Tron Fan Club" Bitcoin Price Prediction Contest Participation - My June 2024 Bitcoin Price Prediction

Please for such kind of contest indeed with so much joy in my heart I gladly partake of this wonderful contest and am very pleased for this wonderful opportunity to write about something I so much love, that's cryptocurrencies and conceptual price of bitcoin.

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Brief History Of Bitcoin

Bitcoin was created in 2009 by Satoshi Nakamoto as famously believed, it's the first cryptocurrencies ever created built on blockchain network which is hardcore technogy and has indeed brought about so many wonderful innovations and gained application in many fields accross even finance.

Bitcoin was created to serve as a decentralized form of payment as a better alternative to the centralized form of money and now we can say bitcoin is both a currency and an asset, bitcoin is a wonderful digital asset and has helped in reshaping and help in creation of other coins.

One thing that make bitcoin so unique is that it's a limited asset class upon which it values thrives, there could only be 21 million bitcoin ever so that means it's limited, as the famous law of supply and demand the scarce the asset then higher the demand then higher the market price also, so since this asset class has a limited supply that means it's value has the potential to increase that's why every four years when the mining rate is halve it further makes the asset scarcely thus helping to drive the price up due to much demand from the masses.

Bitcoin provides a value as it set the pedestal for all other cryptocurrencies asset to be created, it's a unique asset class limited beyond forgery and that's why am excited about this contest as I make my predictions.

The reasons for my prediction will be quite simple, yes news move the market quite aright but I believe on the chart more, even before the hype of bitcoin ETF bitcoin was looking bullish and I knew it was going to sweep the level at $48k which it did and touched wicked up to $49k and even after the etf approval it fails to pump because it has already played out it's paths on the chart, also I believe history is another thing that determines since bitcoin tends to repeat itself history as it's often with many asset class, so I will provide details on the last two halving of bitcoin and how events unfolded.

Behavior During 2016 Bitcoin Halving

To understand how things might likely play out on June 2024 I will like to trace back to its behaviour in 2016 bull run. Before the bitcoin halving in 2016 the mining reward for bitcoin was at 24 Btc but then during the 2016 halving the reward was halved to 12.5 Btc which actually happened in July 9.

coingecko

Now I will like to run down the performance of bitcoin during the 2016 halving, during january the first month of the year, bitcoin prior to the halving even was at or around $364 as of the ending january now that was where the price closed for the month of January in anticipation of the price of the July halving, mind you the all time high of bitcoin before the halving event in 2016 was around $1200-1300k that was the top of the 2013 bull run.

Now if we the price of bitcoin started out at around $300 as of January 2016 precisely at $346 at january 31st 2016 now from that time to 6 months later that's July 9, what was bitcoin price.

coingecko

Well as of the time of bitcoin halving from where the price closed at january 31st 2016 it did almost a 2× as the price was at $653 as of July 9 2016 the day of the bitcoin halving that was exactly what the price was at.

But after the halving the price of bitcoin did not immediately pump massively as many may expect and how do we know this.

coingecko

Two months later as of September 29, 2016 the price of bitcoin was still hanging at around $600 that's was basically around where it was at the halving as of July 9, 2016.

So from where bitcoin was from january to July the time of the halving it was almost like it did a 50% gain and after the halving it was actually consolidated and quite around fairly the $500-700 level without much rapid gain, infact the time we started witnessing mad gains was from December 2016 and it took bitcoin 6 months later that's almost late december towards early january to reach the previous all time of around $1k and eventually pass it, so during the 2016 halving bitcoin did not immediately pump after the halving and it took it 6months to reach and break the previous all time high.

Behavior During 2020 Bitcoin Halving

Now I will want to also look into the behaviour of bitcoin during the 2020 halving, during this period after the halving the mining reward for bitcoin reduced further to 6.25 Btc per block mined and I will like us to study on the price history or trajectory during this period from january-December 2020 the year of the 3rd bitcoin halving.

coingecko

During january 31, 2020 the price of bitcoin was at $9,509.81 that was where the price closed as of January 31st prior to the halving. The 2020 bitcoin halving event actually took place in may 11, 2020. And bitcoin was around $9.5k by january ending now from january till May the time of the halving that was 4 months.

coingecko

Now as of when the the halving event occured bitcoin was at $8,752.62 that was like an 8% drop from where the price closed off at january 31st when the price was around $9.5k so we can see there wasn't really any gain this time around and what about two months later after the halving, did we see a massive pump well let's see.

coingecko

As of July 2020 two months after the halving by may bitcoin was at $11,116.31 that was a 27% gain from where it was at the halving so we did experience some measure of gain a good one infact.

