What height will BTC reach in June?

Bitcoin's very exponential growth in 2021

On the chart, you can see to what extent it reflects the actual process. Regularly updated charts can be found here:

 https://www.pisu666.de [2]

To illustrate that this formula also applies to the Bitcoin 2016/17 process, here are the specific formulas during this period:

USD / BTC≈510 * e ^ (0.81t + 0.7t³)

r = 0.97   [from 9,5.2016 to 30.12.2017]

It can be seen that the initial half growth in 2020 is the same as the half growth in 2016.  The only difference is that the growth factor in 2017 is much smaller, so the growth is much more stable than in 2021  .

Bitcoin Super Exponential Growth Stage 2017

To verify the formula, we can take a specific point in time just one year after the halving:

2017/07/09: USD / BTC≈510 * e ^ 1.51≈ $ 2,309

with

2021/05/11: USD / BTC≈9100 * e ^ 2.71≈ $ 136,766

You can easily check the first value. It cost US $ 2,573 at the time, and US $ 2,333 three days later. Over a long period of time, this accuracy was very good  . We will have to wait for the second mark in 2021, but I am very confident to achieve this goal. If this value is reached, it should not be dismissed as a coincidence. 

Explanation

First of all, it's important to realize that the Bitcoin price will not go up because people or companies are pushing or even manipulating Bitcoin.

Likewise, the current economic situation has no effect on value. No,  price only follows intrinsic value, and PlanB [3] explains Bitcoin's Stock-To-Flow theory very well  . Almost all the stories you read about the reasons for Bitcoin's price increase belong to the same story book. Otherwise, we can't just plug the values ​​into the formula. I think this may always be overlooked. The price of Bitcoin is the result of a stable economic balance [4]. Any instantaneous drift between this value and this equilibrium will immediately return to its true intrinsic value. The example of TESLA entering the $ 1.5 billion Bitcoin market illustrates this point well. To be precise, on February 8, 2021, after purchasing this amount, its value had increased by about 20%. However, the  value will return to the value calculated in 20 days  (see 2021 chart). The same is true of any other major purchase or sale. This value can only be unbalanced for a short time, and then come back reliably each time. This balance will change over time, and the passage of time after the halving is explained by my formula.

I think the halving will have three effects on growth:

1. Continue to consume Bitcoin → BTC is used all over the industry

2. Insufficient inventory → the higher the price, the less sales.

3. Increase in demand → the higher the price, the more purchases.

1 represents initial growth, 2 and 3 together represent growth in the development process. This is what the formula reveals.

This policy will have to take a long time to be accepted by all economists. But the Stock-To-Flow theory has started, and it is increasingly being accepted by people.

forecast

Using this formula, the future value can be calculated easily.

If you count the first day of each following month, the result is:

2021/4/1: BTC / USD $ 72,816

2021/5/1: BTC / USD $ 117,265

June 1, 2021: BTC / USD≈ $ 207,671 

At the start of July, the calculated value was $ 392,340. Of course, this figure was too high to achieve, so the devastation in June was almost inevitable. Maybe even before May. According to the PlanB formula, the internal Stock to Flow value in June is about $ 85,000. (I use a formula to predict the lowest score). In 2017, the value of Bitcoin was three times the value of Stock to Flow (20,000 USD, BTC (SF) = 6,500 USD). If this time there was a similar exaggeration effect, the maximum value would be 3x $ 85,000 = $ 255,000. However, this is only a rough indication,  as it is practically impossible to determine the exact date of the accident . The likelihood of a crash increases as the Bitcoin price increases. The accident was the result of a chain reaction, when the first Bitcoin whale sold its Bitcoin and the price fell accordingly. Then, the excitement suddenly turned into panic.

But what happened after the accident? Fortunately, the Bitcoin value trend in 2018 provides the answer. The price will most likely fall the most to the Stock to Flow value,  so it will end up above $ 85,000  . In addition, because many people still believe that prices will continue to rise, they will fluctuate greatly over a period of time. After all, the value of Bitcoin must follow the value of Stock to Flow, otherwise the theory will become invalid. But since the inception of the Bitcoin market in 2010, it has been a trend enough to argue with.

To conclude

While it may be hard to believe, there is actually a Bitcoin formula for long-term growth (S2F theory) and a formula for short-term super-exponential growth after the halving  . You can now actually track how Bitcoin's value fits into this formula. So everyone should really know that this formula makes sense. Now, each investor can draw his own conclusions. Sell ​​the bitcoin at the most expensive price, or wait for a further cycle to profit again from the increase after halving in 4 years. If Bitcoin's popularity continues to increase until then, then after the next half, another strong growth is likely.

As always, please pay attention to the following:

This is only my personal opinion and should never be taken as investment advice. The predictions made here are purely subjective and do not have to be true in any way.