how to retire on Ethereum all over the world
i'll tell you exactly how many ethereum you need to do that so this will be fun first one disclaimer now this is an investment advice you all know that and this is all again as usual powered by mathematics. i get a lot of questions. the type of questions someone ask , how to dollar cost average how to supercharge your crypto portfolio ?
so this journey begins with an area called ethereum dominance and this is important to the actual valuation model so bear with me as we go through this so first step so back as recently as december 2020 ethereum made up about 15 of bitcoin's market capital now it's 24 and that's important as we go forward so keep that number in mind another very important ratio was the ethereum to bitcoin ratio it has gone from point zero to two to point zero three eight it's another way of looking at the same type of numbers.
let's talk very quickly about the differences between bitcoin and ethereum so first of all as you all know bitcoin is a digital currency and a store of value whereas ethereum is a token capable of facilitating smart contracts big big difference also bitcoin began in january 2009 ethereum is a little younger began in july 2015. bitcoin and one of the things i love about bitcoin is its finite supply there will only ever be 21 million coins of which 4 million are lost only 18.6 million have been mined to date et cetera you've heard me talk about that before but ethereum has no cap on capacity i'll talk more about the actual supply in a while as well the symbols you'll hear me say btc eth they're the two different symbols and the inventor satoshi nakamoto versus vitalik buterin and a couple of other people that's a bit of the history that you need to know because those differences are quite important now one of the things that has me very bullish on ethereum is the fact that its partnership network is incredibly powerful in addition to these some of these big logos you've got new groups jumping on every single day and you've got big big firms like visa as well that are deep in partnerships with ethereum.
so not only does ethereum have more developers but it also has the strongest set of partnerships out there anywhere why i'm extremely bullish on ethereum another factor that's important to bear in mind is cbdc's central bank digital currencies need a blockchain like ethereum so imagine you are a sovereign state and you want to launch your own central bank digital currency. you will need a platform like ethereum and that is the best i know that many countries are conducting feasibility studies right now as to which platform to go with so let's talk about the supply again a lot of this has to do with economics and supply and demand are two very critical things so let's dig into the actual supply for a second the ethereum supply the market cap today is 210 billion dollars and the price at the time of creating the slide is about 1837 so the coin supply today is 114 million coins substantially more than bitcoin now what i also calculated was two new ethereum are supplied or mined every 15 seconds it sounds like a lot and it is so the new eath per year is about 4.2 million. so i there is some talk about putting a cap on the ethereum supply but none of that is set in stone yet however to be conservative and this is important for the valuation models we'll look at very shortly.
i need to know exactly how many coins there are so i can estimate the price in the year 2030. so if you look at the addition of the number of eats per year based on the supply growing by two new eth every 15 seconds going out for 10 years the supply in 2021 will be about 114 million to 118 to 22 123 23 and so on all the way up to about 152 million coins in the year 2030. again as usual i build up the story it'll make sense in a little while so bear with me also for those who have seen my ethereum price predictions by the year 2040 i tend to be very conservative in my price predictions i'd rather be conservative and sandbag a little bit then give some astronomical price prediction like somebody's saying oh it's going to be 50 000 by march no that's not my style so what i did in my price prediction model i looked at a whole bunch of valuation models like metcalfe's law and everything else did some forward projections looked at all the top analysts in the industry excluded a couple and i came up with this chart,
so please check that out if you're interested as to how i came up with the 12 800 by the year 2030. again super conservative you've got people like raul powell who believes that ethereum could hit 20 000 in this particular bull cycle which means by the end of this year so that's my first price prediction the second price prediction is a function of ethereum dominance and that's why i had that slide up at the beginning of this presentation so a lot of people believe that ethereum could make up 33 of the bitcoin market capitalization,
price predictions for bitcoin i estimate bitcoin could reach 551 000 by the year 2040. and that would bring a bitcoin market cap to about 10.4 trillion which is very similar to that of gold and if if the ethereum dominance is a third of that of the market cap of bitcoin that will give the market of ethereum around 3.5 trillion and the number of eth coins in the year 2030 is 152 million it'll give out a price per ethereum coin at about 22 938 that is my second model the third model and this talks about at peak ethereum was had 10 of the bitcoin value so if you imagine the ethereum to bitcoin ratio today again another reason i showed the ratios up front was 1840 over 48 000 which bridge both ethereum bitcoin trading today that's 0.038 and many predict basically there could be a ten eighth to one bitcoin ratio and some believe it could even go a lot higher so assuming if that ten eighth to one bitcoin ratio happens and again the bitcoin price in the year 2030 is 551 000 that would place the price of eth at about 55 000. they're the three so far now to prove that it can be 10 to the bitcoin price that actually happened in january 2018. so not that long ago
this is another chart
i put together in another ethereum price prediction video and ethereum opportunity video as well so check that out if you're interested now let's put together a quick summary of these three different models we've got my model of 12 800 in the year 2030. you've got the eath dominance thesis of 33 of bitcoin market cap of 22 938 again in 2030 and you've got eth going to temps into the bitcoin value would bring it to 55 000. so the fourth model is taking an average of all three you've got my ultra conservative model of 12800 with the 10 percent of bitcoin value of 55 000 giving you an average of 30 000 and i'll explain shortly why that's very important so give everybody the options to whichever valuation model they prefer and which ones they want to use so a quick warning to everybody again none of this is investment advice you've got people some very smart people like shamath he believes we go to zero so big warning please wait for the conclusion. because i'll tell you why it's not going to go to zero at the very end of this article as well so here we go where's the beef sorry for all the vegans out there no offense but this is the meat of the presentation we're going to jump into.
