THE "TRUTH" BEHIND RECENT FLASH CRASH. Is dream of BTC reaching 100k usd this year over?

in Project HOPE3 years ago

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INTRODUCTION

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Yesterday we've all witnessed another FLASH CRASH within the crypto market and for some of us it was nothing more than another buying opportunity. However, many people out there seem to be concerned and heavily affected with this dip. Often calculating their losses and wondering what the heck had just happened.

I've read posts and comments mentioning different reasons for that "bloodbath". Some would blame the new strain of covid, others would point out negative statements coming from FED or some dump happening on the traditional markets. And obviously "market manipulation" is quite a common (and quite general) explanation.

Let me share my view on this recent flash crash, what caused it and what I expect in the near future. I will also share my personal answer to the following question: Is dream of BTC reaching 100k usd this year over?

Hopefully some of you will share your own opinion.

THOSE PAINFUL LIQUIDATIONS ... AGAIN

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According to Coinglass , nearly $1 billion worth of cryptocurrencies had been liquidated during that flash-crash. That number is INSANE. Wouldn't you agree?

Only 3 months ago I've wrote about other flash crash and how it has been accelerated by mass liquidations. I've also briefly explained how overleveraging works, so if you have a moment then I would recommend checking out this post.

For the purpose of this post I will assume that everyone reading it is aware how to leverage our positions and how risky it can be.

MAIN REASON BEHIND RECENT DUMP ...

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In my view, the reason behind the current correction has been caused mainly by only one "large player" who dumped 1500 BTC within as little as one minute. This "whale" timed the market very well and executed the entire sale the moment the correction just started, triggering a cascade of liquidations. It's as simple as that.

Coindesk in their publication wrote those words about it:

“So far I’ve seen an upwards of 4,000 BTC being sold that pushed the market abruptly down,” said Laurent Kssis, a crypto exchange-traded fund expert and director of CEC Capital. “In fact, 1,500 BTC alone was sold in less than a minute at the time of the drop.”

Some of you may wonder how as little as 4k BTC can shake the entire market. After all, there is almost 19mln Bitcoin in circulation. So those 4k BTC should hardly matter. Right?

However, there is one important factor we need to consider. Currently the majority of those Bitcoins are locked on different sort of DeFi platforms or simply have been moved to hard wallets. If we look at the percentage of BTC being stored at hard wallets, then we will quickly realize that we're at close to all time highs. Which is very bullish, but it also means that there isn't much liquid BTC on the exchanges, and selling a few thousand bitcoins on the spot market (within a short period of time) can easily affect the market.

And this is exactly what we experienced yesterday. Hopefully I'm making sense so far.

WHY WOULD ANYONE DO THAT?

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It is a valid question to ask: why would anyone sell 1500 BTC on the spot markets within a minute? Why not spread that sale within time and OBVIOUSLY enjoy much higher profits. Wouldn't it be logical to sell little by little, whenever the price of Bitcoin would be close to all time highs?

And this is what I'm thinking: whenever mass liquidations happen, we witness several weeks of price side-movements and another period of accumulation. Since many "bulls" had their positions liquidated - there simply isn't enough strength to quickly bounce back to previous price levels. That gives plenty of time and opportunity for those who caused the entire dump to slowly and steadily buy back their Bitcoin. With huge discounts.

Am I making sense?

WHAT'S NEXT? CAN BTC REACH 100K usd level this year?

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This is the right question and I would like to hear from all of you. What would you expect in the near future? Assuming this bull run isn't over - do you still believe that BTC can reach 100k usd before the year ends? Would only one month be enough to double the value of Bitcoin?

Allow me to share my view: my simple answer would be NO. It is very unlikely that within only a few weeks we can reach such a high level. If we look at any flash crash that took place this year, any flash crash which triggered mass liquidation - we will notice long periods of accumulation following a dump.

And this is exactly what I would expect till the end of this year. I may be wrong and perhaps we will witness another ATH (all time high). However ... I think it's a very unlikely scenario.

