Some progress on my RAC estimation experiment

11 days ago

I made some progress with my RAC estimation experiment. At the moment I'm doing all work manually in a spreadsheet. As mentioned in a previous post I keep an eye on the hosts details site an write down the RAC from time to time. The host is running 24/7. Please note that at this time this is a very limited experiment. Some results will scale but I'm not sure yet to what extend.

What's new? I managed to prove that my understanding of the RAC calculation is sufficient to make an exact calculation of the RAC which corresponds with what the server reports.

In the chart the light blue dots is the RAC as calculated by the project server. RAC changes when a WU is completed and verified and is not stored, so cannot be viewed historically. So I don't have a blue dot everywhere, just where I checked. The orange series is my calculations based on the tasks info available from the server. The grey dots represent the error of my calculation compared to the servers calculation.

As you can see the fault is very low. Most probably this is due to the precision of the figures shown on the site. The site only shows 2 significant digits and a slight error there might be enough. I did not check in further detail as these numbers seem to confirm my understanding of the calculation.

As you can see as well, my estimation is off. I have an idea why and how to correct but haven't got the time yet to try it out.

More to come...

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Congratulations! This post has been upvoted from the communal account, @minnowsupport, by Jef Patat from the Minnow Support Project. It's a witness project run by aggroed, ausbitbank, teamsteem, theprophet0, someguy123, neoxian, followbtcnews/crimsonclad, and netuoso. The goal is to help Steemit grow by supporting Minnows and creating a social network. Please find us in the Peace, Abundance, and Liberty Network (PALnet) Discord Channel. It's a completely public and open space to all members of the Steemit community who voluntarily choose to be there.

This post has received a 1.56 % upvote from @drotto thanks to: @banjo.

Following this project. Thanks for keeping us up to date = )

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It's a way of sharing my enthusiasm. Where's the fun if you can't share it ;-)

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If things go to my imagination (which the community might not approve), the RAC will be removed from reward calculation and replaced by total credit gain.

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Could you elaborate on total credit gain? Is this the total credit gain per project (similar to the current RAC approach) or total credit gain for all projects combined? Thanks.

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It would still be on a per project basis, due to the vastly different rates at which individual projects hand out credit.

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That's the long term goal AFAIK. But at the moment it's still here. I'm trying to gain a better understanding, that won't hurt. It might help the discussion which is one of my goals. Another one is that I might gather data which we could use to simulate future proposals. Ultimately it's a question of how Gridcoin wants to reward contribution to science.

There are always talks about the fact that RAC is obsolete but other ideas don't make it right now.

Can someone enlighten us on the difficulties with total credit. To be honest: I forgot. (The credit needs to be stored in the chain?)

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I don't think there are any major difficulties. It just takes time to design and work to make reality. And this one, is not something we can change few lines and be it. This is unknown.

@jefpatat got you a $3.45 @minnowbooster upgoat, nice!
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cool update to your project @jefpatat ! Iam looking forward to see more of it, especially when you tweaked your estimations :D
Go Gridcoin !

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I think I have them right but I need some more data to verify. I discovered something I didn't expect but need some more time to look into it. Stay tuned ;-)

Awesome - looking forward to your update!

Thought I'd chip in that you are not actually awarded credit until your counterpart has finished running the same job (most projects run each job twice). For projects like SETI, which has deadlines along the lines of 2 months from the issue date of the WU, this can cause huge delays in credit being awarded for your compute.

It may (or may not) be relevant in explaining the error in your estimates.

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I'm aware of it. That's why I started with VGTU. It seems they are verified right away. Or maybe no verification is necessary? Would be open to hacking if so.

I think it's not related but it is making things more complex. More to come. Don't have enough time...

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They may just not verify their jobs. As VGTU is just running an optimisation algorithm, it's probably pretty hard to fake results in a detrimental way.