Fantasy Premier League (FPL) - Double Gameweek 27 (DGW27) - Manchester City (and Southampton) Analysis
Manchester City and Southampton are the only teams that play twice in DGW27 so here's a quick overview of my thoughts on whether there are any players worth considering.
Southampton
In short, no. They might have 2 matches, but one of them is against runaway leaders Manchester City who only last night, put 4 goals past Wolves (who have a significantly stronger defence than the saints). To me, this 2nd match from a Southampton perspective is of no benefit to FPL players and in all likelihood, with their defenders, is more likely to get you negative points than positive. If you own Southampton players already, by all means keep them. If you don't, then I'd avoid for the time being.
Manchester City
If you don't already own 3 Man City players, then you've almost certainly been missing out on a lot of points. But the flip side to this is that you have an opportunity to bring at least one in before another double gameweek against Manchester United and Southampton. So who to get?
👇 Some of the options
Goalkeeper / Defenders
Ederson is the closest you'll get to a Pep Guardiola player guaranteed to start. He's only missed 1 game this season which was due to injury. He's expensive at £6.1m but it's better to spend a bit more on a player who plays 180 minutes than a player who only plays 90. As far as defenders go, it's a tough call.
At left back, you have Cancelo (£6.2m), Zinchenko (£5.5m) and although he hasn't played much, Mendy (£5.9m). At right back, you'll likely see Cancelo (again) and Walker (£6.1m). I wouldn't be surprised to see a strong team picked against Man Utd, with Cancelo and Walker starting although with both of these playing last night, it could just as easily be Zinchenko and Cancelo or Zinchenko and Walker. And then more rotation for the midweek game against Southampton. Of this group, Cancelo is the most attacking threat and could provide an attacking return, but he could just as easily net you 2 points which is all he achieved in double gameweek 26.
Again, at Centre back, we've seen rotation recently with Dias (£6.1m), Laporte (£6.0m) and Stones (£5.2m) all featuring. Stones was rested against Wolves so is the most likely to play the double, although Dias has the most minutes this season. Stones is the cheapest of the 3 so is the lowest risk too. Again, it's not without its risk but from all of the defenders, Stones is my pick.
Midfielders and Attackers
Over the last 5 matches, Man City's midfielders stack up as follows:
| Player | Minutes Played | Expected Goals (xG) | Expected Assists (xA) | Threat | Creativity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus | 314 | 2.72 | 0.59 | 216.0 | 66.3 |
| Sterling | 352 | 1.70 | 0.77 | 196.0 | 94.7 |
| Gundogan | 257 | 1.19 | 0.11 | 130.0 | 33.6 |
| Rodri | 271 | 0.85 | 0.65 | 35.0 | 83.2 |
| Mahrez | 370 | 0.78 | 0.85 | 217.0 | 97.9 |
| Silva | 353 | 0.76 | 0.53 | 92.0 | 96.0 |
| De Bruyne | 252 | 0.37 | 0.73 | 98.0 | 116.7 |
| Foden | 204 | 0.19 | 0.40 | 87.0 | 80.0 |
| Torres | 86 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 29.0 | 5.9 |
| Aguero | 62 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 6.0 | 16.5 |
I'll quickly discount Aguero and Torres due to their lack of game time. In Aguero's case, he could certainly be given a run out in one of the matches but would be a high risk pick. Rodri is the most defensive of the remaining options which is reflected in his "Threat" so doesn't appeal to me. All of the other players have had plenty of minutes so we're down to down to 7 options (6 midfielders, 1 forward).
The Forward
If you need a forward, and can afford Gabriel Jesus (£9.2m) then he could be a differential pick (he's only in 4.1% of active teams). Personally, I think he's too expensive given his rotation risk (and Pep's propensity to play midfielders as a False Nine).
The Midfield
Now it's dangerous to do what I'm about to do as a "per 90 minute" metric is meaningless when a player only ever plays 70 minutes but as a point of comparison, I'm going to share it anyway...
| Player | xG per 90 | xA per 90 | Threat / Min | Creativity / Min | Threat + Creativity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling | 0.43 | 0.20 | 0.56 | 0.27 | 0.83 |
| Gundogan | 0.42 | 0.04 | 0.51 | 0.13 | 0.64 |
| Mahrez | 0.19 | 0.21 | 0.59 | 0.26 | 0.85 |
| Silva | 0.19 | 0.14 | 0.26 | 0.27 | 0.53 |
| De Bruyne | 0.13 | 0.26 | 0.39 | 0.46 | 0.85 |
| Foden | 0.08 | 0.18 | 0.43 | 0.39 | 0.82 |
You can see from the last 5 matches, they're all reasonably matched. Gundogan and Silva appear the weakest on Threat + Creativity but we've seen Gundogan needing just the slightest of opportunity to score (as you can see for his xG value). So they're all incredibly evenly matched on paper and to be quite honest, I'm struggling to choose 🙄
In my opinion, Mahrez is most at risk of not playing due to the 180 minutes in the last 2 matches. De Bruyne has been pivotal to the team in recent seasons but is just returning from injury so might have his minutes managed. Foden hasn't played a great deal recently (25 minutes in the last 3 matches) so could be due a run in the team but this could also mean Pep doesn't fancy him. Sterling and Silva had a rest recently so should play both matches. Given the risk of rotation, I'd probably choose one of the cheaper options (I have Gundogan in my team already) but the explosive potential of Sterling and De Bruyne likely being on penalties makes them good picks too.
Summary
- Ederson is as safe a pick as you'll get from Man City (he's in my team)
- Stones is the lowest risk pick in defence given his lower price tag (he's also in my team)
- Sterling is a potential captain choice and should play both matches (if you can afford him)
- Gundogan is a low risk option in Midfield (he's also in my team).
Please share your thoughts, I look forward to reading them 👍