Why Londoner's are dreaming of the suburbs

Why Londoner's are dreaming of the suburbs (FT)

• The FT is reporting that according to research they commissioned from property websites and estate agents, Londoners are looking to “move to the suburb’s”
• Apparently during the first 10 weeks of lockdown, eight out the ten most commonly searched locations were in the leafy suburbs of the South & South West of the city.
• The most quoted reason for moving as the desire for a garden, or at least some outdoor space. Close behind was somewhere to park. Hence unsurprisingly, densely populated inner city areas were in the bottom ten of the search list.
• The article then quotes an urban property economics professor, who says this is unlikely to last.

Analysis and Comments

• Most analysts and investors agree with the urban property economics professor. Sticking with the London example, it’s perfectly understandable that people dream of space when they are “trapped for weeks” in a small inner city flat. They expect this to quickly reverse once the COVID lockdowns finally end.
• London is a young city, like Paris or Madrid, people come for work and the social life. The average age in London is just over 35 years old, compared with 40.3 for the rest of the UK. And while the city is getting older, its aging at a slower rate than the rest of the country Centre for London data .
• Looking at where people live, the inner areas have seen higher population growth than the other suburbs …so all in all no evidence that people are about to abandon the inner cities. This is not the city of Detroit in the 1960’s
• Where many do think we may see change is in both a growth in working from home (especially in cities with long commutes) & a continuation of marketing via online.

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