Hive: Monthly Distribution Report Through 6/30/2020 (Whales Are Losing Power)steemCreated with Sketch.

in SteemLeo4 months ago

For about two years, I did a monthly report on Steem called "STEEM: Whales Are Losing Their Power....The System Is Not Broken". This took a look at how the distribution of Steem Power changed on a monthly basis. The presumption on there was that the Whales were just getting more powerful when the reality showed the exact opposite. When it came to Steem Power, over a two years period of time, things were flattening out.

Of course, we know that Steemit Inc selling part of the stake each month had a lot to do with it. Unfortunately, as we found out, not enough was sold.

I decided to bring this report over to Hive so that we can monitor how things are going. I am going to use the first chart I have from Steem as the initial basis since Hive has its roots there. The chart is pertinent for all categories other than the Whales since we know that is much different than on Hive due to Steemit Inc.


These are the numbers through June 30, 2020.

Each month I monitor what is going on with new accounts and the amount of MVests in each category. I do this to determine what trends are taking place.

Now that we are at end of month, time to post the numbers again.

I want to thank @arcange for the work done each day compiling these numbers and making the charts.

We will be showing 3 months worth of data for analysis purposes to see how the 90 trend might be.

The first chart is from August of 2017, the month I started on Steem. It is placed here to provide some contrast to see how things are changing over a longer period of time.

Here is the breakdown.

8/1/2017

The total MVests here is 336,932.

On a percentage basis:

Whales 75.44%
Orcas 14.86%
Dolphins 7.16%
Minnows 2.14%
Red Fish .01%
Inactive .40%

4/30/2020

https://leofinance.io/hive-133987/@arcange/hive-statistics-20200430-en

The total MVests here is 309,285.

On a percentage basis:

Whales 42.38%
Orcas 26.22%
Dolphins 17.95%
Minnows 8.87%
Red Fish 4.57%

The change over that time period is as such:

Whales -6.74%
Orcas +5.49%
Dolphins +5.22%
Minnows +6.74%
Red Fish +6.78%

5/31/2020

https://leofinance.io/hive-133987/@arcange/hive-statistics-20200531-en

The total MVests here is 273,246.

On a percentage basis:

Whales 36.31%
Orcas 29.46%
Dolphins 19.07%
Minnows 9.97%
Red Fish 5.19%

The change over that time period is as such:

Whales -14.32%
Orcas +12.36%
Dolphins +6.24%
Minnows +12.40%
Red Fish +13.57%

6/30/2020

https://leofinance.io/hive-133987/@arcange/hive-statistics-20200630-en

The total MVests here is 265,626.

On a percentage basis:

Whales 36.24%
Orcas 29.21%
Dolphins 19.20%
Minnows 10.01%
Red Fish 5.33%

The change over that time period is as such:

Whales -.19%
Orcas -.84%
Dolphins +.68%
Minnows +.40%
Red Fish +2.69%

4/30/2020

5/31/2020

6/30/2020

So what does this all tell us?

Perhaps we are starting to see the beginning of a trend we can follow. There was a lot of changes due to the airdrop and the exchanges having HIVE powered up. We should be done with all that so our normal trend can be established.

Overall, we are seeing the Whales losing power. All categories were down in terms of total MVests. However, this month, the Dolphins, Minnows, and Red Fish were able to gain in terms of percentage of the MVests held. This means they gained more power. At the same time the two top levels lost influence.

On April 30, 2020, the Whales and Orcas had 212,160 MVests (68.66% of the total); on May 31, 2020, 179,7040 MVests (65.76% of the total), a decrease of 4.2%; on June 30, 2020, 173,858 MVests (65.46% of the total), a decrease of .46%.

We will see how things pan out over the next few months. It does look like we are seeing a return to the trend of slow spread out of the token distribution. This was what took place on Steem and appears to be following the same pattern on Hive.

Hive Power determines the influence one has over Witness Voting, the reward pool, and the proposal system. A flattening of the token distribution means the influence is spreading wider, incorporating more accounts.

We will have to see if this continues.


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