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RE: Dow Jones Industrial (DJI)
I believe that a bear market has already started. I also believe that the B wave rally could last most of 2019 and cause everyone to think it's still a bull market when it's only a bear rally.
We have pretty similar thoughts on this problem. Thing is, taxes and expenses are getting more expensive, and wages don't. One thing you can always rely on is the bond market. It does not lie and it's the best indicator. https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php But all the costs are getting high because currencies are getting dumped. All FIAT currencies are worth less everyday,and wages are not being calculated at the same pace
In a market crash like 2008; deflationary steps rule. This means prices drop and buying power of dollar can increase.
I get your picture. That crash has never been fixed. All that has been done since than, is ....a lot of QEs, credit swaps.... which only do good to banks, because they can play with free money again. This money does not go to people like you and me. It is not transfered into our pockets. Banks are just loaning it out. We actually pay for bankers through lack of inflation, showing in our wages. REAL inflation is always hidden. Go on shadowstats. You will see that real inflation is around 7%. So wages would have to be higher for 7% every year, just to get by. But that's not the case. That will work....until it just doesn't. Because now all corporations would have to pay all the debt. But they always have a kind of turnarounds. Just ask anyone in France or any other country with same problem...how their financial system is doing. Same thing is in U.S. and other parts of EU (except Germany, but that's long story- all from 1950s and how it all started after the war...)
But then the Fed can print and will be able to service debts to 100 Trillion. Those in debt actually die very very slowly. So, even this correction won't be that death blow.
Real number, with all the outsourced debts is well over 100 trillion already. But you can do this as long as other countries believe in your currency and they use it for bigger credits. American dollar is losing it's ground as world reserve currency. Russia and China already have their own financial system, their own cards, and they trade with each other, without US dollar. Same thing is happening with other countries, fully in debt or with extreme inflation (where crypto currencies are being massively used - like Dash in Venezuela...) So, what USA was doing in last 50 years, was just printing money, and other countries were producing actual goods, and they made a trade. Pretty good and extremely cheap for US, I'd say. But that is all turning around. Slowly but surely. Just look at the average worker. So now when other countries don't want to use US dollar as much as before, US banks (and US citizen) will see real problem. Probably most countries, because central banks all around the world work together. No currency lasted forever. All of them (which are not backed by silver/gold) turn to zero in the end. And same thing is waiting for USD and eventually EUR (and all other currencies around the world). And the reason for that is greed. Nothing else.