DO SOME MATH AND EARN SOLID UPVOTE

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Would you like to earn 100% upvote on your comment? Then share your thoughts on this particular topic and answer this simple question: how much $$$ was worth those dumped 1500 bitcoin right before the entire dump started?

ps. As usual: I would appreciate every single resteem :)

Project.hope founder,
Cheers, Piotr

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Thanks for this comprehensive assessment on the recent "flash crash". I agree with the opinions expressed in the post.

I think that it is unlikely that Bitcoin will reach 100,000 by the end of the year. The crypto market is moving in a healthy way in my opinion. As can be seen from the logarithmic scale chart below, Bitcoin price is in line with historical averages.

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There have been people who predicted that December of this year will be similar to 2013 or 2017. ( Two peaks seen on the chart) Many players in the crypto market also preferred to buy this dream. The recent decline may have been influenced by what was stated in your article, as well as the concern that the dream of a big December rally will not come true.

However, it is quite satisfactory that the Bitcoin price is doubling on average every year. In fact, Ethereum is increasing more than 3 times on average every year. I think that there is no reason to be concerned unless the market deviates from the trajectory I stated above for a very long time.

Over the past three days, the price of Bitcoin has fallen by about 9000 USD. Before the decline, 1500 Bitcoin was worth $ 85.5 million. (1500x57,000=85,500, 000) After the decline, 1500 Bitcoin is worth 72 million dollars. (1.500x48.000=72.000.000)

 3 years ago 

Dear @muratkbesiroglu

I truly appreciate your awesome comment buddy.

I think that it is unlikely that Bitcoin will reach 100,000 by the end of the year.

Now it's clear more than ever. BTC is already below 50k and only 20 days left till end of the year. I'm not even sure if reaching all time high is even possible any more in such a short span of time.

There have been people who predicted that December of this year will be similar to 2013 or 2017. ( Two peaks seen on the chart)

And those people would most likely be right. If those leveraged longs would not be liquidated, then BTC would probably break ATH already. But that one huge manipulation and following cascade of liquidations changed everything. Wouldn't you agree?

Stay safe and enjoy upcoming weekend :)
Yours, Piotr

Nice work! You just got yourself a $2.24 upvote. Enjoy! Check us out at acom.uno or swing by for a chat at ACOM Discord

85500000$ were these 1500 bitcoin about value resteem and follow because it is a very interesting, informative Post ❗️👍
Best regards atego

 3 years ago (edited)

Thanks for joining our little quizz and for resteeming this post :) Upvote on the way

I don't think Bitcoin will reach that legendary 100k level in a matter of 25 days. And if did, then to me, it would sound like a negative sign for the long-term growth of crypto. Pumping Bitcoin to double value in a single month will eventually mean dumping it in the months that come afterward. And I always prefer slow and steady growth over pump-dump scenarios.

how much $$$ was worth those dumped 1500 bitcoin right before the entire dump started?

Honestly, I'm not the best person to answer that question as I usually don't care about the day-to-day prices, but to the best of my memory, it was something like 57k so the amount sold was probably worth about 85m ?

Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this matter. Have a good week :)

 3 years ago 

Hi @qsyal

Thanks for dropping by and sharing your feedback with me.

I don't think Bitcoin will reach that legendary 100k level in a matter of 25 days.

We clearly are on the same page.

Now it's clear more than ever. BTC is already below 50k and only 20 days left till end of the year. I'm not even sure if reaching all time high is even possible any more in such a short span of time.

If only those leveraged longs would not be liquidated, then BTC would probably break ATH already. But that one huge manipulation and following cascade of liquidations changed everything. Wouldn't you agree?

I always prefer slow and steady growth over pump-dump scenarios.
So do I. It's much healthier way to move forward.

but to the best of my memory, it was something like 57k so the amount sold was probably worth about 85m ?

