Before The Fork
Welp...
I can't pretend to know what's going to happen after Tuesday. I'm excited, and I'm nervous. Anybody who says they know what will happen is full of it. We're all in the dark.
I think the changes are appropriate and will lead to a more robust economic system. This should make the platform stronger and more resilient.
Reduced inflation will hopefully make STEEM a more attractive investment and provide traders with more opportunities for short term speculation. If traders can be enticed to splash around in the market, volume should increase to the point that the sell pressure from rewards and power downs no longer dominates market activity.
However, the severe reduction in the Steem Power withdrawal period is haunting me. The potential for large stakeholders to rapidly divest is a dangerous prospect.
Will the price crash from an overwhelming amount of STEEM flooding the market a week from Tuesday? Will it crash due to fears of this happening?
On the other hand, we might have a pretty good idea by Wednesday night. We will know if and when large power downs are iniated, and that can give us some sense of how things will play out. If the divestment that some people are expecting simply doesn't occur, will the market respond by sending STEEM to the moon?
Another possibility seems unlikely, but it shouldn't be written off... What if not much happens? What if people go into wait and see mode and the markets appear as if it's business as usual? That might be the best possible outcome here. We will be left with a more resilient and robust economic system, and the sense that most stakeholders are in it for the long run. But we won't have a spike in the price to contend with, and we'd avoid a lot of future complications.
One thing that I find very comforting, despite my nervousness, is that after we make it through these upcoming weeks and months, we will be better equipped for the long run. The decreased withdraw period will accelerate the movement of capital away from weak, fickle holders who might be quick to turn tail and run at the first signs of trouble, towards the sturdy and resolute.
Those of us who never lost faith during the darkest times for the platform will be here when the dust settles. The ones with a commitment to the platform for the long term will still be here. We will be a tighter community, with a stronger identity and a brighter future.
I hope. :)
Your cartoon says it all. I am extremely new to steemit, but I can still see that the posts about this upcoming fork are not even known to most of the population here. However, those that have a great deal of influence and steem power are surely aware, so it may all depend on them. I am truly loving this community, I have faith in it, I'm putting that out there in the universe-all will be well!
Oh and...you have a new follower @bacchist !
I also look forward to the hardfork as I want to know what will happen, but it also makes me very nervous, I feel maybe I am not ready for it yet guess its all wait and see. upvoted.
If someone is dumping steem on the market fast we should be able to buy it from them for cheap. :)
I can't speak for anyone else but I'm here to stay until the bloody end. Hopefully it doesn't come to that, but I'm sure you know what I mean.
Have the witnesses spoken about a PLAN B to help keep Steemit afloat should the worst-case scenario happen? Are there safeguards against sinking this ship?
I think it's unlikely that it will sink... but the waters may be choppy for a bit. :)
Not only large stakeholders but a large number of small-to-mid stakeholders. There are hundreds of dolphins by now and if too many of them decide to cash out at 8X rate that will put a lot of short term pressure on the market.
8X is a large ratio. One dolphin with 1/8 the SP of a whale powering down postfork will have the same selling rate as a whale did pre-fork.
On the other hand, it means whatever does happen will play out faster (13 weeks) and then be over, instead of stretching on for years.
Yeah, no doubt. I think the perception (largely accurate) is that previous declines were driven by the largest whales cashing out and dumping on the market. So the biggest fear is that that would go into overdrive... But you make a good point. Now more users can drive price declines, too! It's democratizing. :)
I'm being a little facetious here... I actually don't think we'll see a horde of dolphins cashing out. What I mostly hear from people is that they're all in and not going anywhere.
Well it looks like there was a rise and fall at 9:30-10:30 in steem prices this morning but doesn't really look like a pump and dump. just regular highs and lows pattern.