This is a compilation of commentary that I posted privately on Facebook with regards to 2020 mortality data in the United States. Basically, I was frustrated because the media always reports COVID numbers in a vacuum, and they focus on meaningless positive test results, instead of mortality - which is what really matters. So I spent a couple hours researching the mortality data to try to understand the overall context for the United States.
Since I already spent the time on it, I thought it might be of interest to a wider audience. Obviously, I have an opinion, but this is mostly just numbers, and could be useful for anyone.
Right-click on images and open in a new tab for a better view.
Here are the comments and images that I posted as I went through the research:
2020 is based on a projection, so this chart does NOT include COVID data. However, it is interesting. Points:
- US death rate was already projected to rise in 2020, even without COVID.
- The mortality rate was declining steadily from 1950 to 2008, when it leveled off and switched to up-trend in 2014.
- I'm not drawing any conclusions, but 2014 is also the year that Obamacare took full effect (also, the "baby boomers" aren't getting any younger.)
Source - https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate
Here's actual data, with COVID included, but I could only go back to 2013.
It does look to me that something unusual is happening in 2020, but it's important to keep it in context (which the media refuses to provide, for some strange reason).
Basically, it appears that the number of deaths to pneumonia, influenza and COVID is running at about double or triple the normal range, which is still a fairly small percentage of total deaths.
Source - https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S2
For additional context, here's a home-brewed "excess deaths" calculation, based on average from 2014 through 2019 (all complete years with data).
Note that the zero on the right-hand scale (percentage) is not the same as the zero on the left-hand scale (raw numbers).
Same source as above - https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S2
Just for fun, here's another graph with excess deaths calculated based on the average for each particular week from 2014 through 2019. Looked at this way, the early-2020 spike is far more alarming - with almost 50% of all deaths being "excess deaths", but there is also a clear downtrend visible throughout the remainder of 2020 such that the number of excess deaths is now approaching zero.
M2 doesn't mean anything. That's just an arbitrary label that I gave it.
Same source as above - https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S2
So the questions we're left with are:
- Does this level of excess deaths (some unknown number of which are "lockdown deaths" and not "pandemic deaths") justify destroying the economy and inflicting the human rights abuses that we're seeing throughout the country?
Of course, my answer is still, "no". And -
-
why does the media refuse to give us this kind of context in its breathless and hysterical reporting? With a functioning news media, I wouldn't have to spend 2 hours on a Sunday morning to sort this out.
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Steve Palmer is an IT professional with three decades of professional experience in data communications and information systems. He holds a bachelor's degree in mathematics, a master's degree in computer science, and a master's degree in information systems and technology management. He has been awarded 3 US patents.
One of the reasons for the increased deaths is the 88% fatality rate from putting covid patients on ventilators. Note that this is just NY, and I haven't found other resources: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-us-new-york-hospital-ventilator-death-rate-latest-a9479411.html
Minnesota State Sen. Scott Jensen, a family physician: I would remind him that anytime health care intersects with dollars it gets awkward. Right now Medicare has determined that if you have a COVID-19 admission to the hospital, you’ll get paid $13,000. If that COVID-19 patient goes on a ventilator, you get $39,000, three times as much. Nobody can tell me after 35 years in the world of medicine that sometimes those kinds of things impact on what we do. https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/hospital-payments-and-the-covid-19-death-count/
So, admitting someone with covid, AND putting them on a ventilator gives hospitals a little over $50k/patient! That's enough to turn a blind eye of what led to 88% fatality rate in NY.