What can we learn from the raw data on violent crime, the conditions in places where crime rates are highest, and the numerous factors that may affect these problems?

Violent Crime, Firearm Availability, and Self-Defense

Violent Crime Rates

Let's begin with the F.B.I. Uniform Crime Report for 2015, the most recent complete data set available. The F.B.I. includes all crime reported, not just convictions. There is a steady downward trend across the board, whether homicide, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, property crime, burglary, larceny-theft, or motor vehicle theft. The only point of concern is the small uptick in several categories over the past few years. For a broader analysis, the Uniform Crime Report for 2005 similarly shows this downward trend beginning after a peak in crime rates in about 1991. As such, it is safe to say that crime rates have plummeted by about 50% in all categories over the past 25 years.

The Proliferation of Firearms

Has the number of firearm owners or the number of firearms in civilian hands declined during this same timeframe? We don't know. We do have statistics for the number of firearms manufactured and sold though, and gun sales have set many records over the past 25 years..

There is also a handy animated map showing the changes over time as states have relaxed their restrictions over the past 30 years. It has become easier in most states to legally carry firearms both openly or concealed, often without any permit process at all.

If more firearms correlated with more violence, shouldn't the violent crime rate data show something other than a massive decrease in violent crime?

Firearms and self-defense

Davi Barker is an independent journalist and investigative reporter (among many other things) who made an effort in 2012 to compile statistics on rampage shootings and provide a better understanding of the effect of prompt action against shooters versus waiting for police intervention. His data and methodology are clearly presented and there is a distinct indication that response by the intended victims, especially armed response, cuts the fatality rate dramatically.

The first point I want to draw your attention to is that roughly half of shooting rampages end in suicide anyway. What that means is that police are not ever in a position to stop most of them. Only the civilians present at the time of the shooting have any opportunity to stop those shooters. That’s probably more important than the statistic itself. In a shooting rampage, counting on the police to intervene at all is a coin flip at best.

Second, within the civilian category 11 of the 17 shootings were stopped by unarmed civilians. What’s amazing about that is that whether armed or not, when a civilian plays hero it seems to save a lot of lives. The courthouse shooting in Tyler, Texas was the only incident where the heroic civilian was killed. In that incident the hero was armed with a handgun and the villain was armed with a rifle and body armor. If you compare the average of people killed in shootings stopped by armed civilians and unarmed civilians you get 1.8 and 2.6 but that’s not nearly as significant as the difference between a proactive civilian, and a cowering civilian who waits for police.

This shows that in cases where there is an attempted mass shooting, direct action, and especially armed direct action, saves lives and stops an assault. Often, this will be before the police can even be contacted in the first place. After all, in order for the police to respond, they first need to know there is a problem, and then they need to arrive on-scene and follow their active shooter procedures. Ain't nobody got time fo' dat. YOU are the first responder when YOU are faced with disaster.

Suicide

The US does not have an unusually high suicide rate. While guns are often used for suicide, their availability is clearly not causing a suicide epidemic in the US. Suicide is a complex issue with many contributing factors, but a myopic focus on firearms clearly skews away from rational analysis. More responsible reporting discusses the matter in far more depth.

Accidental Homicide

Accidental shootings have been declining dramatically along with violent crime. According to the National Shooting Sports Foundation 2013 report,

Firearm-related fatalities in the U.S. have been decreasing consistently since record-keeping began in 1903 and dramatically in the last 20 years.

Gun Control Legislation

The Effect of Gun Control Laws

The Federal Assault Weapon Ban enacted under the Clinton administration in 1994 clearly cannot be credited with a reduction in violent crimes, suicides, or accidental deaths. There was no resurgence in crime following the sunset of that bill. As such, this law must be considered security theater rather than a practical intervention, and any demand for its reinstatement or the enactment of similar legislation must be rejected.

Further, legality has nothing whatsoever to do with criminality. Many criminal things are "legal," and many non-criminal things are "illegal." If there is no victim, there is no crime. If there is no crime, enforcement of the law is criminal. Declaring the mere ownership of an inanimate object "illegal" is claiming the right to send men with guns to commit violence against people who have committed no actual crime.

Assault Weapons

What is an "Assault Weapon," though? California's numerous restrictions and the Clinton ban targeted specific cosmetic features on various firearms.

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But what effect do these features have on the functionality of the firearm? Are better ergonomics, modern materials, and other features that do not affect the basic mechanism of a firearm really things that should be declared "illegal?" Many states have specifically sought to impose restrictions on magazine capacity, based on the use of standard-capacity magazines in mass shootings, but a higher magazine capacity is far more advantageous to the one in a defensive position than to the aggressor.

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Both rifles are Ruger Mini-14 carbines firing the exact same .223-caliber ammunition. Both only fire a single round each time the trigger is pressed. Both accept the same magazines. They differ only in appearance. Why does the one with a modern polymer stock, ergonomic grip, and adjustable stock seem "evil" to so many people?

Banning Scary Things

Now let's step aside and look at another scary object that is banned in many parts of the world: The switchblade knife.

We have all seen the movies where gangsters carry these deadly weapons and use them in brutal street fights, right? They play a role in a major musical! These weapons are surely the tool of choice for people out to commit violence, right? Well... Not so much. Switchblades are no better than any other knife in combat, and typically worse than most. The blade retention mechanism isn't especially strong, and the blade is thin and narrow. It's better than a penknife, perhaps, but anyone expecting to use a knife for combat is likely to choose a fixed-blade knife with a serious guard and a sturdy blade. Switchblades are flashy intimidation at best. Even Crocodile Dundee got this one right!

