Cyrpto Academy /Season 3/ Week 1 —Homework Post for Professor @wahyunahrul | Whales: The Driver of Cryptocurrency Value

in SteemitCryptoAcademy3 years ago (edited)

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It is a privilege to be part of steemit Crypto Academy. I am not taking it for granted. I have been anticipating to join crypto purposely because of my interest in learning crypto trading. When I heard that season three of the lecture will begin, I was excited, but at the same time, I felt that if my steem power is enough I could have grabbed the opportunity to learn. What actually took me so long to submit my assignment was that I just powered up my steem to meet the required steem power for the beginner class. I must let you know that I'm extremely happy to be in this class. Professor @wahyunahrul has done a very great job to the topic, "Whales – The Driver of Cryptocurrency Value." He dealt well with the topic, and I must commend his efforts. He's a great teacher that taught in a very simple way. With what I have understood, I will share some important things about the topic with you. Please, continue to read through.


WHY WHALES ARE SO FEARED BY SMALL INVESTORS?

The question why whales are so feared by small investors can not be actually answered very well without knowing who whales are.
As such, I am going to let you know who whales are, what they do and how you can identify them.
Whales are big investors of crypto currency who have power to drag the market either upward or downward. Whales are strengthened because they have accumulated enough assets which in this case are considered as coins, and they are capable of deciding the price of Cryptocurrency at a particular period of time. They are the ones who determine whether the price of a cryptocurrency will rise or fall.
Whales can not be easily identified because they don't what people to know who they are. Neither do they want them to know the amount of Cryptocurrency they have. However, some whales are actually known.
That being said, let me quickly discuss why whales are so feared by small investors.
Like I said above, whales are people who have dominance in Cryptocurrency, those who have large numbers of Cryptocurrency.

Small investors fear whales because they are the driver of price.
A passenger who boards a car has no control over where the car will go. It is the person who holds the steering. The only thing passenger can say is that, we are interested in going to so so place, but if the driver is not ready to go, nothing moves. In essence, until the driver is ready to go, no one can move. This scenario can be liken to whales and small investors. Small investors are like passengers who want to follow Whales, the drivers. Whales are drivers. They are the ones who have access to the steering. Until they decide when and where to go, nothing moves. Small investors fear whales because they can decide not to take small investors on their journey. Whales are the owner of car, they are the driver and they may decide not to offer small investors seat if they like.

Whales are feared by small investors because whales can manipulate Market.
The person who has higher power when performing magic is always feared. Such are whales. They have power to perform 'magic'. They can manipulate market. They know that small investors may be thinking of going with them on a journey. Actually if the journey they want to go is from A to B. Whales may first start from A and go to C and then go to C. In essence, if whales want to go bearish, they may firstly go bullish a little before going to the initial place, bearish which they have in mind. We all know that their cunning action downward may have made small investors go with them downward or bearish and because small investors are limited in capital, they may not be able to go bearish with them. Therefore they have manipulated small investors.

Small Investors Fear Whales because the whales perform very quick in the market.
Whales never notify anyone or small investors before they drive the value of Cryptocurrency in market. They can move the price as high or low as the want and at any time they want.
So, small investors fear them because if whales come in, their performance is always quick and their movement is not known.

Small Investors Fear Whales because they are actually in draw down when whales sells large amount of Cryptocurrency.
Small Investors may be very happy when the price of Cryptocurrency rises. This is because everyone who invest wants profit. As such, when the price increases, they make profit. But when whales sell large account of Cryptocurrency, the price of will decline greatly turning market to bearish and as a result of this, small Investors are in very great draw down. In other words, they are in loss.


WILL WE BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGES OF THE WHALE WHICH IS SO FEARED?

There are many ways small Investors can take advantages of the existence of the whale. As a matter of fact, if there are not whales in the market, there is no way Investors can make more profit. We, small Investors can leverage on whales to actually profit in cryptocurrency. But we must understand some things. We must know how whales think, how they react to market and when and where they want to go. If they want to drive the price of the market up, we invest more by buying more cryptocurrency at the current price of the market. Since we know that market will go bullish, we will buy as many as possible. Because if the whales move the price up, we are definitely going to make profit. On the other hand, if the whales will sell large amount of cryptocurrency, before they move price downward, we would have sold ours.

One of the things we can do to take advantage of the whale is to know how to predict when they will move. If they will move the price upward, we will position ourselves. Then what can we do to know when they are likely going to move? One of the things we can do is to study graph. Graphs show the past and present intentions of the whales, and by studying the past and present, we predict the future. So I'm essence, graphs help us to study the next move of the whales. It helps us to know exact timing when the whales will commence action. Not only that, it help us know where they are likely going, whether they are going bullish or bearish.

yfFto202.png

SOURCE

The image above is an example of a cryptocurrency. For a person who has studied the intentions of whales, he would have position himself. A trader who knows this would have bought the low A to high B. Low A is a demand zone. Note: The bearish candle is a black candle and the bullish candle is a white candle.


