Frozen Conflicts & Psychological Operations (PSYOPS): The Case of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia
The Caucasus region is of significant interest due to its historical relevance as well as a producer and transit route for highly contestable resources such as oil and gas. As King (2008) notes, "the Caucasus represented a kind of borderland, a frontier where different peoples, empires, and social systems came into contact" (p. 22). Numerous frozen conflicts persist resulting in no viable comprehensive political solution. This is the result of various ethnic groups and national minorities claiming self-determination and territorial independence from their respective mother states. As such, the Caucasus is the most separatist prone region in the world, resulting in approximately one hundred thousand deaths and an estimated two million six hundred thousand refugees. In addition, the conflicts have also aggravated the economic situation in the Caucasus region, fanned Islamic fundamentalism, instilled escalating terrorism and generated several internal and regionally destabilizing effects. "The economic decline and chronic socioeconomic problems of the past two decades have seriously aggravated the potential for conflict in the Caucasus" (Coene 2009, p.139).
The utilization of various theoretical models in order to conceptualize conflict is an important analytical method. Considering ethnicity and tribalism as historical factors, which contribute to increasing tensions, instrumentalism was useful in identifying other aspects related to the causes of conflict. In this view, ethnicity in principle is a useful tool, instrumentalized by social groups or influential leaders to obtain political, material or other gains. In other words, elites seeking their own hidden goals initiate and perpetuate ethnically based conflict. This coincides with what Gagnon (1994) stated concerning "violent conflict along ethnic cleavages is provoked by elites in order to create a domestic political context where ethnicity is the only politically relevant identity" (p. 132). In this sense, the ethnic factor must be politicized in order to mobilize the masses. As such, ethnicity, defined as a social construct, something malleable, flexible and open to influence. This correlates with Ellul (1973) concerning the effectiveness of propaganda in relation to the overall objective. "The essential objective of pre-propaganda is to prepare man for a particular action, to make him sensitive to some influence, to get him into condition for the time when he will effectively, and without delay or hesitation, participate in an action" (p. 31).
The separatist conflicts concerning South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia, which has reflected pro-Western sentiments and longstanding European aspirations vis à vis Nato membership, would serve as an applicable example of using IO to achieve long term grand strategy objectives. It is especially relevant to note that Russia acknowledges South Ossetia and Abkhazia independence in relation to Georgia's political realignment towards the West. Current president, Mikheil Saakashvili whose Rose Revolution in 2004 as well as attention to the Autonomous Republic of Adjara crisis, resolved through peaceful methods, portrays a willingness to support US foreign policy objectives. IO strategies utilized would aligned with discouraging South Ossetia and Abkhazia as breakaway regions through effective use of soft power initiatives over an extended period. Strategic communication efforts would be initiated and extended, especially in regards to (PD) public diplomacy which as Paul (2009) notes includes, "government sponsored cultural, educational and informational programs, citizen exchanges and broadcasts used to promote the national interest of a country through understanding, informing, and influencing foreign audiences" (p. 7). This would entail, student exchange programs, cultural events sponsored by Universities and NGO's as well foreign language English teachers who utilize Western created materials and examples, which exemplify western democratic ideals.
PSYOP activities could include variations of VOA white propaganda campaigns aimed specifically at both the indigenous Georgians as well as separatists with the singular goal of influence. All formats of contemporary media who be used to reach a diverse demographic, using the appropriate language and cultural symbols necessary to achieve the objective. "The propagandist must utilize all of the technical means at his disposal the press, radio, TV, movies, posters, meetings, door to door canvassing" (Ellul 1973, p. 9). Consistency and commitment are key. As Cialdini (2009) states, "cognitive overload in our society, the prevalence of shortcut decision making is likely to increase proportionately" (p. 234) In addition, "successful propaganda will occupy every moment of the individual's life" and "It is based on slow, constant impregnation" (Ellul 1973, p. 17). The objective goal is to operate within what Ellul described as the unconscious level, to maximize potential and effectiveness. Both Ellul and Cialdini advocated consistency and duration in this regard. IO methods, which utilize such non-kinetic frameworks, enable long term results, which is reflective of mass media usage coupled with direct actions. Political elites using what Ellul referred to as direct incitement based on politicizing ethnically social constructions can effectively deescalate tensions as per Gagnon (1994) instrumentalism. In this sense, language and symbols as Cialdini noted was particularly useful in terms of mass compliance, especially in relation to obedience and authority.
In the end, contemporary soft power IO methods incorporated within proxy conflict zones will compliment conventional efforts of intelligence sharing, financial support and training to accomplish long term objectives. The South Ossetia and Abkhazia separatist movements in Georgia provide a unique opportunity to utilize IO, especially the more contextual based aspects as opposed to technological and system oriented EW or CNO. In addition, the effort would be cost effective and could provide the blueprint for future non-kinetic operations in which internal ethnic and identity conflicts are compounded by larger factors related to geopolitical alignment. As Gagnon (1994) noted, "The key is to make a particular identity, and a specific definition of that identity, the only relevant or legitimate one in political contexts" (p. 137). Effective IO non-kinetic methods, which incorporate foreign political elites within the PSYOP environment, enable such objectives.
References:
Brown, M. (1997). The Causes of Internal Conflict. An overview. In: Nationalism and Ethnic Conflict {International Security Readers}. MIT Press.
Cialdini, Robert. 2009. Influence: Science and Practice. Boston: Pearson.
Coene, F. (2009). The Caucasus (1st ed.). London [England]: Routledge.
Ellul, J., Kellen, K., & Lerner, J. (1973). Propaganda: The formation of men's attitudes (Vintage Books ed.). New York: Vintage Books.
King, C. (2008). The Ghost of Freedom (1st ed.). New York; Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Gagnon, V. (1994). Ethnic Nationalism and International Conflict: The Case of Serbia. International Security, 19(3), 130166.