Model Madness 2020: ACC, Tuesday Tournaments Preview
Today, we're covering the four tournaments that take place on Tuesday including the start of the ACC tournament, one of the major conferences that has multiple teams fighting for spots in the tournament and looking to polish their resumes. We'll cover which teams are fighting for seeding and which teams are fighting for a tournament spot.
Coming up tomorrow is the big preview with nine tournaments starting on Wednesday. Should be fun.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Last Year's Champion: Duke
Leaders
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #4 Florida State | 26-5 | 1 | 2436.870 (12) | 0.2205 (6) | 0.1859 (7) | 0.589 (7) |
| #10 Duke | 25-6 | 4 | 2689.010 (4) | 0.2106 (7) | 0.1907 (6) | 0.650 (3) |
| #15 Louisville | 24-7 | 3 | 2415.196 (14) | 0.1950 (13) | 0.1765 (9) | 0.553 (12) |
Challengers
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #17 Virginia | 23-7 | 2 | 2067.005 (60) | 0.1785 (15) | 0.1314 (26) | 0.420 (30) |
Outsiders
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC State | 19-12 | 5 | 2004.789 (71) | 0.1024 (63) | 0.0907 (60) | 0.354 (49) |
| Notre Dame | 19-12 | 6 | 1968.439 (77) | 0.0833 (80) | 0.0708 (83) | 0.334 (51) |
Florida State won the ACC outright beating the likes of traditional powerhouse teams like Duke, Louisville, and more recently Virginia. Unfortunately for them, the ACC is in a down year, and when they would normally be a lock for a 1 seed, it looks like they are stuck at 2 line for the time being. They have solid rankings in the Top 10 except for the EDM at 12.
The models like Duke a little bit better even though they finished in a three-way tie at 2nd and received the 4 seed. Duke were winners of last year tournament and they are coming in with momentum of beating their rivals UNC. Louisville got the 3 seed and are a solid Top 15 team all around. Duke and Louisville have the opportunity to move to a 2 seed in the national tourney by winning out.
Virginia is in a weird spot at 2. They were probably the worse team of the 3 tied, but ended up with the best seed. Models are all over the place with Virginia with the EDM having them outside the Top 50, while the SPM likes their schedule and puts them at 15. They are in the conversation for a 4 seed in the NCAA tournament.
NC State is on the bubble's edge. They can't afford to lose their first game and they really could use a win over Duke in the quarterfinals to solidify their resume. They are a Top 100 team in all models and barely Top 50 in WRI. Notre Dame is a comparable team with a slightly worse schedule which leaves them outside the bubble, but they could play themselves onto it if they make a run to the final. The other teams in the ACC pretty much have to win the tournament to have a shot.
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
Last Year's Champion: Iona
Leaders
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena | 19-10 | 1 | 1816.967 (105) | 0.0513 (118) | 0.0463 (113) | 0.187 (119) |
Challengers
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rider | 18-12 | 3 | 1632.454 (147) | 0.0176 (160) | 0.0196 (151) | 0.154 (146) |
| St. Peter's | 17-12 | 2 | 1644.454 (142) | 0.0068 (175) | 0.0065 (174) | 0.149 (149) |
| Monmouth | 18-13 | 4 | 1544.371 (170) | 0.0125 (168) | 0.0097 (170) | 0.132 (162) |
Outsiders
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac | 15-15 | 5 | 1240.117 (230) | -0.0328 (211) | -0.0299 (213) | 0.105 (193) |
| Iona | 11-16 | 7 | 1415.315 (197) | -0.0716 (257) | -0.0542 (248) | 0.101 (199) |
In of the weaker one-bid conferences, Siena has a pretty solid lead on every team in the MAAC. With all rankings in the Top 120 and a solid 15-5 record in conference, they are the favorites to go the tourney and maybe get a 14 or 15 seed.
Rider, St. Peter's, and Monmouth are the three main challengers each with wins in the high teens and rankings in the Top 200 for all of the models. St. Peter's might have an edge over the other two teams simply due to the fact that they play in the quarterfinals which gives them an extra day of rest before the semifinals.
