Winter is Coming

Many of us know the emblem of the House Stark in the Game of Thrones series. Every time I read this simple phrase it reminds me of what is coming soon in post-covid-19 times; the presence of inflation begins to knock on the doors of our houses demanding part of what we cannot pay in the present, taking a debt from the future and making it current. As if this were not enough, the ghost of deflation is more and more present and if it arrives it will be difficult to achieve a exit.

And it is that of all this, we as active market demand have been drastically affected, with three months of confinement it is difficult to sustain an economy, however healthy it may be. The market continues its course towards manipulation, false signs of recovery that reflect an empty recovery that will never give an answer to macroeconomic indicators, or the bankruptcy of companies that, even with the injection of capital, cannot revive, and even so, it continues taking as the way to achieve the expected solution.

For those who delight in chaos, they have plenty of material to prepare a script worthy of being in Dante's dreams, where the economic board is playing an institutional reset, or new world order, each one drawing his conclusions.

A curious fact is the movement of many Central Banks in registering a fall in dollar public debt holdings and an increase in gold holdings, for this look at the records of Russia and China.

The adventure of many countries to change paper for metal is given by fear of what is to come; no one wants excess American debt. The fragmentation of the European financial system, is a term that I really heard for the first time and that is increasingly used and it is not surprising its intonation in the next decade, be careful but before, much earlier. Debts are no longer shared.

Winter is approaching, and with great force, I do not know if we will be able to deal traditionally or focus on the impudence of the world economic forum of a new world order.

I think many will hold on and start exploring new ideas, non-traditional solutions, and beyond hard metals, there is the presence of cryptos. Digital currencies may already have a place in the security of those who, like their server, distrust institutions and their solutions, fill us with debt to pay a debt that only serves to save themselves and not people. Think hard, but winter is coming.