That's correct. Solid upvote on your comment on the way! :D

Stay safe and stay lucky ;)
Cheers, Piotr

I completely agree with you in your analysis, whoever sold those 1500 BTC will now be able to double his purchase at a lower price and will have obtained a higher profit in the future, the price of those BTc was estimated to be around 87 million dollars.

 3 years ago 

hi @joseph1956

the price of those BTc was estimated to be around 87 million dollars.

That's correct. Solid upvote on your comment on the way! :D

That's a good observation. I was thinking the same as why the market is crashing with some selling 1500 BTC. But that's around $77166150 so we can't ignore the fact. Also, the news about Biden was there.
Hopefully, the market will surge a little but 100k is an impossible thing. Maybe next year it will be close to that but not in this year. My guess is around $60k at the end of the year. Let's see.

 3 years ago 

Great to see that you're still around @iamjohn

Thanks for dropping by and for joining my little quizz. Upvote on the way :)

Cheers buddy

Thanks. I would live to join to your community. You can check my profile, I'm lately writing on crypto a d finance.
Looking for updates.

I know that the crypto market is far from being perfect as some whales could still control the direction and value of Bitcoin at the moment. To me, this was pure manipulation and of course, it mostly enriches the rich more. This post made perfect sense to me as it further opened my eyes as to how the market manipulation takes place and how it was achived. THE post further highlights what made the manipulation possible.

The value of the bitcoin as of when sold was $85,500,000. The 1500 BTC was sold at a value of $57,000 each @crypto.piotr

Whales are made to throw ambergris.😌 needn't to worry would be fragrant time ahead 😄🙏

 3 years ago 

The value of the bitcoin as of when sold was $85,500,000. The 1500 BTC was sold at a value of $57,000 each

Bingo. Solid upvote on the way:)

thank you. i appreciate

If you'd take price at crash to be $50,000 the 1500 BTC would be worth 75 mil
I though it's over at 47k put a little long on hoping for a quick earner and got liquidated when it collapsed further to 42k

As to the 100k this year as weird as it sounds i Dont think so and that is why it wouldn't surprise me if it happened whole years been a bit weird and unexpected

 3 years ago 

Thanks for joining my little quizz @mattjack

Comment upvoted already :)

Greetings @crypto.piotr, I always thought that BTC would reach 100k by the end of the year this due to the pace it was going in its bullish channel, but now with these two shocks that the market has presented in less than a week I doubt it will manage to reach 80k to be able to break its all time high.

Whales have always bled the cryptocurrency market but this is inevitable as everyone is looking to generate more income. Let's hope and at least the market manages to close the value of its cryptocurrencies at a good price.

 3 years ago 

Dear @carlir

I appreciate your comment.

I always thought that BTC would reach 100k by the end of the year this due to the pace it was going in its bullish channel, but now with these two shocks that the market has presented in less than a week I doubt it will manage to reach 80k to be able to break its all time high.

Indeed. I also would be amazed if we would reach even 80k by end of this year.

I wonder when people will learn not to overleverage themselfs. It does look like leverage is almost like some sort of "drug" and "addiction" to many investors out there.
Wouldn't you agree on that?

Have a great friday buddy,
Yours, Piotr

hello @crypto.piotr,
it is impressive that a single whale can move the market in such a way, although impressive it is not uncommon, remember when mr. elon musk moved the market

I personally believe that as long as there is fear of a fall by investors, any event can trigger a market correction.

Finally, I am sure that the BTC will reach 100.000 $, I have no doubt about that because of the trajectory it has had since its creation.

 3 years ago 

hi @trabajosdelsiglo

it is impressive that a single whale can move the market in such a way

That's the problem we're facing: to many BTCs are locked in DeFi or sitting on hard wallets and there isn't much liquidity on the exchanges.

Finally, I am sure that the BTC will reach 100.000 $, I have no doubt about that because of the trajectory it has had since its creation.

Do you actually believe, that BTC can reach that price level before end of this year?

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