Quinnipiac gets mentioned as an outsider as a 5 seed and the last team with a .500 or better record. Iona comes in as the prior year's champion and they have a decent EDM score for their record, but their record shows they'll probably struggle to get any momentum in a relatively open tournament.
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
Last Year's Champion: NC Central
Leaders
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC Central | 17-13 | 1 | 1244.894 (228) | -0.0393 (217) | -0.0375 (221) | 0.034 (301) |
| Norfolk State | 16-15 | 3 | 1391.224 (201) | -0.0707 (256) | -0.0567 (252) | 0.052 (264) |
| North Carolina A&T | 16-15 | 2 | 1239.776 (231) | -0.0453 (223) | -0.0411 (224) | 0.037 (294) |
Challengers
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bethune-Cookman | 16-14 | 4 | 1197.428 (251) | -0.0726 (258) | -0.0624 (265) | 0.043 (284) |
| Morgan State | 15-16 | 5 | 970.994 (299) | -0.1035 (291) | -0.0849 (285) | 0.031 (304) |
Outsiders
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina State | 11-17 | 7 | 804.594 (319) | -0.1281 (310) | -0.1091 (308) | 0.021 (326) |
| Coppin State | 11-20 | 6 | 724.821 (327) | -0.1413 (319) | -0.1221 (318) | 0.034 (299) |
MEAC is typically one of the weakest conferences out there and this year appears no different (No team has a model rank below 200). It is also one of the more open conferences out there. NC Central has a majority of the strongest rankings by the models, but Norfolk State and North Carolina A&T are right on their heels and have comparable records.
Bethune-Cookman and Morgan State are both teams floating around .500 and are for the most part Top 300 teams according to our models. Unfortunately, given that there are around 350 teams in Division I Basketball, that is not really something to be too proud about.
South Carolina State and Coppin State get credit as outsiders as they have double digit wins and are not bottom 10 ranked teams. The other three teams in the conference are bottom 10 ranked teams so they aren't included as none of them has more than 5 wins each. The winner of this league get the award of a 16 seed and a date with either another 16 seed or the wrath of a 1 seed.
Southwestern Athletic Conference
Last Year's Champion: Prairie View A&M
Leaders
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prairie View A&M | 18-13 | 1 | 1265.848 (223) | -0.0290 (208) | -0.0177 (199) | 0.041 (290) |
| Southern | 16-15 | 2 | 1438.571 (189) | -0.0599 (240) | -0.0523 (245) | 0.016 (328) |
Challengers
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Southern | 16-15 | 3 | 873.939 (310) | -0.0468 (225) | -0.0489 (241) | 0.028 (314) |
| Grambling State | 17-14 | 5 | 1012.189 (291) | -0.0804 (268) | -0.0729 (269) | 0.014 (331) |
Outsiders
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson State | 14-17 | 4 | 1124.696 (272) | -0.1005 (289) | -0.0867 (289) | 0.010 (339) |
| Alcorn State | 14-14 | 6 | 912.463 (306) | -0.0987 (288) | -0.0916 (296) | 0.012 (334) |
The Southwestern Conference, like the MEAC, is one of the weakest conferences out there. Prairie View A&M comes into the tournament as defending champions and looks to win the automatic bid and 16 seed that comes with winning the SWAC Championship. They have a solid SPM and MASPM around 200, but have an abysmal WRI for the leading team in a conference (290).
Southern comes into the tournament with a 2 seed and the best EDM ranking of all teams playing. Texas Southern and Grambling State have winning records and several Top 300 rankings which makes them competitive in this conference but won't help advance them in the national tournament if they can make it there.
Jackson State and Alcorn State get mentions as outsiders since they do have a good number of wins each despite playing in a terrible conference and have relatively competitive ratings in the 2019 models. Their WRI ratings, however, are terrible and place them in the bottom 20 of all teams.