Metric Indicators - Crypto Academy / S5W2 - Homework post for pelon53.

in SteemitCryptoAcademy3 years ago (edited)

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1. Indicate the current value of the Puell Multiple Indicator of Bitcoin. Perform a technical analysis of the LTC using the Puell Multiple, show screenshots and indicate possible market entries and exits.

Before indicating the value of ""Puell Multiple indicator and performing a technical analysis on it, it is very important to know what exactly is this ""Puell Multiple indicator""

What is Puell Multiple indicator

It is that indicator that analysis the the supply of Bitcoin since it's base mainly on the income of miners which they usually recieve and this indicator is relatively very important and also the most used indicator.

Indicate the current value of the Puell Multiple Indicator of Bitcoin.

The current value of Puell Multiple Indicator of Bitcoin is 6.25 BTC. So what miners do is that they does their job by validating their various blocks in order to receive this reward of 6.25 BTC eve though this Bitcoin mining is really of complicated now simply because other coins have evolved and it's being In great competition with Bitcoin mining. How ever, Bitcoin miners still work extremely hard to validate their blocks in order to receive their rewards of 6.25 BTC since Puell's multiple indicator can be use to look for good buying points because there is usually a point where miners will need to maintain their mining cost by selling their positions. However, beautiful offers are usually also brought in the Puell's multiple indicator so that traders could buy at that particular point which is favourable to them

So now in other to determine the current value of the Puell's multiple indicator for Bitcoin, we will have to to some mathematical expressions as seen below
👇

Puel multiple = Daily currency issuance of BTC/ 💲÷ 365 days of MA(moving average) of daily currency issuance in 💲(USD)


iMarkup_20211125_155425.jpg
Image source

After doing that, we can now see that the Current value of Puell Multiple Indicator is 1.22


Perform a technical analysis of the LTC using the Puell Multiple

By performing this task, I will have to go to studio.glassnode.com for easy demonstration simply because this site enables the Puell Multiple Indicator to be able to analyze the cryptographic assets as I will start by analysing how it's price movement were in conjunction with that of the Puell's indicator at exactly the time which Litecoin halving had occured

iMarkup_20211125_160237.jpgImage source


iMarkup_20211125_165359.jpg screenshot from Litecoin price

Currently, the Puell's Multiple in Litecoin in the time of carrying out this task is 1.29788917 and its price value would be $228.97


iMarkup_20211125_160549.jpgImage source

iMarkup_20211125_160740.jpgImage source

On Sunday May 18 2014, the first Litecoin halving was carried out, taking into account that the Multiple indicator had a value of 0.94243602 and a price of the value in LTC of $10.35 at that particular time and the the last last halving which we consider as the second halving in the Litecoin on Friday March 29, 2019, we see that the Puell's Multiple indicator had a value of 0.90111074 and the LTC price was around $61.30

We see here that the Puell's multiple indicator was not in the sale nor buy zone between these two event but we also how the price of the currency was in the buy zone during the first halving having an increase in Litecoin price but during the second halving, the Litecoin price has decreased and it was in the sell zone


iMarkup_20211125_161251.jpgImage source

We see here that the Litecoin price in Puell's Multiple had reach a bullish momentum as it was in the buy zone. Looking at it clearly, we see also how Litecoin price had declined due to a heavy purchase hence l leading to a heavy bullish


Looking at the screenshot below, we see that if we continued holding the Litecoin and waiting for it to hit an upward movement, we could sell it and have enough profit since we see how the Litecoin price was rising and rising

iMarkup_20211125_161546.jpgImage source


After going to tradingview.com and carrying out a technical analysis with LTC/BTC using both 50MA, 200MA and RSI indicators, to see my overbought and oversold area, I could still see the points that identify the Puell's indicator which I could now speculate it

iMarkup_20211125_163640.jpg Screenshot from tradingview.com

I can now say that my analysis came out as a bullish momentum because prices dropped into the red zone of the Puell's multiple indicator there by enabling traders and investors to be able to sell and get enough profit.

2. Explain in your own words what Halving is, how important Halving is and what are the next reward values ​​that miners will have. When would the last Halving be.

Explain in your own words what Halving is

Halving simply means that the reward of the Bitcoin is usually divided into halfs before giving it to the bitcoin miners and ever since the existence of Bitcoin in 2008, it has been halved three(3) times and this halving occur every after 4years as miners received their rewards after validating their various blocks. The first halving occurred back then in 2012. Bitcoin reward was initially 50BTC per block l, so it had to reduce to half which is 25BTC . The second halving occurred in 2016 as the previous reward of 25BTC per block had to halved to 12.5BTC per block. The last halving occurred last year 2020 ad the bitcoin reward was halved to 6.25BTC per block.


how important is Halving

We see that these process of halving has enable more BTC to be created so as miners can have the opportunity accumulate more BTC which is relatively very important because it continue to be giving more value to BTC since it's issuance is limited hence creating more value to the BTC for a long term.

Again, since the halving is reducing it's number of BTC per block, it inturn enable many people to have more access to the BTC since the price is rising and rising everyday. As people will continue having access to this Bitcoin, when the halving will end, there won't still be more BTC but by then so many people would have had enough BTC will have great value in their portfolios since there were gathering the BTC when halving was still occuring because each time the halving occured, it lead to an increase in it's value in the rise of BTC


what are the next reward values ​​that miners will have

I will be answering this task in the form of a table as seen below 👇

YearBTC rewardblock numberBTC achieved
2009500.0000010.500.000
201225210.0005.250.000
201612.5420.0002.625.000
20206.25630.0001.321.000
20243.125740.000656.250
20281.5625850.00328.125

The table above tell's us that the next rewards for miners will be in 2024 since it's the year the next halving will occur. The current rewards that miners receive now is 6.25 BTC meaning that they will start receiving 3.125 BTC in the next halving which is in 2024


When would the last Halving be.