But did bitcoin reach the previous all time high of $20k reached in 2017 immediately it halved or just few months later, nop it did not.

coingecko

Infact from the halving event of bitcoin in 2020 it took bitcoin till December 2020 to reach the previous all time high and break it, that's 7 months later after the halving, yes it didn't happen immediately after or just one or two months after it happened in December almost the same time as it happened in 2016.

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Important Note: I want to point out clearly that both after the halving in 2016 and 2020 bitcoin did not immediately start surging or pumping in fact for some months it was dormant, the market was quiet, mind you after the halving in 2016 it took bitcoin 6 months to reach and break all time high around December-January period yes as the move began december and after 2020 halving it took bitcoin 7 months that's during December again to reach and break previous all time high then surely it's certainly insane to think bitcoin would break all time high just two months after the 2024 halving I believe despite all the good news it would be expecting much from bitcoin infact it would break a historical pattern, something that hasn't happen before.

I would rather side with history during this period again until it fails which it had never done before.

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The Art Of Technical Science On Bitcoin Price

screenshot from tradingview

Well after the ETF news many have been expecting a pump for bitcoin, but instead of a pump we are seeing a dump, some feel this is because large institutions want to buy at a cheaper price, which is very logical but ofcourse I will also like to look at it from the chart.

Even before that event wen the bitcoin price was at $43k from the chart bitcoin was looking bullish then I made a post here saying I expect bitcoin to draw towards the $48k level as there was a buyside liquidity post here there on the weekly Tf which it did now from there I am not surprised it dumped as to me for the immediate short term it has accomplish it goal so will probably consolidate until it gathers momentum to continue another leg up.

screenshot from tradingview

Currently bitcoin is priced at $41.5k level as of when am writing this post, and ofcourse from my chart on the weekly I see a buyside liquidity both at the $52k and $69k level all I expect us to sweep at a much later time this year.

Also it seems bitcoin is falling down and for now the $40k support is holding it strongly but below I also see a weekly FVG around the 38-40k level. Ordinarily bitcoin I expect it to be slow probably no much move either side but eventually I believe it will first take the side liquidity by clearing the sellside around the $40-41k and then dropping into the fair value gap, if it breaks below then I believe the support and orderblock zone of 35-38k should hold it from falling further down.

screenshot from tradingview

Though for now I feel we are going to drop into the weekly FVG eventually, it might hold the price or it might move much lower but no further than the $35k level and from there it will likely begin it move to eventually sweep the busyide at both 52k and 69k remains to be seen when it would do that.

screenshot from tradingview

Personally I feel from now till the bitcoin halving the price of bitcoin would be hovering around $30-50k range bouncing up and down between support and resistance in a consolidatory manner and maybe after the halving we might see some percent gains but ofcourse it remains to be seen, for now in the immediate short term bitcoin is bearish to me but overall it is bullish, so let's keep our fingers crossed it going to be a good year.

My Prediction Come June 2024

Ofcourse finally, what's my prediction come June 2024. Well from the behaviour of bitcoin from the previous halving years, one thing I know is this I don't expect bitcoin to reach it's previous all time high of $69k just two months after the halving. It would be something that haven't been seen before.

Depending on where bitcoin price is at the time of the halving, am expecting $35-45k level, probably a few percent gain or loss to where it is now. The halving is expected to happen April 22nd at 7:24:26 UTC when block reward will be halved to 3.125 Btc I expect bitcoin to be slow after the halving, just like this ETf where everyone was expecting a pump immediately after it will disappoint people who thinks so.

And ofcourse if the price is at $35-45k level then I expect based on my analysis on the chart I feel the first buyside liquidity of $52k would be taken around that June 2024 after much consolidation, I believe after the two months like in 2020 we could see a decent percent gain, so taking the buyside at $52 would be prime, so I expect $50k price of bitcoin come June 2024 give or take $10k.

My official prediction on bitcoin come June 2024 after the April halving event based on past behaviour of price in the past halving even and on the chart based on the buyside liquidity I see on the $52k level I believe it will all align on June 2024 to price range of $50 for bitcoin so yea a $53k price shouldn't be out of the question when the $52k buyside is taken.

Then I believe for the taking and breaking of all time high I believe it will happen 8 months later, during December 2024 just like it did in 2016 and 2020 halving or late November in this case that's when we will see new all time high and then $100k will follow later.

So this is my conceptual prediction to bitcoin price come June 2024.

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Conclusion

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I would rather bank on history until it fails rather based my prediction on news event which may not always play out as we feel, history and chart rarely disappoint. And when it comes to bitcoin history is something that never fails. Bitcoin will repeat history this time around too. This is my personal opinion and idea and thought given the content and should not be mistaken for financial advice.