HF 19- A few thoughts now the euphoria is dying down some
Was it as bad as I feared. Not even close, at least at the start. The minnows were euphoric. Their power went up about 50-100x as my back of the envelope math suggested and as "Equality" and Linear Rewards suggested. For that they were thrilled.
Post rewards got tweeked some. Some of my posts that were basically just boosted by a handful of whale votes went down. Some of my posts that had a more standard distribution for me of whale votes and minnow votes went up. I probably ended up breaking even overall on post value. I did see some whale powered walls lost a few thousand! I saw some minnow powered walls gain a few hundred. A few shat themselves over a few hundred on a single post!
Have I seen a concentration in the top posters? I believe I have, but I have to wait longer for data to show up in the tools I use. My squinting technique isn't very scientific. Sweetsssj made 8k in 3 posts. Great for her! But that's alarming for the platform if the price of steem isn't mooning, and especially bad for distribution while it's going down a little. King's posts are back to 3k. So, that hasn't really budged. I think I see the trending page carrying more weight overall. It isn't quite in as few authors as I thought, but it's only day 2. Posts that used to make 300 are making 1200. Posts that used to make 2k are now making 3k. Pretty sure it's a bummer that trending is getting thicker because it's not like there are any new faces in it since HF19.
But by day 2 some minnows are already mentioning that their views are down. I think I see it too. Also, number of votes on some of my posts are are down relative to what I thought they would have reached in HF18. While this seems to have at least initially been a good boost for minnow votes and post rewards; I think we're going to end up with regrets over 40/10 voting policy.
Yes you raised used curation, but you spiked trending, which was already too high and HF19 seems to have hurt views.
I like linear rewards. 10X votes are too few, and some people are just starting to notice. The first hit of this was awesome. But minnows need views leading to followers to sustainably vote them out of minnowhood... this HF discourages both from what I can tell.
Ironically it makes it harder for minnows to lift up minnows because they only get 10 votes overall. That means they can't upvote comments, their own posts, and other's posts like they used to be able to. Now you only get 10 votes total to spread between those categories. (Minnows don't get the VP slider, presumably because if they did they might not have enough voting power to actually register something on the block if they slide it down). It's harder to make friends in the comments section of other minnows when you're not upvoting each other, it's harder to grow followers without that interaction, and it's gonna be harder to mature out of Minnow Land.
$0.02
I ran some quick numbers on this and came up with very high inflation (157%). What did I miss?
https://steemit.com/steem/@lexiconical/inflation-math-for-hard-fork-19-157-steem-inflation-must-be-my-error-right
Yeah. Inflation didn't change. It's still at 10% this year. so 25M tokens. It's just how's it distributed.
Hmm, thank you. Somehow, I'll get used to it =)
Activity in general is increased and more minnows and dolphins are happier... I see the positives out-compete the negatives....
http://www.worthofweb.com/website-value/steemit.com/
Dolphins are definetely happier, minnows used to vote for each other, but now that their votes are worth more and lesser votes allowed, most will just vote on bigger fishes to get attention or even whales, or better still themselves.
If I could vote on myself and get close to $20/ vote, I am surely saving them votes on myself right :/
Only time will tell how effective this HF is, the way I am seeing, minnow's reward will get back into equilibrium at what they used to be making(maybe + a penny or 2) but for dolphins and whales. Them boost are real.
It's day 2. People are still euphoric mostly over the rewards. They aren't looking that gift horse in the mouth as much, but people are going to see that it takes them longer to get out of being a Minnow with fewer views and less likelihood of a fellow minnow using 1 of their 10 votes on another minnow. I'm a big fan of Linear Rewards. It did a good thing for the minnows, but I'm pretty sure 40/10 is going to slow minnow growth.
In my opinion there is a strong correlation between what's good for minnows and what's good for platform growth, but it's not 100%. We'll have to get past day 2. I appreciate you taking the time to consider a Minnow perspective from minnows who are trying to stop being a minnow .
Also, it's lovely to see you on my wall. Have some tea.
