Sometimes you take what you can get...

I have been expecting a dip for some time in BTC, it's now time to prepare for life without that dip...

If you have been following my blog for any length of time you have probably heard (read) me mention that there was a pretty decent chance that bitcoin would break lower before ultimately going higher.

There were several reasons for this, off the top of my head some can be seen here...

• 20% Post Halving Dip similar to what we saw in 2016
• CME gap down around $7.6k yet to be filled
• BTC showing relative weakness compared with equities
• High correlation with stocks at a time when stocks were looking vulnerable to another pandemic induced dip
• Profit taking after a stellar rally from the lows back in March
• Tons of support in the $7k range to complete an inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern

As you can see, there were plenty of reasons for bitcoin to breakdown from the $9-$10k trading range, except it didn't.

It's continued to go sideways and see ever decreasing volatility...

https://hive.blog/hive-167922/@jrcornel/the-longer-the-base-the-higher-in-space

A change in tune?

Bitcoin has now spent several months basically going sideways mostly between that above mentioned $9k and $10k range, something that has been frustrating and surprising for many bitcoin investors/traders.

However, that lack of movement isn't likely to last forever and given the fact that it hasn't been able to go down, it's possible that the next move may in fact be up.

What if that Inverse Head and Shoulder pattern I had been expecting all this time looked more like this:

(Source: https://twitter.com/sandybaker77/status/1285611209602011136/photo/1)

There is no rule regarding what an inverse head and shoulder pattern MUST look like in order for it to signal a bull market, after all it's merely a reflection of all the buyers and sellers within a given market and their tendencies.

There was the initial move down, followed by a rebound, followed by an even deeper move lower, followed by a rebound, followed by the final push down - which is where we are right now.

The fact that the bears haven't been able to push the price lower right now is probably a bullish thing in of itself.

What to expect if this plays out?

If this pattern were to play out the measured move would take the price to about $17k (give or take about $1k).

The measured move is not a good predictor of prices per say, but it's more of an idea of what this pattern MAY yield if it were to play out.

You obtain it by taking the low of the Head, which was about $3,800, and subtract it from the height of the previous surge, which was about $10,400 and that should give you an idea of what this pattern may yield. In this instance it would be 10,400 - 3,800 = 6,600 target move.

The target move is then added to the top of the inverse head and shoulder neckline, or breakout line, which would be around that $10,400 area.

Added together ($10,400 + $6,600) and you get a measured move target of about $17k.

Given the macro back drop, IE low interest rates and global money printing, combined with more stimulus on the way, where we are in the halving cycle, and the extremely low volatility and I'd say bitcoin has all the right stuff for this inverse head and shoulder pattern to play out in a very bullish way.

Combine all that with the fact that the bears haven't been able to push the price down even a little when they probably should have been able to leads me to believe that the next big move has probably switched to up.

Even the Doc is allowed to change his mind from time to time. :)

Stay informed my friends.

-Doc