The Realist Politics of the Contagion Game – Herd Immunity may Prove to be Completely Worthless
Refraining from using quarantine is arguably sane in an unsound environment. Still a risky gamble, and without moralizing, a cynical coordination game. Sweden has gained world-wide attention for practicing herd immunity [1]. A fancy way of saying that a considerable share of the population gets to be sick. The figures are disastrous so far. The foremost merit of this infamous practice, can instead be appreciated in terms of PR. A way to cover for unready authorities, free-riding on neighbours, and the embellishing of agendas other than the well-being of the population.
Question marks regarding immunity are decisive. If those afflicted become immune for sure, then an effective vaccine is more likely. If such vaccine is produced within reasonable time, then counties like New Zealand are winners, and Sweden has then sacrificed thousands of people for nothing. If those sick do not become immune, then contagion may in principle continue indefinitely without more rigorous measures. The current course of action is thus defect in both cases. Note that the connection between immunity and likelihood of a vaccine is not essential for the analysis.
Superficial historical knowledge was enough to realise that coordinated efforts such as them in New Zealand work. The course of action of the Government of Sweden would have been strictly outrageous under such regime, and may still prove to be completely worthless. However, it is fair to say that myopic economic behaviour has led to ‘careless’ practices around the globe.
The socioeconomic problems which arise due to interventions are primarily associated with unregulated capitalist systems. Countries which have solved their problems by acting resolutely, have the opportunity to open up, with sanctions against those who have taken a more reckless approach. The strategies played out against contagion is realpolitik in a world with considerable political uncertainty. Therefore many may still go Sweden’s way. In such state of the world, Sweden can climb to a comfortable mediocre position in a world of losers, sacrificed for the benefit of a few who already have been given a fortune.
[1] Herd immunity has been one of the buzz-words in the media mythos – presented as a desirable goal along with the famous ‘flattening of the curve’. However, a whole class growth processes under limited resources display initial steeper, and then more modest growth. Invocation of a logistic curve* is of course not a guarantee for success. In this context, the virus spreads by using a stock of healthy humans as limited resources. Such a curve is compatible with the case when all individuals get sick. A proposition which was subsequently admitted, and embraced by the authorities.