Oh, and if you're frustrated not being able to communicate with Steemit chat down consider joining 8 other witnesses and 900 other people in the PALnet Discord Channel, which hosts the Minnow Support Project.
https://discord.gg/HYj4yvw
Buddy I am sadden to see that you did not notice me in the group i was in the group before there was even 100. Haha(Not even sure if you are replying to me)
Thanks for the reply!
I saw you in there. I know you were in there :) Glad to have you!
Once again, you continue to propagate the urban legend that after HF19 you are limited to 10 upvotes a day.
After 10 upvotes in rapid succession, your voting power is not 0% but 81.71%.
You can continue to upvote more posts and comments.
What is true is that if you want to only vote when you have 100% voting power, then you need to space your votes by at least 2 hours and 24 minutes, and yes, in this case, the maximum of upvotes at 100% is 10.
But I believe that you should upvote whatever you deem interesting, whatever your voting power.
Vcelier. I understand the rules. I make 1400 votes a day when streemian and steemvoter are working.
How about this. Pretend you're a minnow for a day. I want you to only vote with 100% upvotes. Because that's the only option they have. Tell me how many you made? Tell me if you thought it enhaned your curating experience and friendship making on the platform.
How many of them are you going to use to make $9.97 upvotes on your own comments?
hey @aggroed!! I love how deep you are diving into this stuff. I just read your pre hf19 post, and it was incredibly helpful for me in understanding it all. Everyone does seem to be riding a wave of excitement post fork...I'm by no means a minnow, but I am fairly new to the platform.
the trending sections are unfortunate
I think we should be doing whatever we can to move eyes off of them. although, I have noticed a funny thing with some of my posts, they pretty much rocket up to the first page of trending for certain tags within a four hours, and then they literally sit there and barely get a vote for the rest of week. Not sure what thats about. (I was thinking maybe people don't want to vote on it because they feel like it's made 'enough' already?)
I find myself having to use the slider a lot (and I have one)
I love upvoting comments!!! I do it very often. I appreciate that the platform 'remembers' my typical slider setting on a comment versus on a post...maybe we just need to give minnows a slider? I don't know...
another small thought is that perhaps by consolidating the power into fewer votes people will have to be more careful about what they spend them on?
There is a part of me that thinks this could be a good thing, as there really is so much rampant voting although it's hard to tell what it's driven by...I think you are dead right about the vote piling. It's like a Nash Equilibrium in game theory...as long as enough people are deciding to (autovote) on the same authors, sweetsssj does come to mind, it's free money. There is no financial incentive to not pile on your votes to a well established author, instead there's financial incentive to do it faster. Something needs to be done about that in the long run, or it will only continue to compound with time
I just made this experiment with @marcel.dubrovnik who has a little more than 1,000 SP.
Does that qualify as a minnow?
Starting from a voting power of 96.86%, after 10 upvotes at full power, the voting power was 79.10% and the last upvote was worth $0.81.
After 10 more upvotes still at full power, the voting power was 64.60% and the last upvote was worth $0.67.
That is a good experiment! What was the first vote worth at 96.86%
Between $0.95 and $0.99
OK, let's keep going and show a curve. Wanna spam another 50 votes around? I can make a graph and show people what it looks like as your power depletes. Or do you want me to make my own smurf and do it?
@marcel.dubrovnik made another 50 upvotes at full power. His voting power is now at 24.02% and his last upvote was worth $0.25.
That would be after 72 upvotes, starting at voting power of 100%, with initial post value around $1.00.
Well, this makes math pretty simple to understand right now. at ~$2/steem a 100% upvote at 1000SP= $1USD in post rewards.
Presumably that should scale linearly.
says I'm at 34%, but I think it's behind. I'm at 4.89 at a full vote and 14.4k SP.
That's roughly a third of 15k, whch is 5k which at full vote is roughly $5. That's a pretty solid estimate for right meow.
This has been a good thought experiment. thank you for your participation.
We'll see how if/how people adjust by sliding the power of their votes. Then maybe HF19 will find a stable equilibrium. Do you know the threshold of how much SP you have to have in order to have a slider?