first of all i analyzed the cost of living index purchasing power and average salary across 180 different countries and if anybody's interested in the model i have that and then i picked the top countries. i also picked the top places that people want to retire in the world and put together a different price model of how much you need to retire in these places across these three different pricing models so let me explain and walk you through in detail the first one i picked the cayman islands for two reasons one it's the most expensive place in the world to live and two raul paul is there and he's the guy that believes ethereum can hit 20 000 in this bull cycle which basically means more than a 10x from where it is today which would be great but you know i like to be conservative so if you imagine the model here on the right this is the mechanics of it again it's a huge retirement model.
i'll take a little bit of time going through the first one so you know how it works i have the different price prediction models the four of them i got my model the ethereum dominance the temp center bitcoin value and the average of all three and then i've got your monthly spend which is indexed by one percent per year of inflation that's the year 2030 to the year 2055. so i added 25 years out i also conservatively assumed the ethereum would appreciate by three percent per year so given that you actually have an amount that you can spend every single month so the cost just to live in the cayman islands per month today is about seven thousand three and twenty two dollars of course tax is not taken into account assume this is all after tax and people are retired and everything else if you want to take tax into account that's pretty easy to do just take your particular jurisdiction. but it's too difficult for me to estimate tax because i got people from all over the world with a whole host of different tax-free vehicles for retirement anyhow the point of that is how much ethereum do you need to generate 7 300 per month for the next 25 years beginning in the year 2030 that'll take you from 2030 all the way to the year 2054.
the answer is assuming my model you will need 129 ethereum if you assume the ethereum dominance model you will need 72 ethereum if you assume ethereum will hit 10 of bitcoin market value and bitcoin hits 550 000 in the year 2030 you need 30 ethereum and taking an average of all those three you need 54 ethereum so that's how many ethereum you need for the most expensive place in the world and just to recap if you want to retire in the most expensive place in the world you're going to need somewhere between 129 and 30 ethereum depending on which model you want to use.
let's check at country number two usa where i live here exact same methodology price the cost index and what it takes to retire a simple life you need in the u.s 50 488 a month now that doesn't mean you live in manhattan or san francisco but somewhere that's you know cheaper like a arizona nevada utah place like that that'll cover your food rent and basic medical so the cost or the number of ethereum you need in the u.s again using my model you need 96 the dominance model 54 the temp center bitcoin value 22 and the average is 41. so think somewhere between say 25 and 100 to survive in the us depending on the model i would think a safe number would be a hundred ethereum in the united states just to be conservative let's go a little further
let's look at australia and a big hello to all the australian fans down there uh you guys love crypto so thank you for tuning in all the time so australia to live conservatively you need about five thousand two hundred twenty nine dollars a month and that means you need approximately 92 each using my model all the way down to 21 each depending on which model you want to go with again if ethereum becomes temps at a bitcoin value you only need 21 ethereum to retire and that's not a lot next in the box portugal in europe considered one of the best places to retire it's crypto friendly.
it's tax-free low cost of living good health care it's become a very popular space and i know a lot a few friends of mine actually here in the us have european heritage and they're looking to go back there so portugal again you need about four thousand dollars a month it's indexed and everything else as you know you'll need somewhere between 70 ethereum using my model all the way down to 16 and the average of those is 29 ethereum.
panama you need again very similar to portugal about four thousand dollars a month in my model you need 68 ethereum all the way down to 16 with an average of 29 ethereum per month costa rica very popular place for americans to retire you will need about three thousand five hundred dollars a month to live well and comfortably uh for my model you need 62 ethereum and the best model the biggest valuation of 55 000 i the 10 of bitcoin value you need about 14 ethereum so on average it's 26 ethereum malaysia a spot again very good standard of living and a lot of expats live there you need 51 per my model 12 for the 10 bitcoin value model and an average of 21 to be able to spend about 2 900 a month mexico another popular place there you need twenty seven hundred dollars a month ethereum my model need 48 ethereum all the way down to 11. on average 20 ethereum to live well in mexico colombia you need 1964 dollars to live okay there again interesting place good medical good standard living a lot of americans are moving there now of course you need the spanish language too the ethereum for my model 35 uh all the way down to eight with an average of 15 ethereum to retire there indonesia a little show here this uh little egg here comes from bali and indonesia i just thought i'd show that i try to pick up places from all over the world and bali indonesia is an amazing place and i'm not doing a travel plug or anything like that but it's also a place where a lot of people particularly australians like to retire
so there you need about 750 a month to survive all these dollar denominations are talking about are us dollars which have been equated for all the different currencies across the world the ethereum needed you need 31 all the way down to seven with an average of 13 to retire well in indonesia and my last model is vietnam there you need about 1676 us dollars a month to live my model you need 30 ethereum all the way down to seven ethereum so somewhere on average say 13 ethereum to retire in vietnam which is not that bad at all so conclusion of all of this and sorry for being a long one but you guys wanted to know different costs of indices all around the world conclusion number one ethereum has been extr the news from ethereum has been extremely positive and there's a lot of speculation that the future is incredibly bright a lot of people are talking to that and it has a lot of long-term potential and a high probability of success conclusion number one conclusion number two many believe ethereum could be worth at least a hundred thousand dollars by the year 2040 way beyond my my models.
Thank you