Is correction over? Stock market or roller coster?
It has been a hell of a week. I lost almost all of this year's earnings amounting to around 35% of my portfolio. I had been patient, I was somewhere between fear and depression, and I was hoping everyone would soon accept and handover the market to Bears and let the joy come back by the end of the year.
Here is the average emotion and sentiment, the market goes through every time there's a crash.
But is it truly over? is the market back on track? if so what happened? if not so, what's next?
Here are some things that had been going on:
- NASDAQ posted the worst session last week since the elections
- Tech stocks dropped over 30%
- the 10-year bond yields had been rising
- there was a fear of inflation looming
- and there was certainly a fear of interest rates rising
- On top of this all, a few of the most interesting IPOs were coming to market (Coinbase, Roblox, Coupang, Robinhood) causing worries about increasing supply in the equity market while there is no/less demand and hence affecting the averages
We had been suggesting, and writing about HODL, and let the market correct itself, do not fear and buy the dips, do the hedging. But there certainly comes a time when you ask yourself, which dips should I really buy? Is every dip worth buying?
Interest rates on 10-year Treasury yields are stabilizing, maybe even coming down, there is a good report on jobs and employment, the hiring is starting, states are announcing their long-awaited full opening without masks, the government assures the support for the support of the economy and yes this may very well be it, the markets might just have started to rebound.
I although always leave room for doubt. Everything is still the same we only have some promises from the Fed. The market should not recover too fast, it should have taken its time and course. I do not believe it's over, I believe it's right there to happen to start-over all again. Be cautious with your investments, and wait for more indicators and look for patterns. Look at market sentiment and fear indexes.
Overall, keep invested, because a Dollar in the bank is a Dollar in the Trash!
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