Why won't the unvaccinated admit that the COVID-19 vaccine saves lives?

ModRNA transfections do not have a durable enough time specific VE between doses to produce any significant absolute risk reduction as the model you are referencing likely assumes along with 95% VE claim that never held up outside the clinical trials or against any other variant aside from the wildtype. The Deeply Flawed Watson et al., model Suggesting the vaccine saved >14 million lives also excluded the unvaccinated (i.e. control group) from their estimate which would include most people in Africa for the years they are modelling.

Walsh Medical Media: Analysis of COVID19 Vaxx Effectiveness

I covered this in a similar question that was framed differently. The lowest COVID19 death toll was among low vaxxed African Countries.

The data on excess deaths and higher all cause mortality after multiple doses have been administered also suggests that this is not the case; the evidence of higher excess deaths in the first two years of it’s rollout, much higher than 2020 when the most virulent variant was circulating, is overwhelming at this point.

Excess Deaths in Southern Italy

A retrospective cohort study conducted in the Italian Province of Pescara (n = 290,727) that adjusted for the healthy adhere bias and immortal time bias by lengthening the follow up time to over a year and including each participant in each vaccinated cohort after each dose they received or didn’t receive at different time points found that recipients of the second dose of the primary series and the booster had a more than 20% higher risk of all cause death compared to the unvaccinated cohort.

Excess Deaths in Cyprus and the EU

A similar study conducted in Cyprus (n = 1.2 million) which relied on 6 years of data from the local Ministry of Health and Eurostat found that the highest cumulative excess deaths occurred in 2021-22 a trend that held even with the exclusion of COVID19 related deaths. They also found that deaths peaked in July 2021 two months after vaxx uptake peaked in May 2021 at 42%. Mortality peaked again between December 2021 and January 2022 while vaxx uptake had peaked again in December 2021 at 71%.

In the EU excess mortality peaked in November and December 2021 at 26.6% and 23.7% respectively before declining and peaking again in July and August 2022 at a 17% excess mortality rate which culminated in 58,000 additional deaths and again in December 2022 at an excess mortality rate of 20.4% compared to historic trends culminating in 83,000 additional deaths.

Excess Deaths in Norway

A population based cross sectional study drawing on data from the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry between January 2010 and December 2022 found that Norwegian citizens (n = 5 million) had a significant rise in age standardized mortality rates (ASMR) that did not occur until 2021-22. There were fewer deaths than predicted from comparable trends of the pre pandemic years (2010-2019) until October 2021 and excess cumulative mortality peaked in December 2022. Nearly half (47%) of all excess mortality was not COVID19 related with 45% of net cumulative excess deaths being caused be cardiovascular disease while cancer deaths comprised 3.5% of excess non-covid19 mortality.

Excess Deaths in King County, WA

An exploratory data analysis of cardiopulmonary arrest deaths in King County Washington (n = 2.27 million) obtained from the King County Emergency Medical Services annual reports for the years 2016 through 2023, revealed that cardiopulmonary arrest deaths steadily increased at a rate of 24.6% between 2015 and 2020 and sharpley jumped 25.4% between 2021-23 alone. Cumulative excess cardiopulmonary deaths rose from 11 excess deaths in 2020 to 111 excess deaths in 2022 and a projected 147 excess deaths in 2023. The data showed a sharp acceleration in the increase in excess deaths as the vaccination rate climbed from 67% in 2021 to 98% in 2023.

UK Excess Deaths in 2022

The UK suffered 4,000 excess deaths in 2022 after >90% of the adult population had been vaxxed in the previous year.

Temporary Morgues Being Opened Across UK to Deal With Surge in Deaths

UK Excess Deaths Among 12-29 year Olds

Using ONS data in 12 weeks following both doses of the primary series and the booster, Professor Aarstad, who published in EXCLI Journal found that recipients in this age range had a significantly increased risk of dying in 10 of 11 weeks compared to week one after vaccination. In weeks four, six and nine after their last dose they had at least a double risk of dying compared to week one. He found an uptick in the risk of dying in weeks 13 and 14 as well.

Australia Excess Deaths in 2022

Twice as many Australians died in 2022 with COVID than in the previous two pandemic years combined.

Canada also had more COVID19 deaths in 2022 compared to 2021 despite the proliferation of several fold less virulent omicron sub-variants. In 2022, deaths attributed to COVID19 increased 36.6% from the prior year, from 14,466 to 19,716, including the proportion of deaths among senior citizens (91.4%), despite achieving a vaccination rate of >80% in 2021. Life expectancy also fell for the third consecutive year.

