the author emphasized that California will be the last Focus in the world, after which space will lose its importance thanks to digitalization, today, Chinese cities such as Hong-Kong and Shanghai have shaken California's throne in advanced technology and innovation. According to Attali, in the 21st century, the world will pass through the Hyper-Empire and Hyper-Conflict phases and reach the Hyper-Democracy phase.

According to the author, in the coming years, capitalism and market forces will become the only determinant of the world by digesting and dominating all opposing forces. In the process, all states, including the United States, will be neutralized. Money will eliminate all forces that will harm its dominance, create extreme wealth and extreme misery, and become the measure of everything, eroding all world values, including nature. In the process, everything will become private, including the army, police, and Justice. After people are equipped with prosthetics and become completely artificial, they will come under complete control. In this way, the historical process that the author calls hyper-Empire will begin.

In the hyper-conflict era, which will develop in response to this period, states, religious groups, private pirates, and democratic forces will wage war on money dominance. A period of chaos will begin. If humanity can emerge from this period of chaos without destroying itself, and the market can be controlled without being eliminated, humanity will reach an era of hyper-democracy defined by values such as freedom, responsibility, honor, self-transcendence, and respect for the other. In the era of hyper-democracy, accompanied by democratic world rule, humanity will begin to benefit from the blessings of the world on relatively equal terms with the help of the opportunities provided by new technologies and learn to avoid excesses.

Attali, an intellectual and creative literalist with a wide knowledge base, takes readers on a pleasant mental journey from the past to the future in his book "Short History of the Future."

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