Very interested to monitor quantity of upvoting and how it trends post HF19 though.
I think it's 1000Sp. It might only be 500SP. been a while since i've been there, but I'll ask the residents of Minnow Town.
It's desirable to have everyone feel like they are engaged and can participate. Things that zero out people's voting power unless they self rate-limit and without the appropriate controls for them to do adaptively self rate-limit need to be tweaked for sure then.
The last I checked it was 480SP! It is somewhere in steemit's FAQ!
I've read that it is 500 - https://steemit.com/hf19/@abh12345/hf19-pulling-the-ladder-up-or-more-encouragement-for-minnows-to-buy-steem-targeting-500-steem-power
My original strategy was to upvote people who made positive contributions on my posts.. but after sending the voting power to near 30 I'm going to have to rethink that..
Good evidence in support of the need for a slider for all. Or maybe different default powers for people who don't have a slider for post upvoting vs comment upvoting.
Or perhaps a button to toggle 25% or 100% voting power?
That might work, slider can be hard to use on a phone.
did you just upvote yourself $106.96? sheesh!
Highlighting the current system and how it works. We'll see how it adjusts.
I am one of the minnows that is happy that my posts now have decent earnings. This will motivate minnows to be more active here and will also boost the number of new users joining Steemit. That is good overall for Steemit.
That's the linear rewards side. I'm in favor of that.
Me too. Minnows should receive their due rewards.
AS a minnow I must say I saw this happening quite quick, and unfortunately I think the minnows will realize soon as you point out. The 10x vote actually has made me start using Facebook a little more again, unfortunately. I made a post a couple of hours after the HF19 which points out a lot of the same. But the views I didn't think was going to go this drastically low.
It also feels like a house of cards when even accounts made 5 days ago can upvote abt 15-20 cent each post, I think this actually might incentivize more people to make fake accounts/spam bots.
But all we can do is wait and see, and hopefully we will get to see more positives than negatives in the long run.
Steem on!
I can mostly agree but I still think we are early. One thing I have to disagree with you on is spending more time on facebook. No way. I can't stand that place. I have too many authors and bloggers on here to catch up with as it is. I'm loving all the play by play on the HF and its repercussion such as is written here but I know enough that I don't know enough and so I'm just going to hang on and enjoy myself. Gosh...anything is better than facebook. Way too much drama. This is more like intrigue.
I really don't see any negatives to this. People won't spam on 0.03 per new account because steemit have a robut security mechanism in place to weed duplicate accounts out etc they would need tons of accounts.
Well, 0.03 with ten accounts (which actually seems quite easy to get) you can actually quickly make more than you would by doing a streetjob in some developing countries. But of course it's not real easy, but then again people have done harder things for less pay before.. but that's just my three cents
True, better be safe and eliminate the risk.
Great post, much more eloquent than mine but saying basically the same thing. That said I've only been here a few weeks so you're in a better position to comment.
Suffice to say I'm concerned for the future but not panicking just yet. I'll certainly be following how this develops.
Minnows are doomed to either buy SP when the price dips or to bust their ass of writing, posting, commenting, upvoting, postpromotioning. It's only day two but I expect to see the changes in a few weeks. The price cannot go up because Polo has canceled Steem depos and withdrawals. There are 60 milion of $ worth of Steem there. It might try to manipulate the price of Steem as will increase the volume highly because of accumulating. If the price drops we actually might see more quality content since people will no longer vote only hot section to get into trending.
HF 19 party is over, in the following weeks we will see if anything changed but current 1 pic 500$ rewards are not natural for the price and certainly not healthy for the community in general. @aggroed
Has there been any reasons given for why Polo has canceled deposits and withdawals for Steem?
Definitely seeing this myself too. It's a mystery trying to piece together where the increase in payouts are coming from when steem is actually dropping in value. I would've thought there would be a correlation between the two but maybe there's a delay of some sort.
Being a minnow I also see fewer upvote sand views too. Talked to someone yesterday and they said they loved a post but couldn't upvote it because they had already used up all their steem power. I think once we figure out how to balance out our votes it'll be a lot more like what it used to be. Just need to find that sweet spot.
