Amateur's analysis of India as a mediator on Russia-Ukraine War

The invasion began on 24 February by Russia.

Reasons cited by Russia:

Ukraine's bid to join Nato (Military organization formed against Soviet Union).
Demilitarization and Denazification of Ukraine.
Averting a direct nuclear and military threat from Ukranian side.
World's view on invasion exercise:

Disregard of the sovereignty of Ukraine.
Invasion based on speculation.
Human rights violation
Destruction of the Economy
Complete chaos in the food and energy market affecting the whole world
Role of USA and West in the conflict:

Allegedly provided training and military support to Ukraine way before the conflict.
West's ignorance on the fact that Nazism is a big issue in Ukraine.
Hypocrisy of expansion of NATO.
Unfair provocation to Russia escalating tensions in geopolitics.
Declining supremacy of USA in geopolitics.
Warmongering of few western interests.
Weak leadership of Joe Biden.
Actions taken by West:

Economic (Swift) sanctions on Russia and Russian assets.
Military aid.
Helping Ukranian citizens fleeing the country.
Raising the issue on Multiple diplomatic formats.
Not confronting Russia directly as it could mean an all-out war.
Outsider's (not having direct stake) perspective (Personal):

Neutrality of Switzerland Questioned:

Acting in its own interests and not upholding its reputation.
As it took part in these sanctions displaying its solidarity with West and hence not neutral on economic front.
Therefore, now not suitable destination to hold peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.
India as a mediator:

PRO

Western countries want to leverage India relationship with Russia.
India could emerge as a diplomatic leader with immense soft power in geopolitics.
Indian PM's approval ratings could boost.
CONS

India would have to change stance from its current position of criticizing any party.
West might not honor its commitments as was the case of NATO expansion.
Russia-India relations might sour as Russia considers this issue serious enough to go to war.
Indian dependence of Russian defense equipment and now energy.
India has very little to gain and very much to lose if the mediation goes sideways.
No direct stakes in Ukraine's economy.
Ukraine has in the past supplied defense equipment to Pakistan
Ukraine's position is not aligned with Indian position on many international issues.

Therefore, though tragic it is not in India's interest to take a proactive role in the mediation of Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The views are personal and constructive criticism is appreciated. This article is not meant to hurt anybody's feelings. Author understands the pain and suffering of millions of people affected.

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 2 years ago 

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