The last Halving is set to occur in 2140 when Bitcoin hit "6.930.00" per block. It is also said that miners will stop receiving rewards after this last Halving as there will only be commissions available for every transaction carried out.

3. Analyze the Hash Rate indicator, using Ethereum. Indicate the current value of the Hash Rate. Show screenshots.

I will be performing this task by going through studio.glassbode.com so as to be able to identify the hash rate indicator with Ethereum.


iMarkup_20211125_181905.jpgScreenshot from studio.glassbode.com

The screenshot above show that the hash rate is 774 terahases/seconds showing that there is a great rise in the hash rate in Ethereum which tell us how investors have full faith in it because so many people are now involved in the computing process. Now we can see that Hash rates price increase is influence by the price of the Ethereum



iMarkup_20211125_181942.jpgScreenshot from studio.glassbode.com

The screenshot above shows that the current price of ETH is $4,414.01 with a hashrate of 771 terahash/seconds which near it's highest value that has ever occured and we also see how the hashrate value have increased. But early before, Ethereum asset had to suffer due to a drastically fall in BTC hash rate and this made the ETH value to fall as well. It's a good news the value Started to rise back since so many miners Started mining BTC. This turn the value of the ETH including it's hash rate to also start rising


The screenshot below shows how the low peak and this affected miners because the low peak was having a hashrate of 499 terahashes/second. It's a good thing since it had bounce back and rise back in it's value and hashrate at a relative fast rate until even reaching it's all time high. So I see this ETH to even surpass it's all time high and continue rising in it's value since BTC value still needs to rise again in future and we already know that once there is a rise in BTC value, ETH value also rises. We already know that one day BTC will hit about 100k, so I also see this ETH value hitting over 7.5k by then as well which it most have surpass it's all time high. So I believe in this project a lot


iMarkup_20211125_182210.jpgScreenshot from studio.glassbode.com


Carrying out a technical analysis on tradingview.com, we see that both ETH value and it's hashrate can continue to rise together especially if more people continue using it's currency. So after carrying out a technical analysis with ETH/USD using both 50MA, 200MA and RSI indicators, to see my overbought and oversold area. We can also see that there is a promising increase in the value of this ETH together with it's hash rate


iMarkup_20211125_182723.jpgScreenshot from tradingview.com

4. Calculate the current Stock to flow model. Explain what should happen in the next Halving with the Stock to Flow. Calculate the Stock to flow model for that date, taking into account that the miners' reward is reduced by half. Show screenshots.


iMarkup_20211125_212256.jpgScreenshot source

I will be calculating the current stock flow model by using the formula

SF = Stock ÷ Flow Where,

Flow is F = Rewards/Block, But we know that the current rewards per block is 6.25 BTC

And

1 BTC is usually mined every after 10 mins and 6BTC is mined every after 1 hour And 144 BTC is usually mined every After 24 hours then with 52.560 BTC being mined every after 365 days

This implies that in other to calculate Flow, we will have

F = 6.25 × 52.560 = 328.500 BTC

But at the time of performing this task, the current BTC price in school is 18,881,779.00 BTC

So in other to calculate the the stock flow,

SF = Stock ÷ Flow = 18,881,779.00 ÷ 328.500 = 57.4787

Now I'm other to have the current value of stock flow model, we will have to use the standard equation 0.4SF^3*

Hence we have

Stock to flow model as 0.4×57.4787^3=75,959.27


Explain what should happen in the next Halving with the Stock to Flow

What will actually happened is that the next halving will still be dividend into two. That means we will be having ""3.125 BTC** rewards per block in the next halving because 6.25 ÷ 2 = 3.125.

So in other to calculate the stock flow here we will now have new formula as SF = 1÷ Flow

We can see that it's a scenario because we are going to have an increase in stock flow due to the reduction of the BTC to half


iMarkup_20211125_212409.jpgScreenshot source

Let's get to calculations but knowing well that our reward will be 3.125

Okay we have to add the stock supply of the current circulation price to 655,250

There fore,

2024 BTC Stock supply is 656,250 + 18,881,779.00 = 19,538,040

Then for stock flow we have

SF = 19,538,040 ÷ [3.125×52560] = 118.953

After having stock flow value, then In other to get the current value of stock to flow model, we can use the formula below

Stick to flow model ==0.4×SF^3

Which is

Stick to flow model = 0.4 × 118.953^3 = 673265235003670.8

Conclusion

So far we have been able to indicate the current value of the Puell's multiple indicator and I have been able to successfully carry out a technical analysis on Litecoin coin using Puell's multiple indicator and I Defined the Puell's multiple indicator as that indicator that analysis the the supply of Bitcoin since it's base mainly on the income of miners which they usually recieve.

We have also seen what halving is and the importance of the halving, we have also seen when the next halving will occur which is 2024 and we have also seen that the lady halving will occur in 2140.

I have also been able to analyze the the hash rate indicator by using ETH and I also successfully showed the current value of the hash rate

In the last question, I was able to calculate and successfully came out with the current value of the stock to flow model and I was able to explain how the next halving will happen in stock to flow model and inturn still calculated the stock to flow model for that date as I also had to assume that the rewards of miners was 3.125

Thanks so much Professor @pelon53 for this beautiful lectures for I have been able to grabbed so much knowledge from it

CC:
@pelon53

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