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RE: First observations of my RAC prediction experiment
jefpata, I'm wondering the reason why you are trying to predict RAC?
Are you thinking of publishing the predictive results?
Courtesy of @joshoeah
jefpata, I'm wondering the reason why you are trying to predict RAC?
Are you thinking of publishing the predictive results?
Courtesy of @joshoeah
Maybe I should have mentioned that in the article. Was a bit too enthousiastic :-s Basically it is the first step in trying/estimating PoW reward. You might think profit is my first goal but it is not. There are always lots of talks about which project to choose. Some don't care about profit. Others want to maximise. Some don't dare changing to something they like better. Lots of reasons. The current answer almost always is 'it depends'. And it does. But estimating the RAC and combine it with mag can give an indication. Gathering more data on how it works exactly, what the strong points and weaknesses are might benefit gridcoin. The system is based around but most of us admit it is not perfect. Every bit of understanding might help in the future.
jefpatat, if you are going to collate results into some form of guide offering information to our community I'm with you all the way.
If I can help by giving you stats from my crunching the offer is open.
I would like to see some objective statistics gathered which will be of benefit to everyone, after all we are a transparent community and there are no jealously guarded secrets.
Contact me on slack if you wish my help and we'll have a discussion.
Courtesy of @joshoeah
Exactly. That's the spirit. I'm actually thinking of going a step further and make a tool that estimates the future RAC (and GRC) based on the past. There are lots of constraints to do so, but under circumstances it should be possible to some extent.
In the meantime I got lucky and got data for both observation 2 and 3. My calculations work. It's not easy however to figure out how to merge these in the estimation. At least now I can try and simulate.
Once I get further I will request for more data. I will possibly be looking for the two extremes. Hosts that just start up a project and hosts that have reached a stable RAC.
Stable RAC? Well if you could call any RAC stable I could offer you that . Been crunching the same projects for a while.
Courtesy of @joshoeah
Which project and how long?