THE OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO IN THE CRYPTO INDUSTRY

No one knows what is coming on next in the market but we can speculate what could happen in the market. Let's take the optimistic scenario, global liquidity continues to rise. Of course, spurred on by China primarily as there are reopening to the world creating a big spark for the global economy. The Bitcoin halving narrative continues to grow, and more big institutional players move to Bitcoin, driving the entire cryptocurrency market up. The FED does indeed pivot and start lowering interest rates. Sooner than expected potentially, if creating an even more exciting market sparking a new rally for risk assets from which cryptocurrency will be very likely to benefit.

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We just have the lingering distrust in the banking system growing as more banks collapse driving people into Gold and Bitcoin. Some scenarios could ruin the party, the banking crisis could get a lot worse before it cools off of it. While things have short-term meld out a little bit, the bank-term funding program probably going to solve the banking issues but if it does not, we could see real chaos unfolding here as dozen of banks could still collapse. The fear alone of that could still derail the market's, actual collapse could cause panic in markets. The US regulators are going on an anti-crypto crusade right now, we may decouple from the macro in a bad way.

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Most exchanges are being sued in the US, DeFi, and Stablecoins and everything is under attack by the US regulators. The situation is so absurd that when the SEC chief was asked whether or not Ethereum is a security he couldn't answer. Regulations in the US are an absolute mess right now and the US is going to end up being a big loser from it because other countries are opening up to crypto. There are a lot of wild cards that can still pop up with all these different court cases going on in the US that can affect the crypto markets, we have to be aware of that. There are also fears that a commercial real estate crash could seriously dusk up the markets. Morgan Stanley has come out warning that this could be worse than 2008. A massive collapse in the property markets could cause real turmoil markets and cause widespread fear and uncertainties. The biggest fear for the market right now is the fear of the big US recession.