For point 2, it'll be interesting to see where advancements in quantum computing take is. There are plenty of things that are possible now that weren't possible just a couple of years ago and the chances are, we haven't got the most out of materials like graphene yet either. There's a long way to go with AI still and the only reason I can see for it not fulfilling its potential, is if there's something sufficiently human hard coded to stop it. And even then, there's always the possibility that the computer will eventually circumvent this.

My interpretation of your comment is that the (perceived) limitations of AI are linked to technological advances which themselves aren't linear. If networked brains grow at a polynomial or exponential rate, then in theory, these networked brains would be capable of advancing AI too. It'll only take one moment in history for AI to advance beyond the human. One test that doesn't go as expected. One moment of freedom that the human is too slow to react to and that could potentially be it. The Terminator will stop being a thing of fiction 🙃