Mathematics of Vaccination
Let's play with the numbers and find the origin of devastating anecdotes.
I will do some very simple math and I will push the calculation in favour of conspiracy theories:
Population of USA: 323.000.000
Population of Europe: 743.000.000
Total population with the access to the internet:
1.000.000.000
Availability of the internet, about 10 years. Thus there were about
100.000.000 people exposed to the vaccines. Let's say MMR, The Vaccine of the Doom.
This is simple math, people could be 1, 2, 3...100 years old, thus for some quick math, well enough approximation is to simply divide the total number of the people by 100. And multiply by 10 for 10 years.
People who had the contact with vaccines:
100.000.000
The frequency of autism is about 1%, in other words, 1 in 100.
So let's divide the number from above by 100.
The number of people People who had the contact with the vaccines, have the access to the internet and have the autism:
1.000.000
Autism can be detected in a time span of about 3 years, but again I will be generous and simply use the larger number of 2.000 days (about 5.5 years).
In other words, those 1.000.000 autistic children could "got the autism" on any day in this time span.
For example 1/3/2012 or 13/06/2013 or 27/11/2014 or... You understand the point.
One day od those days was the day when they got the shot.
How many cases should be expected to coincident?
Well, simple math, again:
1.000.000 / 2000 = 500
In the Western population of about 1.000.000.000 people, it is reasonable to expect hundreds or even thousand(s) of internet anecdotes about the autism and the vaccines.
Bonus math:
Those 100.000.000 million kinds went to vaccination to the nearest hospital.
In order to do that, they needed to travel for about 10 km on average.
It is 1.000.000.000 km to get one single vaccine.
It is reasonable to expect that 5 - 10 children died in the car crash just when they went to get the vaccine.
Does it mean it is not safe to even go to get the vaccine?
No! This is the power of very high numbers.
High numbers tend to be a problem for many people in different areas :(
In my country, Serbia, there is the trend among the anti vaccers to demand "the doctor to sign that it will be ok". How on Earth can anyone sign that unrelated thing will not affect something else? Imagine that you visit the car mechanic shop to fix the suspension and demand the signed document that guarantees that your engine will work fine in 3 years time period? Nonsense..