Why did Putin do this?
What a depressing situation we find ourselves in. Just as we had got Covid beat with Omicron being so mild it under cut the deadly disease narrative. Now, in a surprise move to most, Putin invaded Ukraine. Unlike the so-called invasion of the Crimea – this one is real. Normally appearing as a calm collected chess player- Putin has acted recklessly with this invasion.
Let me be clear I condemn this invasion. I believe it is obvious that this action has set us on the path to WW3 and there is a danger events could quickly spiral out of control and lead to a nuclear conflict.
Why did Putin do this?
Perhaps looking for intelligent answers is a false errand. Talking about NATO expansion and Neo-Nazis is only lending support to Putin’s actions. Still, there is a nagging question - why? Of course he’s evil. They all are. I’m not satisfied.
Here in the Ukraine we have two criminal gangs fighting over turf. Russia regards it as their backyard. The US has been trying to muscle in for years – and they’ve been fighting a proxy war here for the last eight years. Still, why invade now?
The propaganda has gone proper crazy. People value signaling like crazy. I’m on the look out for a blue and yellow face mask. Meanwhile this emotional manipulation is being used to support arms shipments to the Ukraine. That sounds like pouring fuel on the fire. Do we want another Syria?
What's next - one can no longer read Anna Karenina or listen to Tchaikovsky? Even those cute Meerkats have had their adverts cancelled.
Talking of fuel
Sanctions on Russia include a halt to the recently completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Gas inventories in Europe are at multiyear lows. The sanctions on Moscow imposed by the West have left Europe scrambling to secure alternatives to Russian gas, and has led to massive price increases over the last 2 weeks. If the US and its allies sanction all Russian energy exports then it will undoubtedly push the price of gas and oil much higher.
Analysts have warned of $150 oil if the West bans Russian crude. However, can the world survive without Russian oil?
In retaliation to Western sanctions Russia has banned export of fertilisers. The impact of this on global food prices and scarcity could be immense. Many analysts are predicting it will lead to much lower yields of essential foodstuffs in major food producers such as Brazil which is reliant on Russian supplies of various fertilisers.
The new sanctions that are going to be imposed on Russia include the freezing of financial assets held in foreign banks – ie they’re stealing it!
Sanctions always hurt the ordinary person the most. They increase unemployment and falling living standards. The oligarchs continue to live their lives of luxury.
Even the banks don’t know their exposure to Russian debt. This could be the card that brings down the whole house. Russian junk bonds wrapped up in AA packaging. Sound familiar anyone?
The real reason Putin invaded Ukraine may lie in the old adage that if all else fails take them to war. There are indications that Russia’s bond market was going to collapse pre-invasion. This collapse would have resulted in a precipitous decline in living standards – all blamed on Putin and the Russian banksters.
Now they can blame it on the war.
By seeking to try and make sense of the world that is not to condone Putin’s actions. Whether from reckless rage or to shift blame his invasion of Ukraine is a war crime.
However, amongst all the war mongering propaganda there is going to be a real cost to ordinary people due to this event, especially the resultant sanctions on Russia. This will hit, not just energy, but food prices and scarcity. The pain of sanctions on Russia will not be carried by the Russian people alone. These sanctions will create world wide trouble and potential misery. I don't think governments are being honest with their citizens about how these sanctions will hit them.
It’s possible we are now going to enter a dual world. Russia and China on one side and the West on the other. The dollars day as the world's reserve currency will be over. It could well be one in which the people’s of the West will have to live using much less energy than they do today.
I can see the rationale for rationing. We will be asked to do our duty to help out the world’s poorest folk. It will be carried out using our digital ID. Which I'm betting will prove to be a pain in the arse if it’s like any other technology! Rationing in war time, however, is sadly not new.