But do you know where a switchblade is really useful? Any time you might need a knife for serious work, and only have one hand free to operate it. Modern pocket knives often have a thumb stud or even a spring-assisted opening mechanism for this reason. Banning switchblades was another example of politicians taking advantage of public paranoia fueled by the media and yellow journalism to perform some security theater to the detriment of the public.

So About Those Assault Weapons...

Can you see the parallel? Movies and television shows distort the public's perception of inanimate objects that have no inherent criminal traits and serve legitimate purposes. "Assault Weapon" is a meaningless term used by sophists pursuing an agenda that has no relation to the actual problems and circumstances in question.

Further, to those in the firearms industry, the similar term "assault rifle" typically means a select-fire weapon capable of firing more than one round when the trigger is pressed. Burst-fire and fully-automatic firearms have been effectively outlawed from civilian ownership for nearly a century, and US production ended 30 years ago when gun-grabber Ronald Reagan banned it altogether by signing a bill with an Orwellian doublespeak title. Between the tax stamp requirement and waiting periods, legal ownership of actual assault rifles like the M-16 used by the military is nearly impossible. An AR-15 is mechanically different internally from an M-16, and their external appearance similarities are entirely irrelevant.

The news media of today in an effort to fill the 24-hour news cycle with sensationalism. Declaring objects "illegal" and punishing people for owning them looks to the public like decisive action in response to a threat, but it actually harms innocent people while funneling more power to government bureaucracy and ignoring the root problems altogether.

Oh, and "AR" stands for "ArmaLite Rifle," not "assault rifle." So don't even bother with that line of argumentation.

The Root Problems

This is truly a massive subject, and can only be covered in brief with a look at a few contributing factors.

The Black Market

Black markets are violent environments where buyers, sellers, and distributes compete for territory with no legal recourse due to government prohibitions. Prices are driven up by the threat of police intervention and the difficulty of managing the supply chain, resulting in increased crime to fund the fueling of addictions and increasing the incentives for violent territorial conflicts.

Are these due to an inherent danger in the prohibited substances, or due to the artificial environment created in the first place by police aggression against people who are initially not engaging in fundamentally criminal activity? Again, declaring an inanimate object "illegal" is claiming the right to send men with guns to commit violence against people who have committed no actual crime. I am not arguing that drugs are good for people, but individuals own themselves and have the right to do things I dislike, or even harm themselves. If there is no aggression -no victim of trespass against person, property, or liberty - there is no crime. Enforcement of laws against non-crimes is the root of black market violence.

Incarceration rates

With the possible exception of tiny Seychelles, The USA has the highest incarceration rate in the world. This massive prison population creates a class of people who should not be criminals, but the "Just Us" system condemns them to lives filled with lost opportunities. This cannot help but increase the odds that people will commit petty crimes just to survive, or turn to organized crime to make a living.

Economic Distress

Blame is heaped upon the free market for the boom-bust business cycle, outsourced jobs, price inflation, high housing costs, low employment prospects, and other economic failings. There isn't room in this essay to cover the details, but in short, this is one of the most idiotic arguments in the history of ever and you look stupid when you make it.

The US does not have a free market. The business cycle is a consequence of interest rate manipulation by the Federal Reserve, and the boom rather than the bust is where the problem lies. The job market is heavily regulated by the government, which makes business prohibitively difficult in the US. Price inflation is a consequence of central banks inflating the money supply combined with the exponential effect of new taxes and regulatory costs at every stage of production being bundled into the final cost of goods and services. Housing costs are high in large part due to laws restricting the availability of truly affordable housing, plus the distortion of subsidies, and the aforementioned monetary manipulations. Employment is difficult because of everything mentioned thus far, along with the regulatory burdens heaped upon employers.

Economic distress almost always leads to increased crime as desperate people seek to satisfy their wants by coercive means because it's easier than using cooperative means. Political intervention invariably creates such perverse incentives.

Where do we see the highest crime rates? Urban centers with endemic poverty, aggressive police enforcement of "the law," violent black markets, and a disarmed populace. People whose business is the manufacture or smuggling of verboten goods are not hampered in weapon acquisition though.

Serious Solutions

Serious discussion on firearms requires education instead of legislation.

Firearm Safety Rules

These rules are offered in every gun safety program, posted at every shooting range, and included in the manuals of every firearm I have seen. The number, wording, and order may differ from source to source, but the principles are always the same.

1. Always treat every gun as if it is loaded.
   • Unless the action is open and you can visually inspect the chamber and feed mechanism, assume the gun is loaded.
   • Yes, even if you just checked it a second ago.
   • No, there are no exceptions.
2. Never point a gun at anything you don't intend to shoot.
   • No jokes. No pranks. No goofing off. No exceptions.
3. Always keep your finger straight and off the trigger until you are ready to fire.
   • keep your booger hook off the bang switch!
4. If your firearm has a manual safety, keep the gun on "safe" until you are ready to fire.
   • Mechanical safeties can fail, are never a substitute for the other rules.
5. Do not fire unless you are sure of your target and know whether there is anyone or anything in danger beyond it.
   • Never fire at noise or movement.
   • Know what is downrange, and don't fire if you have doubts or concerns.
   • A hillside is the ideal backstop.

Gun Training with the Non-Aggression Principle

Political Action?

Don't assume that politicians can fix anything, and don't fall for their promises. Instead, build alternatives. Build your community. progress comes from the grassroots, not from a central planner. Educate yourself. Educate your friends and neighbors. Apply a skeptical analysis to media and political promises. Check the data. Verify the assumptions. Question the chains of reasoning. Reject lies and propaganda. Think about things from a new perspective. Apply the Golden Rule and the non-aggression principle to measure whether any proposals meet the basic moral rules for justice. Be free in an unfree world regardless of the opinions of others.