Crypto Academy Season 3 Week 8 [Homework Post for @pelon53] Predictive markets with blockchain technology
1 Create 5 questions that can be used in the Predictive Market. And explain what 2 of them consist of. Be creative and explain in detail.
This is the first time we're doing a question like this in the CryptoAcademy
Q1 Will PSG be finally winning the Champions League 2021 starting from 14th September after the signing of Messi and Sergio Ramos
Answer
I guess this is the hottest topic in the world right now. We all know how PSG has suffered in the Champions League from past years. PSG was eliminated in Champions League 2015 on a aggregate of 5-1 by Barcelona in the Qurater Finals
In 2016 PSG seemed a rather promising team but still they were eliminated by Manchester with a aggregate of 3-2
Move forward to 2020, PSG still wasn't able to win the Champions League in all these years. But now I must say the tides might be changing. We all know know two Super Giants Sergio Ramos and none other then Lionel Messi have joined the Paris Franchise.
Before moving to the the probability of PSG winning the Champions League let me show you what affect did messi joining PSG have on the PSG Fan Token
That is such a huge hike which was from the joining of only a single player.
Now, the PSG lineup with Donnaruma at the goal, Ramos at defence, Messi and Mbappe in attack, i think there's no one stopping them from going for the Champions League 2021-2022
Options
- YES | vote cost $0.90
Keeping an eye on the PSG's Champions League campaign this year, people who choose the Yes option will win it if PSG goes on and Win the Champions League.
- NO | vote $0.50
Some people think that PSG still doesn't have what it takes to win a UEFA Champions League.
Being a Football fan from a very young age, some people might still disagree with me but I think The Messi affect on any team is HUGE. Be it Barcelona, Argentina or PSG. So I'd go with the Yes option that is $0.90**
Q2 Will ADA hit the $4 mark till 1st November 2021 after their Alonzo smart contract release?
Explanation
Cardano hiked it's all time high price with a 20% rise in the last 48 hours reaching as high as $2.57. It has a huge Market Capitalization of $80 Billion
It currently stands on the third position in the Crypto Market beating Binance Coin to the spot.
After the news of the new Alonzo Smart Contract Release Investors gushed in the ADA market and the price hiked up. The highest point of ADA before $2.57 was $2.47 which we observed in May 2021.
The contract is set to release on 12th September which would make Cardano more better as it will be able include more applications such as DeFi platforms which have the automated lending and trading setups. By doing so Cardano will be in a position of competing with Ethereum which is a huge step.
With all these updates I believe that the prices of the Cardano will not look back. There might be few retracements as we saw one today, but in a long-term run, the Alonzo update would increase ADAs prices significantly.
Options
- YES | vote $0.75
The price of ADA will reach the $4 mark by 1st November 2021 after their smart contract release.
- NO | vote $0.45
The price of ADA will not hit the $4 mark till November 1st 2021.
I'd go with option A that is ADA will hit the $4 mark till 1st November 2021
Q 3 Will Ronaldo be Joining Manchester united in the winter market January 2021?
Options
- YES - vote $0.10
- NO - vote $0.50
Q4: Will the value of steem reach $1 by 1st September 2021?
Options
- YES - vote $0.20
- NO - vote $0.75
Q5: Will Bitcoin reach the $80,000 mark by the start of 1st January 2022?
Options
- YES | vote $0.50
- NO | vote $0.60
2.- Explore Polymarket, answer and explain the first 2 questions in the Crypto category. Show screenshot.
Polymarket is a decentralized application which runs on the Ethereum Network where traders from all over the world can bet their funds on different cliche such as crypto, sports, finances, Art etc.
- I will signup on this platform to be able to use it as shown in the picture above. Write down your email and after confirmation you'll be able to use it.
- after that I'll demonstrate the Deposit option and various ways of depositing in this market.
- We can deposit USDC and Ether.
- There are alternative deposit methods such as the P2P polygon Metamask annd Credit or debit card.
- You can withdraw funds as well by clicking on the Withdraw button as shown in the Screenshot below
- Now the Interesting Market Survey. Click on the Market button as shown below
- You can search for your topic of interest in the Category option by clicking it
There are various available options here such as Crypto, Art, Sports etc
- I chose the Sports as I am a sports freak and do not miss anything related to sports especially football.
- I chose one of the available bets which is regarding Messi whether he'll score on his PSG debut or not and got details about the bet. The trade volume of this bet us $1,183 and Liquidity $3,957. There are buy and sell options in the bet with the amount of USDC you want to bet with.
- You can also add liquidity by the Add liquidity option below the buy option
- Now you can also sort the bets as Volume, Liquidity, Newest and Expiring.
- The Show Resolved option will let you have a look at betting issues and details regarding them
- Now exploring the Portfolio in polymarket where you can see the positions which you can sort gy Value, Market, Quantity etc.
