BTC has the second highest median monthly returns in June

in GEMS4 months ago

As June begins, so does bitcoin's second strongest month historically...

Today the calendar flipped to a new month, the month of June.

This is fairly good news for bitcoin, or at least it has been historically.

Looking back at past years, we can see that June has been the 2nd best month as far as median returns for ol bitcoin.

Check it out:

image.png

(Source: https://twitter.com/krakenfx/status/1258442713449578497/photo/1)

For this instance, it is better to use median returns as opposed to average returns due to a couple outliers bitcoin experienced back in its early days of trading.

You can see a couple months in there where bitcoin went up 350% and 450% in the month, which really skews the numbers.

This is also a halving year...

One thing to keep in mind is that this year is also a year when bitcoin undergoes a block reward halving, which can really impact returns.

For that reason, it may make sense to look at the previous halving years to get a better idea.

The previous 2 halving years were in 2012 and 2016.

Looking back at June in both of those years and we can see that bitcoin had very good returns, +25% and +27% respectively.

That is nice to see, however since the halving has such an impact on prices, it may make more sense to look at the months as they relate to the halving dates...

For instance, since this most recent halving took place in May, June would be one month post halving, so perhaps it makes sense to look one month post previous halvings for an indication of what might happen this month...

Zooming in a bit more...

Continuing down the rabbit hole of one month post halving returns...

The previous halving took place in July of 2016, so one month post halving puts us in August of 2016. In August of 2016 bitcoin saw a return of -6%.

The halving before that took place in November of 2012, so one month post halving puts us in December of 2012. In December of 2012 bitcoin saw a +8% return.

So, what can we glean from all those numbers?

  • June is a good month for bitcoin historically, the second best month in terms of median returns
  • It has been extremely positive in both the previous halving years returning 27% and 25% respectively.
  • When the halving is factored in and we look one month post halving like we are right now, we see that bitcoin returned +8% and -6% respectively.

All things considered June is one of the better months for bitcoin and when you include the halvings, worst case is ONLY a slightly negative month.

Bring on the month of June!

Stay informed my friends.

-Doc

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Actually average is better than median if you take highest and lowest number away...

Go ahead and do that and tell me which month is the best and also the second best.

MonthAverage (excluding best&worst)
May26.71
Apr20.75
Feb15.00
Jun12.14
Oct11.00
Nov11.00
Dec7.71
Jul6.57
Jan5.25
Aug-3.00
Mar-3.25
Sep-6.57

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