Steemit Crypto Academy, Season 3: Week 8 || Predictive Markets with blockchain technology, Homework post for Professor @pelon53
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Question 1. Create 5 questions that can be used in the Predictive Market. And explain what 2 of them consist of. Be creative and explain in detail.
Here are my 5 questions which can be used in a Predictive Market.
Will Cardona (ADA) price reach $10 by the end of 2021.
Will Dogecoin reach $1 by 2020.?
Will PSG win the champion league this Season 2021/2022.?
Will Every body in the world will be vaccinated with the Covid 19 vaccine by December 2022.?
Will Cameroon be an emergence country by 2035.?
Blockchain technology will take over the central system by December 2030. ?
1. Will Cardona (ADA) price reach $10 by the end of 2021.
Explanation.
ADA built on the Cardona Blockchain is a unique coin. This crypto currency has had tremendous growth over the past years. It is for the reason that the coin ranked number 3 on CoinGecko as of the time of writing this post. This is a wonderful growth looking at the fact that the coin was launched in 2017 by co-founder of Ethereum Charles Hoskinson. He left Ethereum after a dispute with its key developer Vitalik Buterin.
Unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, Cardona Blockchain doesn't have a white paper and does not operate the proof of work. It uses the proof of stake which is less expensive to run and consumes less energy. However the coin experience a low in the month of May 2021 with every other currency.
Ever since it's has been on the rise, the coin has risen over 40% in the past 2 months with price reaching to $2. The Cardona Blockchain has been working on a couple of functionalities like native assets and smart contracts.
Why I think this is going go be possible.
- The current market position, Marketcap and volume of trade are at the top of my reasons why I predict that prices will reach $10 this year. As of the time of this post, ADA is ranked #3 on CoinGecko, it has a market capitalization of $64,933,601,023, trading volume of $3,407,488,474. These are great prospects of growth.
- Recent innovation. Cardona Blockchain has had some pretty great innovation this year. The Mary Hardfork on February this year saw users creat custom native assets and non Fungible Token. The NFT is a huge platform for future growth in the crypto space.
Also, there are prospect of the Alonzo Hardfork that will bring smart contracts and introduce the DApp system. The above explanation is why I think ADA will reach $10, because such innovations bring in new investors and speculators.
However, there are also two probability in a Predictive market. Yes to the fact that it might reach $10 and No that it wouldn't reach $10.
2. Will Dogecoin reach $1 by 2021.
Explanation.
One of the biggest and most popular predictions in the financial and information market now is the growth of Dogecoin. It is the most asked questions in the Crypto space now, every body trying to predict the price of Dogecoin by the end of this year 2021 and with the developers trying so hard to make it reach the $1 mark.
Dogecoin was developed by Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer in 2013. The coin has had tremendous growth and progress since it was launched, with the briefly surpassing Bitcoin in trading volume in January 2014. The rise in the price of Dogecoin to over 800% within this year 2021 was promoted by the founder of Tesla and Space X Elon musk and Snoop Dogg who took to Twitter to tweet about the coin .
The adoption of the coin as a means of payment by the owner of Dallas Mavericks Mark Cuban has encourage the rise of this coin in recent years.
Reason why I predict the coin might reach $1 by December 2021.
At the time of this post, Dogecoin is ranked #7 on CoinGecko official website, the price is $0.299696, market capitalization of $39,148,221,115, and a trading volume of over $4,318,417,515.
Although it is in a downtrend and price is falling, these figures are promising for the future of the coin.Dogecoin is one of the coins in the Crypto space that's has gain alot of interest and influence from social Media and influential persons. Frequent tweets from persons like Elon musk, Snoop Dogg, and adoption of the coin as as a medium of Payment of tickets by the Dallas Mavericks are very influential aspects on the price of the coin. Elon musk even tweeting and suggesting a interoperation between Dogecoin and Ethereum. Charles Hoskinson, who co-founder Ethereum and is now founder of Cardona Blockchain ADA, has also had pretty things to say about the coin.
Speculators have shown great interest in the coin and I think it might reach its $1 mark.
However,these are just predictions per say and like every other prediction, there is probability that it might come true or it might not.
Question 2. Explore Polymarket, answer and explain the first 2 questions in the Crypto category. Show screenshot.
Polymarket is a Predictive market. To successfully explore the polymarket, we will visit the official polymarket website. The landing page requires that we sign up if we are not yet signed up or have n account in polymarket.
I inputed my email address and click on Sign up, a confirmation email was sent to me which I confirmed.
After which I returned back to the official page, created my username and log in code.
When I signed into the Platform these are the first two questions I saw.
- Will Cardona support smart contracts on Mainnet by October 1st 2021.
My answer to this question will be Yes.
Why.
As can be seen from one of my questions I asked above if Cardona will reach $10 by December 2021, Cardona is a very impressive Blockchain with amazing prospects of growth.
