Even with the drop today, Bitcoin still on pace to hit $100k by the Summer

in GEMS13 days ago

Bitcoin continues to track where it should be based on past patterns...

Bitcoin had a nasty drop today, but that doesn't mean the bull is over.

In fact, even if this does end up being a 30% correction, the big orange coin is still on pace to hit $100k by this summer.

I talk more about that in this post here:

https://hive.blog/hive-167922/@jrcornel/will-this-dip-in-btc-be-a-small-blip-or-the-start-of-a-deeper-30-correction

In fact, even after the drop today, the price is basically right where it should be.

It's smack dab between the previous two post halving rallies, sitting right about on that "average" line as I type...

Check it out:

image.png

(Source: https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1363898712045596682/photo/1)

Continuing to follow that average would point to bitcoin hitting $100k by April 18th.

I don't think we are going to hit $100k that quickly, but keep in mind the last major projection on this chart pointed to $41k by December 31st, 2020...

And that prediction only ended up being off by a few weeks.

Given that fact, and the fact that the summer is seasonally very strong for bitcoin, I see no reason why it can't hit $100k sometime between May and July.

It wasn't just Bitcoin...

Most of you reading this noticed the absolute carnage in the altcoin markets as well as the bitcoin markets today, however, it wasn't just crypto...

The stock market as a whole didn't get beat up too badly, with the Dow actually closing up today, but there was a massive rotation taking place under the surface.

There was a ton of movement out of the high flying tech stocks into energy and financials as tech got clobbered and the former did pretty well.

This trend may continue for the next few days and it may include crypto as well.

A lot of the same people own bitcoin and TSLA for example, when bitcoin tanked, TSLA got sold off as well, dropping by some 10% on the day:

image.png

(Source: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui)

I think this rotation is something that we are likely to see continue play out over the coming days as the 10 year yield continues to rise, basically signaling that the economy is likely to start rebounding and reopening in the near future.

Due to this, money is repositioning for this reopening trade which is going to weigh on tech and possibly crypto.

However, with more stimulus on the way in the coming weeks and the FED not going away anytime soon, I think once this rotation is mostly finished, those stocks and bitcoin (crypto) will resume the uptrend that's been in place the last several months.

This all points to bitcoin and crypto doing very well by this summer.

I personally thought we might get to $60k before we saw this sort of price action with bitcoin, but I guess it started a little earlier than expected.

Now the only question is whether it goes for the full 30% or holds up somewhere short of that...

Stay informed my friends.

-Doc

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The slight downturn might be a mix of the r/wallstreetbets crowd getting disillusioned with the cause (as many got stuck with valueless stocks), Australia kicking out Facebook and besmirching big tech as a whole, and Congress being as gridlocked as ever over the stimulus package now that Trump is acquitted and Biden is not perceived as the uniter that everyone hoped for (because you can’t unify with insane people like MTG and Hawley - not happening. But I digress.)

When the stimulus finally gets done, it may cause BTC to rebound, because some folks will have the spare cash to buy the dip, and at the same time paying for a $1.9T package may weaken the dollar and BTC is catching on as a reliable hedge against inflation and economic chaos, in spite of crypto’s reputation for volatility.

Even if none of this is rooted in fact, what becomes important is that investors perceive these as causes for swings in the market, and make decisions to get in or out based on those perceptions (with bots piling on) and create a self-fulfilling prophecy.

This might also be time to get into alts like ETH, as some of the ones that got clobbered will also rebound as strongly as (or moreso than) BTC.

Should be a year to watch!