As a member of the dolphin class, I am loving HF 19 so far. As an experiment, I gave my first post-HF 19 100% vote to a new user, and... holy freekin bejeebies, my vote gave the guy $25! Before the hard fork I was able to do about $1-2. Ye gods, I feel like a mini-whale now. Today I went on a voting spree through a batch of introduction posts. It feels so good to be able to actually make a difference to people!
I've decided that I'm going to continue supporting a large number of people through my 100+ Steemvoter rules, but I've reduced each of my auto-votes to 10% for now so I don't deplete my voting power too quickly.
I only have time to read 3 or 4 good posts per day, so I will save my 100% super power votes for manually curating those exceptional posts that really deserve my attention. I'm also going to spend more time reading introduction posts, because now I have the power to really provide a nice boost for new users who need help getting started.
It's too early to tell how this is going to work out over the long run, but my initial impression is very positive. These results far exceeded my expectations.
I was also shocked how much value my votes went up too. Not nearly as high as yours but I was pleasantly surprised. However, yeah, views are down, so I'm concerned about long term prospects here. Really hope that articles written aren't going to end up in the dark side of the ether for the sake of some more power in voting.
Agreed, we mustn't accept short term gratification at the expense of Steemit's long term sustainability. Or, to put it another way, don't kill the goose that lays the golden eggs. I think new users don't have access to the vote power slider, right? I'm pretty sure there's some minimum Steem Power you need to have to get that slider. But it might help if everyone had access to that so that even little accounts could still choose to vote often if desired.
Yeah the vote slider doesn't appear until you have some level of STEEM Power. Mine started to appear when I deposited some of my accrued STEEM into STEEM POWER. My guess is that those with very little STEEM POWER don't have enough to make an impact as is, so providing a smaller percentage using a Vote Slider would actually make no difference.
I also noticed that the Trending section is becoming far more concentrated with the much larger players. That is unfortunate for those trying to get noticed with good content, but without the influence to do so. Crossing fingers here that things improve
Some of the people at the top of trending deserve to be there, they work hard and produce excellent content / services so I don't begrudge them their due. But yeah, it definitely would be good to see more new faces making it on there from time to time.
That is very kind of you to use your votes on new members. I'm sure they will really appreciate that. It is such a good feeling to know that we have so many caring people in our community.
That's one thing I really like about our community: the fact that so many people do care. There are plenty of initiatives to help people out like @minnowsupport and @curie, and I've seen lots of contests / games to give away Steem or delegate Steem Power temporarily. And people are usually quite happy to answer questions & teach newcomers how the platform works.
Sure, you still run into the occasional troll from time to time, but overall there's so much positive energy here compared to, say, Reddit or Facebook (those are the real cesspits of the Internet).
That is absolutely true about all the games and contests to make life more exciting. Sykochica surprised me by offering to donate 25 SBD to my own weekly contests. That way, even if my post doesn't generate enough to make a worthwhile prize, I at least have her SBD to give out. The first week, my prize pool was tiny and her donation was the provider of 5 SBD. The 2nd week ended just after HF19, so I was able to dole out 5 prizes worth a total of 23.489 SBD. That was fun. I'm all excited about next week's prize pool, but also a bit worried because I read that posts are getting less readers now. With only 10 votes per day, people may be reluctant to upvote and raise the amount in the prize pool. Time will tell I guess.
I hope people realize they don't always have to vote at 100% all the time, they can spread their votes around just as before by dialing down the slider a little. I'm gonna go check out your latest contest post right now. :-)
I'm quite confident that those who have sliders will know how to use them.
Thanks for looking at my page. I hope you find something of interest there. Way at the bottom (2nd post) I posted a video about self-manipulation for back pain (allowed me to break free of visiting chiropractors). Lots of people have back problems and this could help many. Of course I won't get any more pay-outs from it, but I do wish to help as many as I can, so I keep promoting that video. If you know anyone suffering from back pain, please direct them to it because there is a good chance it can help them.