WHALE'S CYCLE SHOWING A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF HE PHASES IN THE CRYPTOCURRENCY CHART

AAVEUSDT has been in a bearish move.
After a decline in price, the market may likely pause either to continue the trend or reverse.
When a market that's has been on bearish pauses or enters a point of indecision between a seller or buyer, the market may retrace to some percentages of the whole initial move to continue its downward or bearish move. Some traders call the retracement redistribution, since it hasn't reversed for a bullish move.
In the same way, if a bullish market retraces before it continues it's bullish move, some traders call it reaccumullation. That's being said.

But what I'm showing on this chart of AVEEUSDT is the whales phase.
The whole phases is shown on the picture below.

20210702-041419.png

THE ACCUMULATION PHASE.
Accumulation phase is the first phase or starting phase of the whale's phase. In this phase, both the sellers and buyers are playing.
20210702-041601.png

Sellers drag market downward, and buyers too drag price upward. There is no great momentum to either upward or downward. In essence, accumulation phase is phase where buyers and sellers are struggling for the dragging of price where buyers develop enough capacity or strength to move the price upward with a very great momentum. In this case, the whales get in, and move the price upward, since they are the driver of value or price.

THE UPTREND PHASE
The phase is also known as absorption phase. It is the phase that occurs immediately after accumulation.
20210702-041828.png
This phase signifies a very great rise or increase in price in the market. At this phase, small investors are in big profit. Because there would have been increase in price and as such they make gains. Traders who take advantage by knowing that the market in accumulation and position himself will catch the move and trade along the whales, the mover of price.

THE DISTRIBUTION PHASE
The next phase after absorption is distribution phase. It is known that after a great move of price to either upward or downward, market should either correct itself or reverse to begin a new trend.
20210702-041703.png
So in this case, AAVEUSDT has moved greatly upward. And market needed to pause and change the trend, but before it changed the trend, market must distribute. In this phase, buyers have lost or are weakened in strength and sellers need to get in right in the market. Buyers have bought at very low price, right from accumulation phase and have now gotten to the climax of the price where sellers needed to sell for a high profit.
So this phase, buyers and sellers interact for so long before the sellers over powered them and then drive the price downward.

THE DOWNTREND PHASE
The phase is characterize by sellers who decided to sell large amount of cryptocurrency. The sellers here are called bears. It is the phase that actually takes place after distribution phase. The whales which are sellers or bears here pump large amount of cryptocurrency to the market to drive the price as low as possible.
20210702-041948.png
At this phase the whales would have sold the cryptocurrency and the price would have moved significantly downward before the small investors would realize that the price has actually fallen.


WHAT CRYPTOCURRENCY (EXCEPT THOSE THAT ARE IN THE TOP 10) WOULD I CHOOSE TO TRADE IF AM A WHALE?

If am a whale, the best Cryptocurrency I would invest on are those which are very close to top 10 in ranking and that their price is at very low rate.
To this effect, I would like to invest on Stellar, XLM.
As at the time of writing this, XLM is ranked 18. See the screenshot below.

20210702-100413.png

SOURCE


The fact that XLM is ranked 18 means it very close to cryptocurrencies which people are investing on. As we all know that if a cryptocurrency shows some significant sign of popular, people will invest on it no matter how long it takes before it comes to limelight and being accepted by populace.
Though, XLM is popular to some extent, the major reason I would choose it is because, the price as at now is very low compared to other cryptocurrency between 11 and 20. The price of XLM is $0.2599
Actually if I am permitted to invest on the top 10, I would loved to invest on Dogecoin, DOGE because the price is very low and the coin is popular and ranked among 10 popular.

20210702-103757.png
SOURCE

It should be noted that if I invest on a cryptocurrency which its price is low, I would be able to buy as more as possible at a very low price.
Those who bought Btcoin when the price of 1 btcoin is very low, have accumulated wealth now. For example, Tim Draper bought at very low price.

He bought about 42,000 BTC which was then valued at six dollars.


ANALYSIS OF KSMUSDT USING WHALE PHASES

As we already discussed above, the whales' cycle has four pahases. Accumulation, uptrend, distribution and downtrend.
bhaDocKW.png

As a whale, the best place to start buying is at the last point of demand zone. The blue rectangular represents a demand zone. It is demand zone because anytime the price got to the zone it pushed the market up.
And at the area of our support or demand zone, price started accumulating which is a sign that our demand zone will still hold.
The screenshot below shows the accumulation phase.

20210702-105912.png
So in essence, as a whale, I will start buying at that that demand zone. At the price of 198.05
20210702-105942.png

Demand zone are used to take buy order or where the pending order, say buy limit is activated. And the best place to use for taking profit is nearest supply zone.
Supply zone in the first screenshot is a an area with red colored rectangular box.
See the picture again here
bhaDocKW.png
So basically, the profit target will be Ara where distribution occurred. See the screenshot below for the distribution phase

20210702-110031.png
So at the price of 203.85, I will take profit.


CONCLUSION

Whales are basically the mover or driver of price. They decide the direction in which market goes.
The Whales's cycle which has four phases —accumulation, uptrend, distribution, and downtrend— are very important as it helps us know when to enter the market and when to exit.
Although it not always easy to predict the intentions of whales, but small investors can learn some indicators (e.g By studying graphs) which will help us know when exactly the whales will move price, where they want to move it to and how long they will move it.

Thanks to professor @wahyunahrul. I'm very grateful. He did a very great job.

CC : @wahyunahrul



Written by @msquaretk

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