- In the Liquidity section you can see the Liquidity that you have placed
Top 2 questions in the Crypto Category
The first question involves Cardano and the second SuperRare token
Will Cardano support smart contracts on Mainnet by October 1st, 2021?
An investor can Buy, sell and earn by providing liquidity in this bet. The closing time of this bet is October 1st 2021
Trade volume: $666,660
Liquidity: $12,908
Yes: $0.82
No: $0.18
Explanation
Cardano currently stands on the 3rd position in the Cryptomarket and we have seen many development projects of the Cardano Blockchain which has increased the price of ADA.
Recently we saw an official news regarding a new smart contract release on the Cardano Blockchain
The new smart contract goes by the name of Alonzo bringing the smart contract to Cardano via a Hardfork combinator event. A date was given but an exact date is still not updated however it will be soon and it will bring Cardano Blockchain to a new era.
The new smart contracts will empower the Cardano community and I prefer the Cardano network will support smart contract on mainnet. if there is any sort of dispute or discourse
What will the fully diluted market cap of SuperRare’s token be 1 week after it starts trading?
(Range: $250M - $3.00B)
An investor can Buy, sell and earn by providing liquidity in this bet. The closing time of this bet is December 31st 2021
Trade volume: $34,593
Liquidity: $6,332
Long: $0.33
Short: $0.67
Explanation
SuperRare is a NFT which is based in thr Ethereum Blockchain. SuperRare has its own native token which is called $RARE. It's current price is $1.199
The market cap of SupraRare is $122.058 Million and with a circulating supply of $101.756 Billion
Even though NFTs like the $RARE have good growth potential in the crypto world but I still believe there's alot more for them to achieve.
I would go with the No option as I believe that the SupraRare will have a good position in the market but not so soon. Most of the predictions are also NO which infers that the market cap will be below $1.08 Billion
3.- Explain in detail a Predictive Market project, it cannot be Augur, Gnosis or those explained in class.
In this question I'll be exploring and explaining one of the best Predictive markets which is Omen.eth
It was released in 2020 and it runs on the Ethereum Blockchain.
- it also has the Markets option with categories as well. You can have the market of your interest by choosing it from the menu.
- in the Categories section there are different options that you can choose such as Crypto, Politics, sports Etc
- we can sort by The Open option where Pending, Finalizing, Arbitrating and closed are available.
- we can also choose currencies. Options available are DAI WETH WBTC.
- you can also filter with the volume levels. Here you can choose Highest Liquidity, 24Hr volume, Total volume etc
To have an indepth review of the platform, lets have a survey of any topic in the platform.
This bet in the sports category talks on the highest selling price for an NBA Top Shot Moment in 2021.
It has a limit limit till the end of the NBA season that is 01/03/2022. It already has a liquidity of 126.02 DAI with more than 60% betters voting that the highest selling price would be less that $1,000,000.01 and 39% betters voting that the price would be above $1,000,000.01
Theres also the comment section where you can leave your thoughts in the comments.
We can also create a voting topic on this platfirm by the Create Option available.
- Now I will create a topic in which I added a question in the sports category. I added a Yes and No option with a probability of 60% and 40%
I set the closing date to 31 August 2021. The closing date should be atleast 6 days from the date you're creating your bet on. The Arbitrator of this bet would he Kleros and DXdao. After that I clicked continue
- when I clicked it asked me to Connect Wallet
- I clicked on it and chose Metamask
After that I connected my metamask wallet
To create a bet there was a transaction fee, as I did not have funds to do so, I couldn't carry forward.
The wallet was connected though.
For you, what will happen to Predictive Markets with blockchain technology? Who will benefit from them?
This lecture has been a great experience for me as I didn't know anything about Predictive markets before it. I believe that Predictive Market has a lot of potential and many people still do not know about it so that is why it is not so famous and trending.
Predictive Markets give you amazing oppurtunities with asking questions which are connected to the real world as well. Predictive markets and gambling have many things in common but still we don't see these Decentralized Predictive Markets trending like the Gambling Markets
I believe if more and more traders get involved in Predictive Markets, it will bring these Decentralized markets in trend and many people will get to know about these markets and many people will take advantage from it. As we know there are lots of categories on predictive markets which creates diversification and people can bet in their area of interest.
Some of the Predictive Markets such as the Augur have grown significantly but others still have the ability and potential to be at their very best. Also we know that the Decentralized platform are transparent and there will be very minimal chances of frauds in these markets so people can actually benefit from them
A very interesting lecture for me. I will be now taking more and more interest in the Predictive markets due to this lecture and my research for the assignment post.
There are many good predictive markets which give traders oppurtunities to have good profits. So I believe Decentralized Predictive markets have a huge growth potential and they'll increase in the upcoming times.
This has been a wonderful lecture professor @pelon53
Hope you have a good read as well.
Regards,
@huzaifanaveed1