Just about a week ago, the developer/founder of Cardona had a live video on Twitter to give a brief about the future of Cardona Blockchain. In this video, he announced the launched of the Alonzo Hardfork.
Project Alonzo named after a great mathematician Alonzo Church is slated to be fully functional on the 12 of September 2021. The Alonzo Hardfork will see the Cardona Blockchain supporting Smart contracts which will allow for decentralized application to be fully functional and run on the network.
Nels Hemsley, Head of delivery at cardona Blockchain had this to say about the Alonzo Hardfork in a video.
“It’s looking good. We’re rapidly moving towards our hard fork on the mainnet, and this is what it’s all about, this is crunch time… we’re all working to make sure all our components are updated ready for this hard fork.”
So, in answering the question, and given all the facts, I am going to bet it will be a YES.
As can be seen on the graph above, most people are betting that Cardona will support Smart contracts by October 1 2021. The green line above is an indication of Yes bets.
- Will the US have more than 200,000 new daily COVID-19 cases on or before October 1, 2021.
My answer to this question will be a No.
Why
I strongly believe that new COVID 19 cases will not reach 200,000 cases by October 1, 2021.
With the appearance of new variant of COVID 19, new cases of COVID 19 are being discovered everyday. Even those who have vaccinated are being infected with the new COVID 19 recently. This has increase the fear of an increase in the number of cases.
However, scientist and the US government are strongly behind this. The campaign for vaccination are increasing day by day as regulations are being put in place to encourage vaccination.
Also, the white house has announced the presence of booster vaccines that will help in reducing the spread of the virus. This is a big reason why I believe that the cases will not reach 200,000 by October 2021.
Above is a tweet from CNN news announcing the presence of booster vaccines.
The graph from polymarket also clearly illustrate that people believe that new cases of COVID-19 will not reach 200,000 by 2021 October 1.
Question 3.- Explain in detail a Predictive Market project, it cannot be Augur, Gnosis or those explained in class.
For purpose of this exercise, I will be talking about SPORTX.
What is SportX.
SportX is a peer-to-peer non custodial crypto betting sports platform. It runs on SportX protocol which are a set of smart contracts that operate on the ethereum and Matic network.
This exchange allow users all over the world to bet against each other using DAI or ETH from their wallets.
SportX offers over 17markets like MMA fights, Baseball, NBA, Basketball, American football, soccer, Cricket and many others for it's users.
When you visit the SportX official page, you will land on the official home page. At the very top left corner, the is an icon labeled Deposit. Click on this icon and you can deposit currency from you wallet.
Beside the deposit icon is the setting icon.
Immediately beneath the deposit and setting icon , there is a bar requesting a sign up for new users and login for users who have an account. I am a new visitor so I decided to sign up, which I did. Inputted my email and confirmed.
After confirmation of my email, I signed into the platform. At the bottom of the home page are five features of the SportX Exchange platform.
Exchange.
This feature offers users of SportX with Various activities that they can place a bet on. It includes popular events, upcoming events, American football, basketball, crickets just to name a few.
Account.
The account feature give a detail of the users deposit, the amount of money won by user and the total bet won over the week.
Tournament.
This feature gives users the opportunity to bet with each other. This feature shows ongoing events, upcoming and past events where users can bet.
Token.
The Token feature allows for users to stake their money on the SX coin for future rewards. When users stake money they receive discounts like reduce betting fee and participation in governance.
Chat.
The chat is an amazing feature. It serves as an online social platform for users to chat and share betting ideas.
It is important to note that the fee for users to bet and use the SportX platform is 2.00% of profit from each bet.
And also equally important to note that the official token for SportX is SX an ERC-20 token that exist on the Ethereum and Matic networks.
As at the time of this post SX is worth $0.6276 dollar on coinmarketcap.
Question 4. For you, what will happen to Predictive Markets with blockchain technology? Who will benefit from them
Predictive markets dates back long before the innovation of the blockchain technology. It has been an important part of commercial development for a very long time, playing an important role in finance.
With the coming of Blockchain technology, it is ok to say predictive markets are surging in recent years. The innovation of the blockchain Oracles and Decentralized application are placing Predictive market at the center of commerce. The ability of user to not only trade Crypto currency, but have the opportunity to bet on possible live outcome is Charming.
Predictive market is becoming democratic with the presence of Blockchain technology, giving the opportunities for users not just to bet on odds that have been place by an organization but also to determine the odds by themselves.
So answering the questions who will benefit from predictive market, I believe it is the end user. In being able to decide the future of their bets as a decentralized system where everyone is involve in decision making is essential for the user.
Conclusion.
It is a known fact that predictive market is one of a kind. It has existed for a very long time and it's an integral part of the worlds economy.
To add to this, the coming of Blockchain has enhanced the ability and opportunities offered by predictive Markets. Innovations linked Blockchain Oracle and others are very important in the predictive market sphere for Blockchain.
Thanks to professor @pelon53 for an exquisite explanation as I did understand I'm details what a Predictive market is all about.
CC. Professor @pelon53.