Small miners will probably be closing down and within few more years mining will be done mostly by corporations. And will be more centralized than ever. Small businesses simply won't be able to compete.
Wouldn't you agree on that?

I agree. They will shut down, some of them. I see BTC centralization of mining a problem. But "yet", we don't need to worry about it.

I wonder what are your personal expectation towards price of BTC in near future?

I expect the 2nd scenario to be valid. The price might drop a bit from now (in the short/mid term). Yes, less supply means higher price. The demand will not come instantly. So the price increase will be gradual.

Also I'm wondering, if halving isn't already priced-in. In the past not many people seemed to know about halving, so for many it came as a huge news. News which could bring some hype and switch on FOMO.
Currently many seem to be expecting similar market behaviours. And that's a major difference between now and past. Wouldn't you agree? Just curious what do you think.

Those events like halving are mostly priced-in, because the miners knows the exact date and they start to price-in it in months advance. If the mining costs are (before halving) around 3-4k, tomorrow it will be 6-8k, where below those prices most of the miners won't sell! This doesn't mean that the market will not move to 4-6k levels for a short period of time, it certainly might. Because of manipulation - just check the news from previous days - pure FOMO - massaging the average Joe to step in, while the "whales" are cashing out at 10k levels...but promising regular users new ATH and 20k levels almost in couple of days. Longs vs. shorts were in ratio 75/25, so the drop/dump was inevitable. I was expecting it right after the halving, but it came before. But the ratio in my mind told me "not to overreact by FOMO" and it was right.