Stellar Lumens XLM Is This Drop A Bear Trap Or Correction For New Rally ??? Watch Detailed Analysis
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Breaking down the support of the channel:
The price action of XLM is moving within an up-channel since after the mid of March 2020 and I am following this channel since then. The priceline of Stellar has broken down the support of this channel two times. At this time it can be clearly seen that the price action is out of the channel and has broken down the support before this the priceline of XLM broke down this support in the month of June 2020 but re-entered in channel very soon. I've also placed that directional movement indicator. And it can be observed that the -DI has crossed up the +DI that is the bearish signal. But the ADX of directional movement indicator is down it means that bears are taking control but they are still weak.
The 100 SMA can be used as support:
Now if we watch the movement of the price action with the combination of this channel and the simple moving averages then it can be noticed that previously in the month of June 2020 when the priceline broke down the support of this channel we had the recent support of 100 simple moving average below the price action. The priceline of Stellar used 100 simple moving average as support and re-entered in the channel again. At this time after breaking down the support we have again the 100 simple moving average as recent support below the priceline, therefore we can expect that the price action will be moved at least up to 100 simple moving average that is at $0.085 at the time of writing.
This re-test can lead to a powerful rally to upside or downside:
Now if we switched to the long-term weekly chart and place the 25, 50, and 100 simple moving averages. Then we can notice that from April to May 2020 the price action broke out the 25 and 50 simple moving averages and in June 2020 the priceline of XLM re-tested the previous simple moving averages with the time period of 25 and 50 as support and started the next rally to the upside. Now the price action has broken out the 100 simple moving average and this time it is retesting the 100 simple moving average as support as it has done before. Therefore this movement of Stellar is very important. Because if this retesting will be successful then XLM can start the next bullish rally to the upside. But if the price action will be failed to retest the 100 simple moving average as support then we can observe a further downside rally up to the 25 and 50 simple moving averages. These moving averages are almost at $0.06 at the time of writing.
The price action is rejected by the resistance:
Now if we watch the different support and resistance levels on the daily chart. Then it can be clearly seen that the priceline of Stellar has been rejected by the $0.11 resistance. After the rejection, the priceline broke down the 10 cents resistance level as well this time it was working as a support. At the moment the price action is at the support of $0.09. Now there are two possibilities one is the priceline may start the formation of a new parallel channel between the $0.09 to $0.10. Second If the $0.09 support won't be retained then the price action of XLM can further move to the downside at the support of $0.065.
This Big Harmonic Move Can Lead The Stellar To Achieve Highest Price Ever:
At the end, I would like to recall a very big BAT pattern that has been formed on the monthly chart by the priceline of Stellar. This is a kind of repetitive move as the price action of XLM formed BAT previously in the year of 2017 on the weekly chart and produced more than 4000% bullish rally. Same as that move the price action has again formed another bullish BAT. At this time the pattern is bigger than the previous one. Therefore we can expect more powerful bullish rally on the long-term. But realistically as per the Fibonacci sequence of bullish BAT the targets can be as below:
Potential reversal or buying zone: 0.110 to 0.059
Fibonacci projection or sell zone: 0.23 to 0.41
As the price action is retouching the 100 simple moving average in the long-term. It can be e a very positive gesture but on the other side, it can be very critical as well. Because if the price action will successfully retest the 100 SMA then definitely there will be a powerful bullish rally, but if the 100 simple moving average will be broken down then a powerful bearish to the downside can be started. Therefore it is very important to keep an eye on the movement of the price action above this moving average.
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