Last year, Carlos Alegria, a data scientist with Phinance Technologies, conducted a retrospective cohort study of excessive deaths among people between the ages of 15-44 in England and Wales and found that while excess deaths, as in all registered deaths, only increased about 15% in 2021 and 10% in 2022, from the expected baseline, excess deaths due to malignant neoplasms increased 6.7% in 2021 and 33.3% in 2022. For perspective, excess deaths only increased 5% in 2020, when the pandemic began, while deaths due to malignant neoplasms actually fell 6.7% the same year. Per capita, deaths from malignant neoplasms rose from a decade low of 12.5 per 100K in 2020 to 14 per 100K in 2021 and 17.5 per 100K in 2022. In the prior decade, this rate had fallen 14.7% from 15 per 100K in 2010 to 12.8 per 100K in 2019. In absolute numbers there are 1,000 more deaths from malignant neoplasms from a 2015-2019 average of 3,000 deaths to 3,200 in 2021 and 4,000 in 2022. In 2020, absolute deaths from malignant neoplasms fell to 2,800 for the same age cohort. While excess deaths followed a similar trajectory from 2019-2021, rising from 67 per 100K to 69 per 100K between 2019-2020 to 75 per 100K in 2021, they declined to 71 per 100K in 2022; However, at the time of this study annualized excess mortality for 2023 had risen 20%. Almost a third of registered deaths in this age range did not have a cause of death so the deaths from cancer could likely be even higher. Excess disability claims by people in this age cohort also rose 39.4% between 2021 and 2022 from the 5 year average. This is not the only one to find a substantial increase in excess deaths after 2020.

Thailand recorded 80 deaths from 24,400 confirmed COVID infections (CFR = 0.327) 11 months after their first confirmed COVID case on Jan 8, 2020. 11 months after their vaccination rollout on Feb 14, 2021, Thailand recorded 20,445 deaths from 2.253 million confirmed cases (CFR = 0.9)

Similarly, the Philippines had a 1% drop in excess deaths the year the pandemic began and a 43.2% surge in excess deaths the year of the vaccine rollout. Registered deaths surged from 613,936 in 2020 to 879,429 in 2021.

COVID19 only accounted for 12.8% of total deaths in 2021. Ischaemic heart diseases were the leading cause of death constituting nearly 18% of total deaths.

Ischaemic heart diseases were also the leading cause of death in 2022 constituting 18.3% of deaths in the country while COVID19 deaths constituted less than 3% of total deaths.

A regression analysis of Eurostat all cause mortality data for 31 countries, weighted by population size, in the first 9 months of 2022 and vaccine uptake data from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control for the previous year, published in the Asian Pacific Journal of Health Sciences, found that a 1% increase in vaccine uptake in 2021 is associated with a 0.105% increase in monthly all cause mortality in the first 9 months of 2022: a borderline statistically significant result. All cause mortality increases were found to be highest in nations with the highest 2021 vaccination rates and relatively lower or even negative, indicating a decline in all cause mortality, in nations with lower 2021 vaccination rates. This was found after controlling for average all cause mortality in 2020-2021 divided by average all cause mortality between 2016-2019 to eliminate the bounce back effect that may have occurred. These 5 regression models also included nation level median age and 2019 per capita GDP to adjust for differential rates of all cause mortality due to a higher proportion of senior citizen population and impoverished populations.

Korea Excess Deaths 2020 - 2022

Using an age-adjusted linear regression model and age specific mortality rates between 2015–19 as their reference years for expected deaths, Lee and colleagues found that excess deaths slightly rose 0.3% in 2020 and 4% in 2021 but dramatically rose to 20.7% in 2022.

The highest number of excess deaths were due to endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases which rose 83.3% in 2022 with abnormal clinical and lab findings not elsewhere classified being a distance second (41.5%). The authors attribute the sharp increase in excess due to the former to declines in healthy living during the pandemic that caused unhealthy dietary habits, sleep disturbances and mental stress leading to higher rates of obesity, diabetes and heart disease. Excess deaths in 2020–21 were highest among Koreans in their 20s due to self-harm and suicide which was responsible for 231 excess deaths in 2020, 371 excess deaths in 2021; only 77 died from COVID-19 between 2020–22. There were only 900 COVID-19 deaths in the Republic of Korea in 2020. After the Vaxx roll out COVID-19 deaths increased over 5x to 4,663 by the end of 2021 and almost 30x to 26,593 in 2022.

Another prospective study of excess deaths in Korea, that used January 2013 to January 2020 as reference years found that excess age standardized mortality was 8.7% between March 2020 and June 2022; however, age standardized mortality peaked in 2022 at 24.4% compared to slight increases in 2020 (2.1%) and 2021 (6%).

Monthly age-standardized mortality followed historical trends until the third quarter of 2021.

Japan Excess Deaths 2020-22

A descriptive analysis of national health statistics, published in the Journal of Epidemiology, found that age standardized mortality rates increased 6% for men and 6.5% for women in 2022: the year after the vaxx rollout and 82% of the population receiving at least the primary series. Between 2020 and 2021, COVID-19 age standardized mortality rates increased 29.1 per 100K among men and 13.4 per 100K among women.