Sir John Bagot Glubb aka Glubb Pasha

As is my habit, I've attached a link to the author's Wikipedia page, if you want the history behind him, click on the photo and knock yourself out.

My intent is to review this work so we can get an idea as to how well Glubb's essay describes what's going on around us today.

I'll post one section at a time and will then offer my opinion as to what I think the future holds.

Be prepared for this possible future to cause some "Cognitive Dissonance".

Sometimes, we all need a "Wake up call".

Introduction

Glubb's work attempts to quantify the life cycle of Empires.

He begins by pointing out that:

‘The only thing we learn from history,’ it has been said, ‘is that men never learn from history’.

There is another saying that "those who ignore their past, are doomed to repeat it" and Glubb also addresses the blinders many nations wear when examining their own history.

If we are considering the history of our own country, we write at length of the periods when our ancestors were prosperous and victorious, but we pass quickly over their shortcomings or their defeats. Our people are represented as patriotic heroes, their enemies as grasping imperialists, or subversive rebels. In other words, our national histories are propaganda, not well balanced investigations.

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He points out the inherent flaw of most studies of history, saying

To derive any useful instruction from history, it seems to me essential first of all to grasp the principle that history, to be meaningful, must be the history of the human race. For history is a continuous process, gradually developing, changing and turning back, but in general moving forward in a single mighty stream. Any useful lessons to be derived must be learned by the study of the whole flow of human development, not by the selection of short periods here and there in one country or another. Every age and culture is derived from its predecessors, adds some contribution of its own, and passes it on to its successors. If we boycott various periods of history, the origins of the new cultures which succeeded them cannot be explained.

And sums it all up in the statement,

Our piecemeal historical work is still mainly dominated by emotion and prejudice.

Here's a great place for another term I've learned here on Steemit, "Confirmation Bias".

Emotion and prejudice are very powerful motivators in finding the exact "scientific studies" that back up our preconceived notions, and skipping over the "totally discredited, fake news" type of studies that point out our flaws and misdeeds.

Glubb defines "empire" as an organization consisting of a "home" country and "colonies". He refines this definition in his essay to signify great power, often called today a "superpower".

Historically, most empires have been huge blocks of geography, mostly without overseas possessions.

One number jumps right out of the chart Glubb shows next.

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That number is the Duration in Years and Glubb goes on to point out that the approximately 250 year lifespan of Empires has remained relatively constant regardless of technology.

An interesting deduction from the figures seems to be that the duration of empires does not depend on the speed of travel or the nature of weapons. The Assyrians marched on foot and fought with spears and bow and arrows. The British used artillery, railways and ocean-going ships. Yet the two empires lasted for approximately the same periods.

His explanation for this similarity boils down to one, relatively unchanging factor, the length of a human generation.

One of the very few units of measurement which have not seriously changed since the Assyrians is the human ‘generation’, a period of about twenty-five years. Thus a period of 250 years would represent about ten generations of people.

The Fate of Nations next goes on to list six common stages of an empire's life cycle and the details which define them.

I'll list those stages now with a short description of each from the essay, and will go into greater detail in following posts:

Stage one. The Age of Pioneers.

Again and again in history we find a small nation, treated as insignificant by its contemporaries, suddenly emerging from its homeland and overrunning large areas of the world.

Stage two. The Age of Conquests

The first stage of the life of a great nation, therefore, after its outburst, is a period of amazing initiative, and almost incredible enterprise, courage and hardihood. These qualities, often in a very short time, produce a new and formidable nation. These early victories, however, are won chiefly by reckless bravery and daring initiative.

Stage three. The Age of Commerce

The conquest of vast areas of land and their subjection to one government automatically acts as a stimulant to commerce. Both merchants and goods can be exchanged over considerable distances. Moreover, if the empire be an extensive one, it will include a great variety of climates, producing extremely varied products, which the different areas will wish to exchange with one another.

Stage four. The Age of Affluence

The first direction in which wealth injures the nation is a moral one. Money replaces honour and adventure as the objective of the best young men. Moreover, men do not normally seek to make money for their country or their community, but for themselves. The object of the young and the ambitious is no longer fame, honour or service, but cash.

Stage five. The Age of Intellect

The great wealth of the nation is no longer needed to supply the mere necessities, or even the luxuries of life. Ample funds are available also for the pursuit of knowledge. It is remarkable with what regularity this phase follows on that of wealth, in empire after empire, divided by many centuries.

Stage six. The Age of Decadence

It is of interest to note that decadence is the disintegration of a system, not of its individual members. The habits of the members of the community have been corrupted by the enjoyment of too much money and too much power for too long a period. The result has been, in the framework of their national life, to make them selfish and idle. A community of selfish and idle people declines, internal quarrels develop in the division of its dwindling wealth, and pessimism follows, which some of them endeavour to drown in sensuality or frivolity.

These six stages appear all too familiar to anyone who dares to look.

The next post will dig a little deeper into The Age of Pioneers.